Upendra Kushwaha’s exit from JD(U) likely to dent votebank of Grand Alliance

Ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha election, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) suffered a major jolt on Monday when estranged senior party leader Upendra Kushwaha resigned from the party and announced formation of his own party, Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD).

The exit of Kushwaha from JD(U) is likely to be a major setback for the RJD-led Grand Alliance (GA) as it would lead to a split in Kushwaha votes in the Lok Saha election.

Though Kushwaha has been with Nitish since 1990s – during the Samata Party days – the two leaders have a love-hate relationship. Samata Party, an offshoot of the Janata Dal, was formed in 1994 by former defence and railway minister late George Fernandes and Nitish. It later merged with JD(U) of late Sharad Yadav in 2003.

BJP`s gain?

After Nitish left the NDA to form the government with the Grand Alliance – also comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress — last August, the BJP had started recalibrating its strategy by reposing its faith in LJP (Ram Vilas) chief and MP Chirag Paswan by engaging him in the campaigning for the state’s by-elections held post-split. The BJP won two out of the three by-elections, giving it confidence that everything was not lost for it.

Also read: Kushwaha quits JDU, floats new party

Chirag belongs to Dushad caste, which constitutes five per cent of the state’s population. If Chirag extends his support to BJP in the Lok Sabha election, the saffron party can hope to improve its vote share. It is another matter that he does not have a cordial relationship with his uncle and Union minister Pashupati Kumar Paras.

The BJP is also eyeing to bring to its fold another small player, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief and former minister Mukesh Sahni.

The BJP had also propped up former Union minister RCP Singh against Nitish as the latter alleged that the saffron party was trying to stage a coup against his government through the estranged JD(U) leader. Singh had fallen out with Nitish after the latter refused to re-nominate him to Rajya Sabha, costing him his ministerial post in the Union cabinet. Later, he resigned from the party.

Kushwaha factor

The BJP, which was virtually left in the lurch after Nitish snapped ties with it last August, is likely to gain electorally as Kushwaha will surely cut into Koeri votes, remarked political analyst Indrajit Singh.

He said that Nitish would be weakened after Kushwaha’s departure as it would encourage RJD to exert more pressure on the CM to relinquish his post for Tejashwi Yadav. The BJP, he said, may align with Kushwaha`s party in 2024 Lok Sabha election as he wields good command over voters belonging to his caste.

Kushwahas make up the largest OBC block in Bihar after Yadavs; it is estimated that they constitute around seven per cent of the state’s population. Kushwaha is one of the most prominent faces of the Koeri caste, which along with Kurmis, forms Kurmi-Koeri or ‘Luv-Kush’ caste combination in Bihar. The Kurmis and Koeris roughly constitute 10 per cent of the state`s population.

Anti-Yadav strategy

Kushwaha`s sharp attack on RJD chief Lalu Prasad and his son and Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav is seen as a ploy to build his new party on the anti-Yadav sentiment, particularly among extremely backward castes (EBCs).

Also read: Bihar: Nitish Kumar rejects Kushwaha’s claim of JD(U) getting weak

Nitish has been successful in creating a strong support base among EBCs by implementing various welfare schemes, but his appeal among them has suffered a dent after he aligned with RJD.

The EBCs’ antipathy towards RJD is understandable as they suffered the hegemony of Yadavs during the RJD rule from 1990 to 2005, remarked political observer Pushya Mitra.

When pointed that the EBCs had voted for the Grand Alliance in 2015 assembly election, Mitra said, “It should not be forgotten that RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat`s advocacy for review of reservation policy had helped consolidate anti-BJP votes and the Grand Alliance won 178 of the total 243 seats.”

Rebel at heart?

This is the third time since 2009 when Kushwaha has left the JD(U). After quitting the party the first time, he had joined the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

In 2007, after falling out with Nitish, he was expelled from JD(U). He had then launched Rashtriya Samata Party in February 2009, but merged it with JD(U) in November 2009 after he buried the hatched with Nitish. At that time too he had accused Nitish of being surrounded by a coterie and was not listening to those committed to the party`s cause, same allegation which he has made this time too.

Kushwaha was then elected to Rajya Sabha, but he resigned from the JD(U) again in January 2013, protesting against Nitish’s autocratic ways and founded Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) in March. He had allied with the NDA in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and won all three seats it contested.

Emotional card

This time, rather deftly, Kushwaha played an emotional card, asking Nitish to give his ‘share’ from the JD(U)`s political wealth. His remark was seen as a demand for adequate representation to Koeris in the government and the party organisation.

Kushwaha reminded Nitish of how the latter had demanded his share (adequate representation to Kurmis) from RJD chief Lalu Prasad during ‘Kurmi Chetana rally’ in 1994.

Initially, Nitish was reluctant to participate in the rally as he was apprehensive it would brand him as a caste leader, but he later conceded to the demand of his senior party colleagues.

Also read: Upendra Kushwaha demands share in ‘ancestral property’ as Nitish tells him to quit JD(U)

The Kurmi Mahachetana rally helped Nitish cash in on the growing disenchantment with the RJD regime then. The RJD was finally ousted from power in assembly elections held in 2005 after Nitish fought the election with the BJP.

So, Kushwaha is trying to create same level of support for himself by whipping up caste sentiments, but it will be a long rope for him to climb, remarked a political analyst.

Kushwaha though later amended his statement during his press meet on Monday by contending that what share he should ask from Nitish when the latter had mortgaged the party in the hands of RJD.