Has SIR controversy hijacked West Bengal’s pre-election buzz? | AI With Sanket

The electric atmosphere, generally identified with West Bengal ahead of its Assembly elections, is largely missing this time, thanks to a controversy-ridden Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls which has hijacked the state's political ecosystem, feels Amitabh Tiwari, founder of Vote Vibe, an independent public opinion platform that tracks voter mood, governance and polling trends.

Also read: In Bengal, can Rahul, Priyanka go beyond 'measured aggression’ against Mamata?

According to him, party workers, leaders, and voters in Bengal have remained busy to ensure that their names are on the voter list, which has put the key pre-election exercise of campaigning to the back row.

Against this backdrop, a recent survey conducted by Vote Vibe attempts to capture the political mood ahead of the 2026 battle. In this episode of AI with Sanket, this writer spoke with Tiwari about his survey findings, voter sentiment, and the narratives shaping the electoral landscape.

Here are some excerpts from the conversation:

The campaign buzz seen in earlier West Bengal elections seems to be missing this time. Do you agree?

Yes, largely it is missing because of the SIR exercise. The entire voting population has been busy getting their names verified or uploaded on the Election Commission website in the rolls that were published on February 28.

Party workers and booth-level leaders have also been occupied in ensuring that their supporters’ names remain on the list. If someone’s name is missing or flagged with discrepancies, they help them appear in hearings or verification processes.

So, the entire ecosystem — party cadres, leaders of both the ruling party and the opposition — has been engaged in this exercise.

This is the only state where the SIR has not been completed. In other states — whether ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party or opposition parties — the process has been done. Because of several bottlenecks, the EC has not been able to complete it here.

Also read: SIR controversy dominates Bengal's election mood

That is why the real campaign "mahol" (environment) we saw during previous elections — with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaigns and equally strong counter-campaigns by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee — is still not visible on the ground.

Your survey shows 44 per cent positive ratings for the state government’s performance. What does this indicate?

Essentially, almost 44 per cent of positive ratings are there for the government’s work. Around 31 per cent of people are not satisfied. So, there is roughly a 13 per cent lead in positive sentiment.

Then there is the neutral voter segment of around 15 per cent. Whichever way this neutral group tilts, it will give an edge either to the incumbent or to the opposition.

This reflects an interesting pattern. Southern states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka often alternate governments every five years. But eastern states such as Bihar, Bengal, Odisha — and even Jharkhand now tend to show pro-incumbency sentiment.

In Bengal, the Left ruled for 34 years before Mamata Banerjee came to power. Similarly, Bihar saw a long transition from Lalu Prasad Yadav to Nitish Kumar.

This may also be linked to economic factors. The per capita income in eastern states is lower, and dependency on government welfare is higher. When people rely more on welfare schemes, they may prefer continuity because they fear losing benefits if a new government comes in.

Your survey shows Mamata far ahead in the preferred chief minister question. What explains this gap?

Whenever this question is asked, the incumbent chief minister usually gets three to five percentage points higher because of top-of-the-mind recall.

In advertisements and government campaigns, the chief minister’s face is visible everywhere. This advantage becomes stronger when the opposition has not announced a CM candidate.

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In the BJP’s case, leadership is fragmented. Preferences are divided between Suvendu Adhikari (Leader of the Opposition), Samik Bhattacharya (state BJP chief), and Dilip Ghosh (former state BJP chief).

But this question is not the only voting consideration. People vote on many factors — PM face, CM face, government performance, beneficiary status, narratives, caste, religion, candidate, and party symbol.

In our earlier survey rounds, the CM's face mattered only to around 12-15 per cent of voters.

Despite being in power for 15 years, Mamata still remains the most recognisable leader in Bengal. No other charismatic figure has emerged as a natural claimant to challenge her leadership.

Is it unfair to compare BJP leaders with Mamata when it campaigns primarily in Modi’s name?

In a way, yes. For the BJP in elections, the main face is usually Prime Minister Modi. That has been the pattern in many elections.

But when voters are asked who the chief minister should be, they know Modi cannot become the chief minister of Bengal.

So, they evaluate among the available state leaders — who is best suited to challenge Mamata or take the mantle of chief minister if the BJP wins.

Your survey says unemployment is the biggest issue in Bengal. How important is it electorally?

