Karnataka assembly polls: All surveys indicate Congress edge over BJP

There will be a tough electoral fight between the Congress and the BJP in the Karnataka assembly elections later this year, but all surveys right now indicate that the Congress is ahead of the BJP in the game.

BJP’s mass leader and the man who helped open the South Gate for the saffron party — BS Yediyurappa — was forced to resign from the CM’s post. Corruption charges against the present Basavaraj Bommai government, infights among BJP leaders, and the growing leadership of Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar in the Congress are considered major factors in the pre-election survey reports.

There have been four such reports so far, including the internal surveys of the BJP, the Congress, the state intelligence, and the Indian Political Surveys and Strategies (IPSS) team with the SAS Group, Hyderabad. The Federal accessed the first three survey reports through sources, and all inputs indicate that in the present circumstances, the Congress will emerge as the single largest party, unless there is a change in the electoral mood after any last-minute strategies by the BJP.

Survey by IPSS

The survey done by IPSS with the SAS Group, Hyderabad, has said that Congress will get more seats in the assembly elections. The survey was conducted in three phases between November 20, 2022, and January 12, 2023, in all regions of the state. Vishwanthan Murthy of IIT Chennai, the psephologist and political strategist of SAS Group, and DR Siva Raj, have approved the survey.

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According to the survey, the ruling BJP will get 65 to 76 seats, Congress will get 108 to 114, JDS will get 24 to 30 seats, and others will get around seven seats. Also, the vote share will be 34% for BJP, 40% for Congress, and 17% for JDS, whereas it was 36.35%, 38.14%, and 18.30% for BJP, Congress, and JDS, respectively, in the 2018 assembly elections.

The main factors that will play prominent roles in the coming assembly elections are Inflation, farmer problems, raising farmer debts and MSP for agricultural products, unemployment, corruption issues, a hike in LPG, petrol, and essential commodity prices, sand and liquor mafia, lack of medical and basic infrastructure, real-estate/land mafia, communal incidents, MLA poaching, PSI scam, 40% commission allegation by contractors, deleting of voters’ list, Belagavi border dispute, etc.

The survey has also observed that the man who was responsible for opening the South Gate to the BJP, BS Yediyurappa, was shoved out of the CM’s chair because of internal party strife. BSY is a mass leader and has maximum support from the Lingayat community. But the present CM, Bommai, is not a mass leader and does not have the full support of the Lingayat community. He has also failed to stop groupism in the BJP.

It has also been observed that the Congress has more chances because of the strong leadership of Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar. Congress has maximum support from Kuruba, Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe, Muslim, and OBC communities, the report explained. Vokkaliga votes will be divided between JDS, Congress, BJP, and others, and the ratio of the divide is 50:38:10:2 in the Old Mysuru region, it observed.

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BJP survey

According to the BJP’s internal surveys, several incumbent MLAs will retain their seats; Congress will get 90 seats, and JDS around 30. Interestingly, around 40 seats are “uncertain.” Those uncertain seats will be the deciding factor, according to these.

Also, sources say the recent fortnightly surveys of the BJP indicate even fewer seats in the elections because of several socio-economic and political factors. That is why the BJP central leadership is trying to execute several plans to reach out to other castes and communities other than the traditional support bases, including Lingayats.

Intelligence report

Intelligence sources said they have submitted a report to the government, detailing that the primary fight will be between the BJP and the Congress, in which the latter is leading. The projected seat numbers are 80 to 90 for BJP, 90 to 100 for the Congress, and 30 to 40 for the JDS.

Also read: Amid Karnataka BJP leadership crisis, RSS scans Vokkaliga candidates

Sources said the agency has pointed out the possibility of the BJP forming a government with the support of JDS, if only the latter crosses 40 and makes Congress’s future uncertain. The agency has also pointed out that the anti-incumbency factors, infights between the leaders, and the Lingayat-Panchamasali issue are the major factors for the dip of numbers in the MLA list.

Congress survey

According to the Congress’s internal survey, it has better chances in the elections than the BJP. It shows that the party will cross 120 to form the government. However, the report apparently says that the JDS is the worrying factor, as it is a strong force in the Old Mysuru region, which is a Vokkaliga heartland. The report has also doubted the BJP for its support to JDS to get more seats to disturb the Congress.

Reddy factor

The IPSS survey also says that the Kalyana Rajya Pragathi Paksha, the new party formed by mining baron Gali Janardhan Reddy, will become the deciding factor for nine to 11 seats in Koppal, Gangavathi, Bellary, Kolar, and Raichur districts. If the JDS, in alliance with Telangana’s BRS party, wins around 32 to 37 seats, and if All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) contests, it may affect six to seven constituencies, the report has said.