Kashmir & Kabul: Return of Taliban spells danger in the Valley

The return of Taliban in Afghanistan after two decades begs the question: Will the change of guard in Kabul impact the political and security situation in Kashmir?
There is no easy answer.

Some defence experts predict a spike in armed insurgency in the valley. Others say that all speculations and anxieties in this regard are far-fetched. Having said that, some political scientists are of the view that Kashmir’s militancy will receive a psychological boost from the fact that the Afghan fighters have succeeded in throwing out two big foreign powers from their soil in four decades – the erstwhile United States of Soviet Republic (USSR) in 1988-89 and the United States of America (USA) in 2021.

Who are the Taliban?

In the Pashto language, the word Taliban roughly stands for “students”. Following the complete withdrawal of the USSR troops from war-torn Afghanistan in February 1989, the Taliban fighters emerged in the northern regions of Pakistan. The Taliban are referred to as “country boys” who first appeared in religious seminaries. Their movement is also known as the Pashtun movement.

The Taliban received a shot in the arm in 1996 when they occupied the seat of power in Kabul and remained in control till September 2001. They were sharply criticised by the international community for implementing the Sharia law in a puritanical form. Their policies, especially toward women, were described as regressive. Only three countries — Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — had recognised the Taliban government at the time.

Is this Taliban different from the previous one?

Meanwhile, some experts claim that the Taliban 2.0 is an improved version of Taliban 1.0, as the influential insurgent group has now understood the power and importance of media propaganda, negotiation skills, global recognition, international relations, trade and commerce, and how to win friends and minimise foes.

That is perhaps why Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen is repeatedly talking about the formation of an “inclusive government” in Afghanistan and reassuring the world through a series of television interviews that the Afghan women will be allowed to receive education and work under their rule.

How is the emerging situation in Afghanistan impacting Kashmir? Or, will it impact Kashmir at all? Is there a possibility of a spill over effect over Kashmir?

Ghazala Wahab, Executive Editor of Force Magazine and co-author of the book Dragon On Our Doorsteps, sees the larger picture. She argues that the United States’ exit and Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan is an advantage to China and Pakistan.

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“China and Pakistan will have a wide sweep from Xinjiang to Kabul. If Pakistan manages significant influence over the Taliban and China is convinced that there will be no export of radicalisation into Xinjiang, the Wakhan corridor may be opened for trade. None of this will leave Kashmir unaffected,” Wahab told The Federal.

Defence experts Pravin Sawhney is convinced that once the Taliban consolidate their power and the region stabilises there will be a consolidated front comprising China, Pakistan and the Taliban. According to Sawhney, this will not leave Kashmir unaffected.

Professor Siddiq Wahid, a noted historian and academic, cautions that it is a bit early in the game to comment on the impact, particularly on the military and political front, of the U.S exit from Afghanistan.

“However, the psychological impact is already visible in Kashmir; namely, some confidence from the failure of New Delhi’s strategy of an Afghanistan policy based almost solely on negating Pakistan,” Dr Wahid told The Federal, adding that, “India now has to address a possible two-front boundary problem by having to face Pakistan and China simultaneously.”

Dr Wahid, who is also the former Vice-Chancellor of the south Kashmir-based Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST), noted that “such psychological impacts are usually ephemeral.”

In his appreciation, the true impact on Jammu and Kashmir because of the U.S. debacle in Afghanistan will become perceptible “once the Sino-United States rivalry in South Asia defines itself.”

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In that context, he says that “the Indian policy for South Asia from Gilgit-Baltistan in the west to Arunachal Pradesh in the east, inclusive of Jammu and Kashmir on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC), will be critical.”

The Taliban conquest of the capital city, Kabul, was largely bloodless. There was no violence of significant magnitude. After the two-decade-long presence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) foreign troops in Afghanistan, the local militia has swiftly gained control over the country.

Muhammad Tahir, a student of international relations and academic, in his piece published in the Srinagar-based English daily Kashmir Observer, argued: “The ongoing changes in Afghanistan are detrimental to India’s strategic and security interests (particularly with respect to the Kashmir situation) is a widely believed theory and now echoes frequently among experts.”

‘Kashmir is not Afghanistan’

Dr. Noor Ahmad Baba, one of the senior-most professors of political science, has a different take on the subject. “Kashmir is not Afghanistan. The Taliban fighters are not entering Kashmir as some assume or wish. There is smart fencing at the LoC and the security is robust in Jammu and Kashmir,” said Dr Baba.

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However, he quickly added that “the developments in Afghanistan will have a larger strategic implication. And, in that context, it is advantageous to Pakistan and China. Once Afghanistan stabilises, Pakistan will be relatively freed from the northern frontiers and it will focus on the western side.”

Professor Baba argued that a stable Afghanistan would also facilitate Pakistan’s unhindered access to Central Asia for trade and commerce.

“The economic and strategic impact of the situation in Afghanistan will have an adverse impact on India if it continues with its current Pakistan game plan. Also, Beijing’s One Belt One Road initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will increase the economic activity in the region, much to India’s chagrin.”

China and Pakistan refer to each other as “all-weather friends” and “iron brothers”. In Dr. Baba’s view, the already existing robust relationship between China and Pakistan will only improve. India has to do a rethink on its current Pakistan policy, which is not working to New Delhi’s long-term advantage.”

The political scientist also believes that the situation in Afghanistan has a psychological bearing on the situation in Kashmir, a part of it is pragmatic and a part is euphoric in nature. “Definitely, it is a setback for pro-India forces in Kashmir and a major boost for the pro-independence camp. The Taliban’s victory has generated hope for the latter camp.”

On his part, Inspector General of Jammu and Kashmir Police (Kashmir Range) Vijay Kumar said recently that the government forces personnel “are ready to deal with the challenge in a professional manner” if any foreigners, including Taliban militants, enter Kashmir.

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The IGP also claimed that the police force have the human and technical intelligence available to deal with the challenge.

At present, the security grid in Kashmir claims that the militancy is at its lowest ebb. Jammu and Kashmir Police said that the number of active militants in the region is about 200.

This could, however, change soon.