In almost every survey across India, unemployment emerges as the top issue. That is because we have a very large youth population and limited job opportunities.

But issues are not the only factor that determines voting behaviour.

Also read: Bengal SIR: Mamata seat Bhabanipur loses 47,000 voters; here’s why it is significant

In Bengal, issues influence about 20 per cent of voters. Among that group, 36 per cent say unemployment is the biggest issue. That effectively means roughly seven per cent of voters might vote primarily on unemployment.

Therefore, the impact of issues gets diluted in the overall electoral outcome.

Another important point is that the people identifying unemployment as an issue are not necessarily the unemployed themselves. And even if they are, it does not mean they will vote based on that issue alone.

A voter may be unemployed but still vote because of the prime minister’s face, the chief minister’s face, or because they are beneficiaries of government schemes.

Why do narratives like illegal immigration and insider-versus-outsider dominate campaigns despite low survey responses?

The bottom part of that list represents narratives rather than everyday issues.

The top issues are real concerns such as unemployment, law and order, and corruption. But electoral politics often revolves around narratives.

Unfortunately, in politics, narratives tend to dominate the discourse even if they are not the most pressing everyday concerns.

Many respondents believe there is a tacit understanding between the BJP and the TMC. Why does this perception exist?

This question came directly from discussions on the ground. People have been asking us about it during qualitative interactions and on social media.

Also read: Bengal Guv Ananda Bose's abrupt exit after enrolling as Bengal voter baffles many

One reason is that allegations against Abhishek Banerjee, the ruling Trinamool Congress's (TMC) general secretary, are perceived to be stronger compared to cases involving leaders such as Hemant Soren in Jharkhand or Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi.

Another factor is that the SIR exercise has been completed in most states — even opposition-ruled ones like Kerala and Tamil Nadu — but not in Bengal.

So, some people believe there may be a tacit understanding between the BJP and the TMC to keep the Congress out of the contest.

While 41 per cent of respondents believe this narrative is true, the same percentage is unsure. Only about 18 per cent clearly reject it.

Nearly half the respondents believe the TMC is facilitating illegal immigration. What does that indicate?

When 47 per cent of people agree with that allegation, it shows that the BJP has been somewhat successful in planting this narrative on the ground.

If the TMC’s vote share is about 47-48 per cent, the remaining 52-53 per cent is anti-TMC vote share distributed among the BJP, Congress, Left, and other parties.

Thus, many voters who oppose the TMC may naturally align with this narrative.

We also found variations across social groups. The perception is stronger among Scheduled Castes — including the Matua community — tribals, and OBCs.

Among Muslims and upper-caste Hindus, often called the "bhadralok", this narrative has less traction.

How do voters view the SIR of electoral rolls?

In a highly polarised environment, people tend to align their responses with their political preferences.

The BJP’s vote share in West Bengal is roughly 37 per cent. So around that proportion of respondents are supportive of the SIR exercise.

Also read: Mamata sketches ‘SIR’ and ‘Vanish’ on drawing board, alleges voters being erased

Meanwhile, most TMC supporters whose names appear correctly in the draft rolls see it as a routine exercise.

But about 8-10 per cent of voters whose names have been removed or flagged with discrepancies believe the exercise is meant to manipulate election results.

Your survey suggests the TMC won the perception battle after ED raids on IPAC. Why?

Mamata is a street fighter who has risen through political struggles. Also, she is a very shrewd politician.

If you compare responses to controversies, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi organised a march for voter rights on the SIR issue. Mamata went to the Supreme Court and even appeared on behalf of the respondents.

That difference in approach matters.

In an environment where many people believe central agencies such as the ED, CBI, and Income-Tax Department are used against opposition leaders before elections, Mamata seized the narrative.

She projected the raid as political targeting and linked it with the Bengali identity and regional pride.

That is why many voters believe she has already won the perception battle.

But isn’t it contradictory that voters believe both the ‘BJP-TMC understanding’ theory and the ‘ED targeting’ narrative?

One important principle in survey analysis is that a survey without contradictions is probably designed in a drawing room.

When respondents answer questions, they do not know what the next question will be. So, they answer each question independently.

When we analyse the survey later, we see contradictions because we are looking at the entire dataset at once. But the respondents are not.

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