Bankipur bypoll: Can PK’s grassroots outreach dent BJP’s urban upper-caste stronghold?

Bihar politics has sparked national excitement again following election-strategist-turned-Jan-Suraj-Party-founder Prashant Kishor’s decision to contest the bypoll for Bankipur assembly constituency. The seat was vacated by BJP national president Nitin Nabin when he moved to Rajya Sabha earlier this year.

The importance of this seat lies in the fact that it is one of the strongest urban bastions of the BJP and Nitin Nabin’s family bastion.

Hence, Prashant Kishor, popularly known as PK, has essentially decided to take on Nitin Nabin head on, if not directly but indirectly, as the electoral battle will be read as one between him and Nitin Nabin, whose powerful face will be right behind the BJP’s candidate in Bankipur.

Nitin Nabin’s family bastion

Bankipur, located in the heart of Patna, is widely seen as a BJP stronghold. The party has won the seat since the mid-1990s without fail. It has been represented four times by Nitin Nabin and as many times by his father, senior BJP leader Nabin Kishor Sinha.

Before 2008, this assembly seat was known as Patna West. “It has been BJP all the way in Bankipur for the past 30 years,” said BJP leader Sushma Sahoo.

Also read: Why did BJP pick 45-year-old Nitin Nabin as BJP working chief?

PK’s presence as a candidate in Bankipur has already turned it into a bypoll that is bound to draw national attention. He is in a new role this time; so far, PK was well known for managing election campaign for other leaders or political parties. Even in last year’s Bihar assembly polls, he campaigned for JSP candidates; now, for the first time, he will seek votes for himself from the electorate.

An element of surprise?

“Our leader Prashant Kishor is no doubt taking on the BJP boss, who never expected such an electoral battle. The BJP candidate will be fully backed and supported by Nitin Nabin to save his legacy; we are ready for it. JSP will fight with the support of people, and PK’s face is our main strength,” said JSP state president Manoj Bharti.

More than PK, the prestige of BJP president Nitin Nabin is at stake, and the party will put everything to retain the seat. Sources in the party said Nitin Nabin will reach Patna, his home town, on Tuesday (July 7) to meet senior leaders and hold a closed-door meeting to finalise the strategy for the bypoll.

On the same day, BJP declared Abhisek Kumar as its candidate, ending days of speculation. Abhisek Kumar is a BJYM youth leader and considered close to Nitin Nabin.

Also read: Nitin Nabin’s elevation as BJP’s national president a calculated move by Modi-Shah

Most BJP leaders and workers sound confident about the party’s prospects. Abhisek is also an upper caste Kayasth like Nitin Nabin himself.

Locals upbeat

Locals are excited about PK’s entry into the fray, though. Lalan Prasad Gupta, a local resident, said, “Yes, BJP was our favourite, and we voted for it in the past several elections. BJP is still number one here but PK’s entry brings a fresh twist and may change the scenario. He will put up a big fight against the BJP unlike others in the past,” he said.

A local youth, Ranjit Kumar, echoed Gupta. Ranjit is unhappy with the BJP and in two minds over whom to support. “The BJP has only played emotional cards. Now we have realised that people should vote for development instead,” he remarked.

“Bankipur symbolises the rise of Nitin Nabin from an MLA to a Bihar minister and now the BJP president. This seat boosted his political career. He may not be in the fray directly this time, but he is personally monitoring things and is expected to campaign against PK,” said BJP leader Nawal Kumar, who has known Nitin Nabin since early-2006 when he contested his first bypoll from Patna West as it fell vacant after his father’s death.

A seat that favours BJP

A political analyst said BJP has a clear edge over PK in Bankipur. Since the RJD has also fielded a candidate, his chances will get slimmer. This bypoll is a litmus test for PK as well.

“It is in no way an easy battle for him because he will have to take on the BJP’s strong organisation network and its social support base in urban residential areas. Unlike BJP, PK will test ground reality of electoral politics himself; it will reveal whether he has created social support base or not,” the analyst said.

Also read: How Nitin Nabin’s elevation lays bare the hollowing of BJP by Modi-Shah

He further pointed out that Nitin Nabin has been winning Bankipur with astounding margins in the last four polls because the social equation is favourable to the BJP.

Despite contesting 238 of the state’s 243 seats, PK’s party ended with a naught in the 2025 state elections, despite the local and national media hype. The party secured only a 3 per cent vote share. However, PK seems to have got over his party’s shocking show and is raring to go again.

Why PK chose Bankipur

PK has already admitted that he has chosen to contest a “tough seat”, as a win in Bankipur would boost the morale of his party.

Hundreds of JSP leaders, workers, and supporters from across Bihar have already arrived in Patna and working on a door-to-door campaign and small neighbourhood meetings to mobilise the urban electorate.

A senior JSP leader, Kishor Kumar Munna, said PK fully understands the BJP’s strategy. Keeping this into consideration, JSP has been worked hard over the past three months in Bankipur to prepare a solid ground network and political base.

“JSP’s leaders and workers have been continuously working in Bankipur to reach out to every section of voters. We are sure people will vote for a change and elect PK as their voice to pave way for a new politics in Bihar,” he said.

Why PK is focusing on slums

According to JSP sources, PK personally prepared the plan for Bankipur much ahead of his decision to contest the bypoll. Taking the BJP’s election management in view, JSP has divided Bankipur into different zones and set up ground-level committees to ensure its presence on the ground.

JSP has created an election network of more than 100 booth-level committees, ward-level committees, and also booth-level “tolis”, that is, a group of youths to help the electorate reach the booth to cast their votes.

Also read: Prashant Kishor to contest Bankipur bypoll, calls it ‘referendum on BJP govt’s popularity'

Before that, JSP workers went door to door in slums to reach out to the urban poor. The team also visited local youths, senior citizens, traders, women, and other common people to conduct a survey to get a feedback and know the pulse of people.

“JSP is focusing on slums because 64 of the 114 slums in Patna are in Bankipur. People in slums have voiced their support for change and a new face in politics. PK fits the criteria,” a JSP leader said.

Votes likely to get divided

However, PK’s bid to unite the Opposition and seek their support remains a dream.

Satya Narayan Madan, a political watcher since the 1980s, said BJP’s advantage lies in the urban electorate, which prefers its Hindutva politics. Besides, caste equation has also been in its favour for the past three decades.

The overwhelming support of the Kayasths, who have a sizeable population in Bankipur, played a major role in Nitin Nabin and his father’s repeated victories in Bankipur. “Other upper castes, the OBC Baniyas, and the EBCs have also solidly backed the BJP in election after election. There is little scope for PK to break this social alliance,” he said.

Madan said as far as youths, Muslims, and Yadavs are concerned, they are likely to get divided due to the RJD’s presence in the fray.

Can PK challenge BJP?

BJP spokesperson Prabhakar Mishra said, “The Opposition is a divided house and fighting among themselves; how they will challenge BJP?” Mishra was referring to the RJD’s decision to field its candidate in Bankipur and uncertainty in Congress camp to extend support to PK or not.

“There is no challenge for BJP in Bankipur; our leader Nitin Nabin won the seat by a margin of 51,000 votes in the 2025 assembly polls,” Mishra added.

Also read: Prashant Kishor moves to ashram, says he'll live there till next Bihar polls

RJD has fielded Rekha Gupta again in Bankipur. In the November assembly polls, she bagged 44,000 votes, while the JSP candidate got only 7,000 votes.

According to sources, PK is likely to file his nomination papers on July 11. The last date is July 13.

The bypoll will be held on July 30, and votes will be counted on August 3.