TN elections: Why TVK joining NDA may be suicidal | Talking Sense With Srini

As Tamil Nadu moves closer to the 2026 Assembly elections, political alliances are steadily falling into place. The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has largely stitched together its alliance with the Congress and other partners, while the Opposition bloc led by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is aligning with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Yet one figure continues to loom as the “X factor” in the state’s electoral arithmetic. Actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

Speaking on Talking Sense With Srini, The Federal’s Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan said the BJP is keenly watching TVK’s next move as it looks to bridge the perceived gap between the two major alliances.

Gap between alliances

“Despite AIADMK managing to put together an alliance, the estimate is that the gap between the DMK alliance and the AIADMK alliance could be about five to six per cent or more,” Srinivasan noted. “That’s where Vijay becomes an important factor.”

Also read: ‘We’ll overcome LPG crisis like COVID,’ Modi says in Tamil Nadu

According to Srinivasan, Vijay continues to remain a spoiler in the race. However, he suggested that any disruption caused by TVK might hurt the AIADMK-led alliance more than the DMK bloc. “Whether it will damage DMK more or AIADMK more, the answer is probably AIADMK more. That’s why the NDA certainly wants Vijay on its side,” he said, while adding that there has been no indication yet that TVK will formally join the alliance.

Vijay faces multiple challenges

At the same time, Vijay faces multiple challenges ahead of the polls. Investigations related to the Karur stampede case and repeated summons by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) have created political and logistical hurdles.

“It’s not a good thing that when he should be actively preparing for campaigning, he has to travel to Delhi and appear before the CBI,” Srinivasan said, noting that the timing could complicate his electoral preparations.

Uncertainty over Jana Nayagan movie

Further complications include uncertainty over the release of his politically themed film Jana Nayagan and a divorce case filed by his wife, Sangeetha Sornalingam. Srinivasan said his wife's allegations risk denting the clean image with which Vijay entered politics. “If a negative perception builds up against him, it won’t be very good for him,” he observed.

Also read: TVK chief Vijay begins interviewing candidates for maiden TN Assembly polls

Even so, the bigger political question remains whether Vijay should align with the NDA. Srinivasan argued that Tamil Nadu’s politics, deeply rooted in the ideology of the Dravidian movement, differs sharply from states like Andhra Pradesh, where actor-politicians such as Pawan Kalyan have succeeded through alliances.

“If Vijay suddenly calls BJP an ideological enemy and then joins them overnight, it could be politically suicidal,” Srinivasan said. “Tamil Nadu’s political bedrock is very different, and that cannot be ignored.”