Fadnavis vs Shinde: Maharashtra coalition faces fresh crisis

The political landscape in Maharashtra has once again been shaken, as Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has ordered an inquiry into alleged irregularities in the procurement of agricultural produce under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) scheme. This move, which specifically scrutinises decisions made during Eknath Shinde’s tenure as the chief minister, has led to growing tensions within the Mahayuti alliance. In this episode of Capital Beat, veteran journalists and political commentators Vivek Deshpande and Sharad Gupta break down the unfolding power struggle and its implications.

Inquiry raises questions on Shinde administration

The Maharashtra government, on February 17, flagged potential irregularities in the appointment of nodal agencies responsible for crop procurement under the MSP scheme. The probe is aimed at identifying agencies that allegedly demanded bribes from farm producers to establish procurement centres. The marketing ministry, under BJP’s Jaykumar Rawal, has now formed a six-member committee to create a new policy on appointing nodal agencies.

Also read: Maharashtra: Rift deepens in Mahayuti as BJP leader holds 'janata darbar' on Shinde’s turf

While the official narrative suggests a drive for transparency, the move is widely seen as an attempt by Fadnavis to tighten control over his alliance partner, Shinde. "This is just a threat put out to Eknath Shinde to fall in line," remarked Deshpande, indicating that the inquiry may not reach a concrete conclusion.

A political déjà vu?

The panelists pointed out that the current rift mirrors the BJP-Shiv Sena fallout of 2019, which led to the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government. At that time, the BJP refused to share the chief minister’s post with Shiv Sena, triggering political instability.

Following the MVA's fall, the BJP orchestrated a split in the Shiv Sena, with Shinde leading a faction that allied with the BJP. However, the alliance has remained uneasy, with Shinde’s dissatisfaction surfacing in various ways, including skipping cabinet meetings and establishing separate bureaucratic teams. "This alliance was never organic; it was a power-sharing arrangement," observed Deshpande.

Shinde’s diminishing influence

With Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction now aligned with the BJP, Shinde’s role in the government has become less critical. "Even if Shinde leaves, the BJP-NCP alliance can still run the government," Deshpande noted, highlighting how the probe could be a means to pressure Shinde into submission or push him out entirely.

The looming question is: Where does Shinde derive his political strength from? Deshpande suggested that factions within the BJP, possibly led by Amit Shah, are backing Shinde to counterbalance Fadnavis. "Fadnavis is seen as a rising star in the RSS and a potential prime ministerial candidate for 2029. This creates internal conflicts within the BJP," he explained.

A larger game at play?

Sharad Gupta brought up another significant development—the growing proximity between Sharad Pawar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. "Recently, Pawar shared stage with Modi, and there was clear camaraderie," he said. Uddhav Thackeray, too, has been sending feelers to the BJP, raising speculation that both former MVA leaders might be positioning themselves for a comeback into the NDA fold.

With these dynamics in play, Shinde’s relevance within the alliance is under threat. Gupta revealed that Shinde was offered a position in the Union Cabinet but has so far resisted the move. "Take it or leave it—this is BJP’s attitude towards Shinde now," he remarked.

Also read: Amid growing discontent, Eknath Shinde skips Maharashtra govt events

BJP’s strategy and future alliances

The BJP’s internal calculations seem to be shifting. The party is now less reliant on its allies, making cold moves toward figures like Shinde and even Chandrababu Naidu. "BJP no longer wants to depend on too many allies, and Nitish Kumar should also take note of this," warned Gupta.

As the investigation into Shinde’s policies continues, the broader implications for Maharashtra politics remain unclear. Is this the beginning of the end for Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction? Will Fadnavis solidify his position within the BJP? And most importantly, will Maharashtra see yet another political realignment?

With tensions high and political equations shifting, the coming months could redefine Maharashtra’s power structure once again.

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