Should Rahul contest Wayanad seat? Left vs Congress shadow battle in full swing

Even during the formation of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2004, when the Congress and the Left had an informal electoral understanding, there was never a consideration for the CPI(M) or the CPI to form an alliance with the Congress in Kerala. Despite tie-ups in states like West Bengal and Tripura, where historical rivalries were set aside, Kerala remained distinct with the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front fiercely contesting against each other.

With the LDF unveiling its candidates for all 20 seats in Kerala, the spotlight has once again turned on the possibility of Rahul Gandhi contesting from the state. In 2019, Rahul's candidacy in the Wayanad constituency had a significant impact, akin to a political tsunami, on the LDF, resulting in them losing all but one seat in the state, even in their traditional strongholds. The voting pattern indicated a notable shift of Muslim community voters to the UDF, largely influenced by the perception that Rahul Gandhi could potentially become the Prime Minister, if the Congress were to emerge as the largest party in Parliament. Along with the repercussions of the Sabarimala controversy following the entry of women into the shrine, this factor proved advantageous for the UDF.

Rahul Gandhi vacating Wayanad?

There are speculations about Rahul Gandhi potentially vacating his current seat to contest in Telangana, where the party has achieved notable success in unseating the ruling BRS, as the second seat along with his home turf, Amethi, which he lost last time. “Rahul Gandhi has not yet made a final decision regarding his electoral constituency. Several other states have also expressed their desire to nominate Rahul as their candidate. However, the final decision will be made by the screening committee,” said senior Congress leader and MP Shashi Tharoor.

The state Congress leadership is all for Rahul to contest from Wayanad, hoping for a clean sweep yet again as it happened in 2019.

“The KPCC and the UDF want Rahul Gandhi to contest from Wayanad,” said V D Satheesan, the Leader of Opposition, the Kerala Assembly, when asked about the matter amidst the state-wide campaign, ‘Samaragni’ helmed by the Congress against the ruling LDF government.

Two divergent views

According to Congress sources, there are two divergent opinions regarding Rahul Gandhi's Wayanad candidature. One prominent faction believes that he should focus on Amethi and reclaim the seat from the BJP, especially with the full support of Akhilesh Yadav, which they believe can be a winning combination. Conversely, the other faction views this as a risky decision, particularly given the post-Ayodhya political climate in Uttar Pradesh. There has also been speculation about Rahul Gandhi considering contesting from a seat in Telangana, potentially under Revanth Reddy's influence.

On the other hand, the LDF does not want him to be fielded from the state and the leaders of both the CPI and the CPI(M) had expressed it in no uncertain words.

“In 2019, when Rahul Gandhi contested from Kerala, the BJP capitalised on it by portraying Rahul as avoiding competition in North India and seeking refuge in Kerala. However, when considering the broader context of Indian politics, the primary adversary for every party within the alliance, INDIA, should rightly be the BJP, led by the RSS,” said Binoy Viswom, MP and state secretary of CPI, while announcing his party’s four candidates in New Delhi. The CPI is fielding Annie Raja, their national executive member and general secretary of the National Federation of Indian Women in Wayanad, the sitting seat of Rahul Gandhi. She is the wife of CPI general secretary D. Raja.

The CPI has placed Congress in a dilemma by fielding a candidate of national prominence. Rahul Gandhi now faces the decision of contesting against a leader from within their own alliance in a constituency where the common adversary, the BJP, has minimal presence. Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and other left leaders have consistently raised this issue at every public political gathering over the past few months.

“Nobody thinks this time Rahul Gandhi will be the next Prime minister. We are not dictating them about fielding any candidate, but as common courtesy if they are serious about fighting BJP he should be contesting from the Hindi heartland,” said MV Govindan, state secretary of the CPI(M) while officially announcing the party candidates at Thiruvananthapuram.

“In Kerala the political situation is different as far as the INDIA is concerned. The CPI does not have the authority to demand that Rahul refrain from contesting in Kerala. If they are concerned about splitting of secular votes, that were the case, they should refrain from fielding a candidate against Rahul,’ said Shashi Tharoor.

Gaining early-bird advantage

In the meantime, Annie Raja is gearing up to commence her campaign in the Wayanad constituency. She is scheduled to arrive in Kerala on March 1.

“I am no stranger to Wayanad even though my family belongs to the neighbouring Kannur district. My involvement in political activism began with the All-India Students Federation (AISF) 45 years ago, where I was in charge of the Wayanad district as well. This commitment continued during my leadership of the Mahila Sangham. The only difference is that back then, I was Annie Thomas, whereas now, I am Annie Raja,” said the veteran leader with a smile.

As is customary in Kerala, the LDF has once again gained the early-bird advantage by announcing its candidates well ahead of its opponents. However, this time, the focus of discussion is shifting towards the caste and religion-based social backgrounds of the candidates.

Making it inclusive

Of the 20 candidates, including three women, there are five Christians and four Muslims on the LDF list, in addition to the two seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes. In the remaining nine Hindu candidates, six are from OBC and three from the general category.

“Usually, the LDF and the CPI(M) do not take religious or caste considerations into account when selecting candidates. Our policy is to ensure representation from every section of society. We are conscientious about including women in every decision. If this list genuinely represents Kerala's demographics, it's because our party and the Left front are inherently inclusive,” claimed KV Abdul Khader, CPI(M) leader and former three-time MLA from the temple town of Guruvayoor.

The presence of minority candidates, particularly Muslims, in the LDF list has put the Congress in a challenging position. Their list of potential candidates, which includes all 16 sitting MPs, does not feature a single Muslim candidate.

“The CPI(M) doesn't prioritise the social justice aspect when selecting candidates, as they appear indifferent to the caste system in our country. We, on the other hand, believe in achieving a social balance in our candidate selection process. When our list is revealed, it will feature ample representation from all sections of society,” said Congress leader M. Liju.

Now, the Congress is feeling the pressure to field a Muslim candidate in either Alappuzha or Wayanad, especially if Rahul Gandhi or KC Venugopal decides not to contest. Sources within the party suggest that 15 of the sitting MPs, including KPCC president K. Sudhakaran, have received approval to initiate unofficial campaigning immediately following the conclusion of the statewide protest march, ‘Samaragni’, on February 29.

With the CPI(M) and the LDF targeting minority votes to counter anti-incumbency sentiment, this aspect could be particularly significant for the Congress and the UDF, given that the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is not completely convinced that they will not be allocated another seat this time, adding to the complexity of the situation.