DMK president and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin greets supporters during the party's 12th State Conference, in Tiruchirappalli district, Monday, March 9, 2026. Photo: PTI
Tamil Nadu elections: Caste still counts, but the old vote-bank playbook could fall apart
Internal splits among Thevars, shifts in the Kongu belt, and the rise of new players like TVK threaten to shatter decades of predictable caste-based electoral equations
For decades, elections in Tamil Nadu have often been analysed through the prism of caste blocs.
Communities such as Gounders in the western Kongu belt, Thevars in the southern districts, Vanniyars in the north and Dalits in reserved constituencies have historically influenced electoral outcomes. Caste-based parties and regional leaders have also attempted to consolidate these vote banks, often forcing major parties to bargain with them to secure these crucial blocs during alliance negotiations.
The 2026 Assembly election, however, could challenge long-held assumptions about caste-based voting patterns. Leadership shifts, the entry of new political players and internal divisions within caste-based parties may make traditional caste “vote-bank algorithms” far less predictable.
The absence of a charismatic statewide leader comparable to Jayalalithaa weakened AIADMK’s hold over traditional voters
Political analyst R Ilangovan suggested that the 'caste algorithm' is crumbling and though it is still relevant, it is no longer the stable foundation to win elections as it were once.
“Tamil Nadu politics still recognises caste clusters, but voters are not moving in rigid blocs anymore. Leadership credibility, welfare delivery and local power networks are increasingly influencing voting behaviour,” Ilangovan said.
Dravidian ideology, caste arithmetic
The Dravidian movement, led by reformers such as Periyar E V Ramasamy, opposed caste hierarchy and championed social justice through reservations in education and employment.
Since the 1960s, parties such as the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its offshoot, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) have dominated Tamil Nadu politics with a welfare-driven agenda rooted in that ideology.
Yet, electoral practice has often reflected caste calculations. In many constituencies, the Dravidian majors strategically field candidates from dominant local communities. Except for reserved constituencies for Scheduled Castes, candidates in general seats frequently belong to influential caste groups.
Nearly 70 per cent of Tamil Nadu’s population falls under the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category. Within this broad category, sub-groups such as Thevars, Vanniyars, Gounders and Nadars play a significant role in shaping regional political dynamics.
The CSDS–Lokniti post-poll survey of the 2021 Assembly election highlighted how caste influenced voting behaviour. The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance drew strong support from Dalits, minorities and upper-caste voters, while dominant backward castes leaned toward the AIADMK-led alliance.
CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey of 2021 Assembly elections showed:
- 55 per cent of Thevar voters supported the AIADMK alliance, while about 19 per cent backed DMK alliance.
- In northern Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK–PMK alliance secured around 54 per cent of Vanniyar votes.
- In western districts, nearly 59 per cent of Gounder voters supported AIADMK alliance.
- However, developments after the 2021 election suggest these alignments may not remain intact.
Fragmented Mukkulathor vote bank
Southern Tamil Nadu has long been considered a stronghold of the Mukkulathor (Thevar) community, spread across districts such as Madurai, Ramanathapuram, Theni and Sivaganga. Historically, this bloc has leaned towards the AIADMK.
Tamil Nadu politics still recognises caste clusters, but voters are not moving in rigid blocs anymore. Leadership credibility, welfare delivery and local power networks are increasingly influencing voting behaviour
But internal divisions within the community’s leadership could weaken that cohesion.
Former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam has shifted his political alignment in recent years, while TTV Dhinakaran, who draws support from sections of the Mukkulathor community, remains within the NDA alliance framework. At the same time, VK Sasikala, a close associate of former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, has announced plans to launch a new political party.
With multiple leaders from the same community operating in different political camps, analysts believe the once cohesive Thevar vote bank could fragment in the southern districts.
Political scientist Ramu Manivannan says such divisions could dilute the traditional influence of caste-based leaders. “The Mukkulathor vote bank was historically shaped by strong personalities. When several leaders from the same community compete across different alliances, the vote splits rather than consolidates. When you consider the alliance stitched by BJP, AIADMK and TTV are together in NDA but OPS had joined DMK. This would split voters in the Mukkulathor community,” he said.
Kongu region and Gounder vote
The Kongu region, including Coimbatore, Erode, Tiruppur and Salem, has traditionally been associated with the Gounder community, which has been a crucial support base for the AIADMK.
