NDA vs INDIA: Who are the fence-sitters ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls?
As the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the just formed Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) of the Congress and allies prepare to contest next year’s parliamentary elections, some half-a-dozen parties across the country seem not to have decided yet which way to lean.
Despite signals that some may end up throwing in their lot with the NDA and some may shake hands with INDIA, there is still uncertainty regarding the YSR Congress Party, Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Janata Dal (Secular), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), among others.
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YSR-CP: Eye on NDA
Led by Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy, the YSR Congress Party was formed after a split from the Congress, reducing the latter to a pale shadow of its original self in the southern state. But the YSR-CP and Jagan have been dogged by allegations of nepotism, corruption as well as poor governance. The party has carefully sided with the BJP all these years but the saffron party is now trying to cut it to size by aligning with its rivals, the TDP and the Jana Sena Party of actor-politician Kalyan.
TDP: Naidu’s mathÂ
Once the glue to a national front ranged against the BJP, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has been badly hit by the growth of the YSR-CP and is struggling to make itself relevant again in Andhra Pradesh politics. Having aligned with the BJP of Narendra Modi and then dumping it, TDP leader and former chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu is attempting his best to get back into the good books of the BJP. If an alliance does come about, Naidu would like to be the chief minister of Andhra again – a prospect not very pleasing to some in the BJP.
JD(S): Leader vs cadres
Although its supreme leader and former Prime Minister HD Dewe Gowda remain suspicious of the BJP, Gowda’s son and former Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy is keen on the tie-up. It’s mostly because of deeper antipathy towards the Congress, which routed his party in the state assembly elections only two months earlier.
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But the JD(S)’ middle ranking leaders and much of its cadres are against an alliance with the BJP, knowing it will further hurt their party vis-Ã -vis the minority votes. The Vokkaliga caste card also plays a role; and not all Vokkaliga leaders in the Karnataka BJP want to embrace Kumaraswamy. He is undoubtedly in a political dilemma as of today.
BJD: Dividend of neutrality
The astute Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, who heads the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), has maintained strong personal bonds with Modi, virtually nullifying the growth of the BJP in his state. Naveen has chosen not to align with opposition leaders despite invitations in the past. His aim is to further strengthen the BJD both in the Odisha assembly and also pocket most of the parliamentary seats in the state.
On his part, Modi does not want to rock Patnaik’s boat because his help in Parliament has proved useful in the past. It doesn’t look like he will align with anyone in 2024, at least until he knows who will be forming the next government.
BSP: Solo, but perhaps not
The mercurial Mayawati, once touted as a possible prime minister, has declared that her party will contest the parliamentary elections next years on its own without aligning with anyone. Although the BSP is strongest in Uttar Pradesh, its influence has waned in recent years. It enjoys pockets of diminishing appeal in some states including Rajasthan, Punjab and Chhattisgarh.
Most political observers, however, believe that Mayawati has a secret understanding with the BJP and this is the reason most of her attacks are focussed on the Congress. The BSP has been kept away from the recent meets of opposition leaders.
BRS: Winds of change
Once stridently anti-BJP and anti-Modi, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhara Rao, or KCR, has reportedly gone soft in recent times vis-Ã -vis the BJP. The development has happened after his daughter Kavitha was linked to the Delhi liquor scandal and the Enforcement Directorate began to close its nets around her. The emphatic Congress victory in Karnataka in May has also spelt trouble for KCR in Telangana, where the Congress is not only showing signs of revival but has firmly closed the doors of the national opposition alliance to BRS.
North-East parties: UCC, a sore point
Most political parties in India’s northeast are aligned with the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) led by Assam’s BJP Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, if not directly with the BJP. The exceptions are the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in Assam led by Badruddin Ajmal, which draws strength from Muslim areas. Critics say it has a covert tie-up with the BJP and its politics help to polarize voters – precisely what the BJP desires.
But Raizor Dal of Atul Gogoi and Asom Jatiya Parishad in Assam are independent and have shown a tendency in recent times to go with the Congress. The Tripura Motha in Tripura is also neither with the Congress or the BJP.
Many parties in the North-East are strongly against a Uniform Civil Code (UCC), but are unlikely to snap ties with the BJP over the proposed legislation.
