AIADMK to join forces with BJP again? An expert discusses impact on 2026 polls

After over a year of political estrangement, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) seem to be inching closer together again.

This political shift becane evident after AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) recently met Union home minister Amit Shah in Delhi – signalling a possible revival of their alliance.

The meeting is significant as the two parties had parted ways before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, contesting separately and hurting each other’s chances in at least 13 constituencies. “Had they been together, the result would have been better, if not completely different,” observed senior journalist T Ramakrishnan.

Also read: We did not discuss politics or alliances: EPS after meeting Amit Shah in Delhi

The Annamalai factor

Close on the heels of EPS's visit, BJP Tamil Nadu chief K Annamalai too flew to Delhi, fuelling more speculation.

“One of the key reasons for the earlier split was the Annamalai factor,” Ramakrishnan noted. “He may now be asked to play a more enabling, less aggressive role in the alliance.”

Ramakrishnan pointed out that the BJP leadership appears keen to renew ties, and Annamalai’s position within the party can be adjusted to accommodate this strategy.

Also read: OPS led 'rowdies' to attack party office, doesn't deserve place in AIADMK: Palaniswami

AIADMK’s existential challenge

The AIADMK, reeling from a poor performance in the last elections, finds itself in a precarious situation. “If the party doesn’t regain lost ground in 2026, its very existence could be in question,” said Ramakrishnan. EPS seems to recognise this and is pushing for unity among anti-DMK forces.

Cadres may have to accept this realignment, even if some in both parties remain unhappy. As Ramakrishnan said, “Politics is about interests. Once leadership decides, the rank-and-file must follow.”

BJP’s plateau

Meanwhile, the BJP has found its growth in Tamil Nadu plateauing.

With a vote share of around 11 per cent, it has exhausted the gains the saffron party had gained from its aggressive campaigning between 2021 and 2024. “Now, to grow further, BJP needs a party with a base, like the AIADMK,” Ramakrishnan explained. “They can’t grow by taking on AIADMK but by aligning with it,” he asserted.

Ramakrishnan also noted the reduced focus on Tamil Nadu from the central BJP leadership in recent months. While PM Modi is expected to visit Tamil Nadu in April, the earlier intensity is missing.

Who benefits more?

Ramakrishnan believed the short-term beneficiary of the renewed alliance will be the AIADMK, if it regains power in 2026. For the BJP, the alliance is more about long-term growth and keeping a foothold in the state.

“They always plan with a medium- or long-term view,” he said.

Internal dissent quelled?

The meeting between EPS and Amit Shah may also have had internal implications. Ramakrishnan noted growing discontent within AIADMK ranks and among the leaders like Sengottaiyan and Velumani. “This meeting has, at least for now, unified the party internally,” he said.

EPS's move comes at a time when DMK leader and CM MK Stalin is taking a lead in national conversations, including calling a Chief Ministers' meeting on delimitation. EPS’s meeting with Amit Shah may also be an attempt to remain relevant in the state narrative.

In Tamil Nadu, where political fortunes shift quickly, the coming together of BJP and AIADMK can reshape the 2026 assembly polls. But the success of this alliance will depend on whether both parties can truly work together and silence the discontent within.

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