Caste mobilisation alone cannot overcome Tamil Nadu’s entrenched Dravidian political culture
After Jayalalithaa’s death, Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), a Gounder leader, consolidated his leadership within the party and was widely seen as the political face of the community. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha election results indicated that this consolidation may have weakened.
Several Gounder-dominated polling booths reportedly recorded increased support for the DMK alliance in the 2024 LS polls.
Analysts pointed to multiple reasons for this shift. First, the absence of a charismatic statewide leader comparable to Jayalalithaa weakened AIADMK’s hold over traditional voters. Second, the DMK government’s welfare programmes and targeted political outreach helped the ruling party gain ground in the Kongu belt.
Another factor is the role of DMK leader Senthil Balaji, who built strong organisational networks in the region after joining the party in 2018.
Researcher Alamu said the shift in voting behaviour reflects a broader political trend. “The assumption that the Kongu belt automatically votes for AIADMK because of caste identity no longer holds. Economic interests, welfare schemes and local leadership networks have begun to reshape voter choices,” she said.
Further complicating the equation is the decision of senior AIADMK leader KA Sengottaiyan to distance himself from the party and align with the new political entrant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) led by actor Vijay. Such developments could divide the Gounder vote among multiple political forces.
PMK’s Vanniyar base
In northern Tamil Nadu, the Vanniyar community, estimated to constitute around 12–15 per cent of the population, has historically rallied around the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK).
The PMK has frequently acted as a kingmaker in Tamil Nadu’s alliance politics, leveraging its Vanniyar vote base to negotiate alliances with either the DMK or AIADMK. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha election dealt a major blow to the party, which failed to win even a single seat, including its stronghold Dharmapuri.
Observers said the defeat revealed structural weaknesses within the party.
First, internal tensions between party founder S Ramadoss and his son Anbumani Ramadoss raised questions about leadership unity. Second, the NDA alliance strategy of emphasising Vanniyar reservation and caste mobilisation did not translate into broader electoral support.
Political scientist R Ilangovan said the party’s strategy may have alienated other communities. “PMK’s politics became too narrowly identified with Vanniyar mobilisation. In parliamentary elections, where broader alliances matter, that limited appeal can become a disadvantage,” he said.
NDA’s caste-polarisation strategy
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies attempted to mobilise support among dominant OBC communities in Tamil Nadu in the 2024 parliamentary election.
Measures such as the 10.5 per cent internal reservation for Vanniyars within the Most Backward Classes quota, and symbolic outreach to Thevar leaders, were widely interpreted as attempts to consolidate caste-based support for the NDA alliance. However, the strategy did not produce significant electoral gains.
The 2026 Assembly election could mark a turning point, where the fragmentation of traditional caste vote banks makes electoral outcomes far harder to predict than in the past
Researcher Alamu noted that the caste mobilisation alone cannot overcome Tamil Nadu’s entrenched Dravidian political culture. “The NDA tried to activate caste identity politics more aggressively in 2024. But Tamil Nadu voters still evaluate alliances through welfare politics, regional identity and leadership credibility,” she said.
Analysts believed the same strategy may face similar challenges in the 2026 Assembly election unless it is combined with stronger regional leadership and organisational networks.
Dalit vote
Dalits account for over 20 per cent of Tamil Nadu’s population, and their voting behaviour often plays a decisive role in reserved constituencies.
While parties such as the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and Puthiya Tamilagam have sought to consolidate sections of Dalit voters, the emergence of TVK could attract younger voters from these communities.
Researcher Alamu said dissatisfaction with existing political alliances could open space for new political formations. “Young Dalit voters are not necessarily loyal to traditional alliances. They are more responsive to issues such as employment, dignity and representation,” she said.
2026 elections - turning point?
For decades, Tamil Nadu elections could often be interpreted through a relatively predictable caste matrix such as Thevars in the south, Gounders in the west, Vanniyars in the north and Dalits in reserved constituencies. But with splinter parties emerging, senior leaders shifting alliances and internal divisions within caste-based outfits, these equations are becoming increasingly fluid.
Political analyst R Ilangovan said the coming election may test whether caste blocs still operate as cohesive voting units. “Caste will remain a factor in Tamil Nadu politics. But the idea that entire communities vote uniformly for a particular party is becoming outdated,” he said.
If these trends continue, the 2026 Assembly election could mark a turning point, where the fragmentation of traditional caste vote banks makes electoral outcomes far harder to predict than in the past.
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