West Bengal elections: Why Owaisi-Humayun alliance could hurt Congress, more than TMC

For the first time in over a decade, West Bengal heads into an Assembly election without a clear pro-or-anti-incumbency wave, making the outcome likely to hinge on narrow constituency-level swings rather than a statewide trend.

Amid this fluid scenario, the newly-formed alliance between Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) has generated speculation that it could further complicate the state’s electoral arithmetic.

Political analysts view the alliance as an attempt to bridge Urdu-speaking and Bengali-speaking Muslim voters, with the AIMIM’s presence in the state largely confined to non-Bengali Muslims while Kabir’s influence has remained limited to pockets of Murshidabad district dominated by Bengali-speaking Muslims.

Mathematically speaking, if this blending helps the alliance expand beyond their limited pockets of influence, it could dent the TMC’s advantage in mixed constituencies where minority voters play a decisive role, particularly in seats where they comprise 15 to 25 per cent of the electorate.

105 seats won with low margins in 2021

In the 2021 Assembly elections, 35 seats were decided by fewer than 5,000 votes, while close to 70 seats were decided by fewer than 15,000 votes,most of these contests occurring in mixed constituencies. This illustrates how even relatively small shifts within such voter segments can influence outcomes.

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The share of minority votes ranges between 9 per cent and 31 per cent in most of these closely-contested seats. Notably, the BJP won 22 of the 35 constituencies decided by margins of fewer than 5,000 votes, including razor-thin victories in seats such as Dinhata and Kulti, despite minorities overwhelmingly backing the TMC in the last assembly elections.

‘Minority support bedrock of TMC’s success’

In contrast, most constituencies that recorded victory margins exceeding 90,000 votes in the last elections had substantial minority populations, ranging from about 22 per cent to nearly 80 per cent, including Sujapur, Bhagabangola, Raghunathganj, and Murarai, all of which were won by the TMC. This suggests that in such seats, a small percentage shift in minority votes is unlikely to significantly alter the outcome.

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“There is no denying the fact that minority support has been the bedrock of the TMC’s electoral success in the state,” said senior journalist Ashok Sengupta, adding that an overwhelming majority of the state’s roughly 27 per cent Muslim voters have backed the party since 2016, when the BJP emerged as its principal challenger, effectively giving it a head start of around 20 to 25 per cent of the votes.

Challenge for BJP

Under this scenario, to cross the 40 per cent vote mark - assuming this is a minimum benchmark to win the still-bipolar upcoming elections - the BJP would need to secure over 54 per cent of the 73 per cent non-Muslim votes, again assuming it gets around 4-5 per cent of minority votes as in 2019.

For context, the BJP surpassed the 40 per cent threshold in West Bengal only in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, its best-ever performance in the state, when it led in approximately 96 assembly segments and won 18 parliamentary seats.

Also Read: Congress ceding ground as BJP and AIMIM squeeze India’s secular space

BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari had, not long ago, claimed that the party does not need Muslim votes, though he later backtracked. Nonetheless, the BJP has made little effort to court minority voters. It has not fielded minority candidates in any of the 275 seats for which it has announced nominations.

Capturing over 50 per cent of non-Muslim votes would require a level of polarisation or anti-incumbency wave that, so far, is not evident on the ground. Thus, to cross the crucial figure of 147 seats in the 294-member Bengal assembly, the BJP would have to rely on a division of the TMC’s Muslim votes.

Now the question is, can the AIMIM-AJUP alliance breach that base?

Muslims’ frustration with TMC govt

Many Muslims in West Bengal have grown visibly frustrated with the TMC government, primarily over unemployment, underrepresentation in public jobs, and the state government’s new OBC policy that reclassified several Muslim sub-communities from the “OBC-A” (more backward) to the “OBC-B” (less backward) category, while removing some from the list altogether.

West Bengal staff census data published by the state government in 2016 showed that Muslims accounted for 6.08 per cent of total state government employees, even though the community makes up around 30 per cent of the state’s population.

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Surveys have also revealed that a relatively small proportion of Muslims are engaged in regular salaried employment, with many concentrated in informal or low-income occupations.

The new alliance is expected to highlight this disparity to capitalise on the prevailing discontent.

“Only 7 per cent of 30 per cent Muslims get government jobs in this state,” Owaisi told the media while announcing his party’s alliance with the AJUP.

Revised OBC list

Another source of discontent is the revised OBC list. Many Muslim groups argue that a significant number of previously-listed Muslim sub-communities have been downgraded from the higher-reservation OBC-A to OBC-B, and 37 Muslim groups were removed from the lists entirely, effectively reducing their entitlement to reservations.

Since OBC-A is allocated a higher reservation of 10 per cent compared with 7 per cent for OBC-B, these changes have direct implications for access to educational and employment opportunities.

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“The new OBC policy is a complete letdown, and the Muslim community will not forgive the TMC for this,” Humayun Kabir told The Federal.

Protests by Muslim youth denouncing the revised OBC list have also been witnessed in several minority-dominated areas across the state.

‘Muslims will vote for TMC to keep BJP at bay’

“Clearly, there is resentment. But to conclude that it will lead to a major shift of minority votes away from the TMC is far-fetched,” said political analyst Debasish Chakraborty.

He argued that in constituencies where the BJP is the main challenger, Muslims would still vote en masse for Mamata Banerjee’s party to keep the saffron party at bay, particularly in the wake of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls, an exercise that has disproportionately affected the community.

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In constituencies where the BJP is not a major factor, some Muslim voters could this time look beyond the TMC. It is therefore no coincidence that the nascent alliance is largely confined to Murshidabad, Malda, and North Dinajpur. The AIMIM, in particular, could make significant organisational inroads in Malda and Dinajpur, which are close to Bihar. Traditionally, these three Muslim-majority districts were Congress strongholds, and the party hopes to capitalise on Muslim dissatisfaction this time in areas where it once had historical influence.

Problem for Congress

The entry of the AIMIM-AJUP alliance, however, has complicated matters more for the Congress than for the TMC, fragmenting anti-incumbency votes in minority-dominated areas.

“This creates a three-cornered dynamic within the minority vote itself. Instead of a consolidation against the TMC, there is a risk of division,” said Chakraborty.

But elections are not just about mathematics. They are also about chemistry, which can easily upend even the most careful number crunching.