Wayanad: Optics apart, BJP's Surendran contesting against Rahul offers little for party

When the National Democratic Alliance initially decided not to unveil candidates for four out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, speculation about a significant surprise ran high. Some even speculated that a prominent Congress leader might defect and stand for election from Kollam. The eventual surprise did not concern the Congress or any opposition party. It turned out that BJP state president K Surendran, who initially opted not to contest, was set to go up against Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad.

On the first day of his campaign, Surendran revealed his campaign strategy in the high-profile constituency that has traditionally never favoured the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He said: “Both the (other) candidates in Wayanad have tourist visas. I am the one holding the permanent visa.”

Surendra vs ‘outsiders’

Expanding on his statement, he suggested that Rahul and Annie Raja of the Communist Party of India (CPI) are outsiders, while emphasising his status as a local resident. This is only partially true.

Surendran hails from Kozhikode district, and his link to Wayanad stems from his past role as the president of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha’s district unit in Wayanad during the early 90s. Moreover, Annie Raja cannot be dubbed a complete outsider as she is from Iritty in Kannur district, which shares a border with the Wayanad constituency.

Modi’s guarantees

Before arriving in the constituency Surendran had posted on X that he would be fighting to fulfil Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s guarantees for the people of Wayanad.

“I am committed to working tirelessly to deliver Modi’s guarantees to the overlooked people of the region, neglected by Rahul Gandhi and the Pinarayi Vijayan government in Kerala. I am resolute in my dedication to the progress of every citizen here… Humbly seeking everyone’s support ‘blessings on this journey’.”

Surendran candidacy

Many view the decision to field Surendran in Wayanad against Gandhi as a strategic move orchestrated by the Modi-Amit Shah duo. They believe this move will compel Gandhi to invest more time and effort in the constituency.

The analysis lacks statistical support, relying instead on Surendran’s past electoral performance. They point to instances such as his narrow defeat in the 2016 Manjeshwaram Assembly election against the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) by just 89 votes. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he contested from Pathanamthitta, home to the Sabarimala shrine and a stronghold of the UDF, and bagged nearly three lakh votes despite finishing third. In the last Assembly election, Surendran lost from two constituencies, Manjeshwaram and Konni in Pathanamthitta, despite garnering impressive vote shares.

Surendra’s claims

Surendran seems to be concentrating on Gandhi’s absence as an MP in the constituency and the lack of development in the region. For the second consecutive day, he was sticking to this pint all through his campaign trail.

“Amazing vibes in Wayanad as our campaign gathers momentum! The overwhelming enthusiasm from the people reflects their hunger for development. Their unwavering trust in Modi’s guarantee’ shines through their resounding support,” says Surendran.

Rahul sweep

In 2019, Rahul emerged victorious in Wayanad, securing a record 7,06,367 votes (65 per cent) against CPI’s local leader PP Suneer, who received an all-time low of 2,74,597 votes (25 per cent) in Wayanad. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ally BDJS (Bharath Dharma Jana Sena) had nominated Thushar Vellappally, the son of SNDP supremo Vellappally, but failed to make an impact, polling only 78,816 votes.

In the previous elections, Rahul's entry was in the last minute, catching the opposition off guard.

Why Surendran

Neither the LDF nor the BJP could devise any effective strategies to counter his candidacy. However, this time around, with the Left parties making efforts to dissuade him from contesting in Kerala, the CPI made significant efforts to field a national figure in Annie Raja as an alternative candidate.

By fielding Surendran, the BJP is signaling its intent to put up a fight in Wayanad, albeit in its own unique manner. While many observers may not anticipate the BJP finishing better than third place in the constituency, the party’s decision to contest with Surendran underscores its determination to contest the seat and make its presence felt in the electoral arena.

Modi-Shah choice

Now, national leaders such as Modi and Amit Shah are expected to campaign for Surendran, essentially taking on Rahul in his own constituency. In the previous election, the BJP attempted to stir up communal sentiments and polarize votes by equating the IUML’s green flags with the Pakistan national flag. This time, a similar strategy may be employed by the BJP in an effort to sway the Hindu voters in their favour in this predominantly minority constituency.

Altering dynamics

Surendran’s entry into the fray, coupled with the potential for high-profile campaigning by BJP national leaders and increased fund allocation, has indeed altered the dynamics of the contest significantly.

In a realistic assessment, the BJP-led NDA may increase its vote share in Wayanad. However, a significant breakthrough beyond that is not anticipated, apart from enhancing the optics for the BJP. Nevertheless, it is these optics that the ruling coalition is aiming to leverage for its benefit.