4 tasks that could challenge Nitish Kumar at June 23 Patna Opposition meet

With only a few days left for the crucial meeting of Opposition leaders in Patna, which could define the general elections in May 2024, the job of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar seems cut out.

At the June 23 meeting, apart from bringing all the Opposition leaders together under one roof to project a united face against the Narendra Modi-led Union government, the biggest task for Nitish is likely to be an effort to end the internal contradictions among some of the regional and national parties.

Task 1: Project a united Opposition

“This is just the first meeting, and there will be several other meetings before the general elections. We do not anticipate that there will be any discussion on seat sharing or internal contradictions in the first meeting. This meeting on June 23 is only limited to bringing everyone together so that we can project a united Opposition before the people,” said Naval Kishore, national spokesperson of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

Kishore emphasised that while it was clear that internal contradictions existed among Opposition parties, this was not the first time when political rivals were coming together to defeat one common political rival.

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“Political rivals came together in India in 1977 against Indira Gandhi, then in 1989 against Rajiv Gandhi, in 1996 against Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and then again in 2004 to defeat the BJP under Vajpayee. So, it is not new that political rivals are coming together. In 1989, the Left and Right got together to defeat the Congress; there can be no bigger contradiction than this,” Kishore added.

Task 2: End regional rivalries

Even as Nitish Kumar has managed to convince several Opposition parties to come together against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the work to end regional rivalries between leaders is going to be a tough task.

The immediate contradiction between political leaders is now being witnessed in the panchayat elections of West Bengal, where the Trinamool Congress (TMC) under West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is contesting against the Congress and the arch-rival Left parties. It is interesting that the leadership of Congress, TMC, and the Left will be present in Patna on June 23 to project a united alliance against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

“We have conveyed to Nitish Kumar that if Left parties are going to be a part of this alliance, it will be difficult for TMC to become part of it. We also told the Congress leadership that the TMC will find it difficult to have an alliance with Left parties, so we are clear on the issue,” said Kirti Jha Azad, cricketer-turned-politician who is now a national spokesperson of the TMC.

This contradiction that has come to light in the panchayat elections of West Bengal is also prevalent in Jammu and Kashmir, where the Congress is standing opposite the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP). Senior leaders of the NC confirmed that while they stand united against the BJP to protect the Constitution of India, it will be difficult for them to forget regional rivalries.

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“It is a matter of sacrifice. All political parties will have to sacrifice for the alliance to function, and the bigger political parties will have to sacrifice more,” said Tanvir Sadiq, the national spokesperson of the JKNC and advisor to Omar Abdullah, the former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir. “The meeting on June 23 is not to discuss seat sharing or regional contradictions, it is only to project a united face against the BJP. We are not going to discuss seat sharing. There is no such plan,” he added, echoing Kishore.

Task 3: Sort out seat-sharing math

While regional parties are asserting themselves, the Congress, too, has much to worry about. Even though it is in alliance with Left parties in West Bengal, the two are at loggerheads in Kerala.

There are further contradictions, as Opposition parties like TMC would want Congress to share its political space with them in Assam, Tripura, and Meghalaya, where TMC is trying to make inroads. The TMC under Mamata Banerjee also wants to play a role in Jharkhand politics, and the Congress is already in alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in the state.

While Opposition parties are playing hardball with each other and especially with the Congress before the crucial meeting in Patna, there are more than 250 seats that can prove contentious for the Opposition parties.

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The biggest challenge is expected from West Bengal, Assam, Jharkhand, Kerala, Tripura, and Uttar Pradesh, where several Opposition parties have high stakes. The importance of these states can be understood from the fact that together they have 172 Lok Sabha seats.

Task 4: Congress must adjust

The Congress will also have to think of its response to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is in power in Punjab and Delhi and is looking for political space in Haryana, Rajasthan, and Gujarat, where the Congress and the BJP are the two main political groups.

“We have been saying it in most of our resolutions that all Opposition parties should come together to defeat the BJP. So, this meeting is extremely important. But we should also understand that India has 543 Lok Sabha seats; so, there cannot be an alliance or understanding on all these seats. We can agree on seats where it is possible. We should try for as many seats as possible, but it would not be possible everywhere,” said a senior leader from the Left.

The states where there is a natural cooperation among Opposition parties are Bihar, which has 40 Lok Sabha seats, and Maharashtra, which has 48 constituencies. The Opposition not only has a formidable alliance against the BJP in these two states but has also managed to maintain cordial working relationships between different political parties.

Political analysts feel the common factor is that the Congress has political space in most of these states and it needs to reach an understanding with regional parties if the Opposition parties want to succeed.

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“It is the Congress that needs to play the role of a coalition partner. Regional parties do not have a problem with each other, but the main tussle will happen with the Congress. The Congress leadership has to understand that it has to give in to the demands of regional parties. Congress has to understand that it is no longer a major force in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Jharkhand. So, it should adjust with regional parties,” said Ashutosh Kumar, professor at the department of political science at Panjab University.