Lok Sabha polls 2024: In Kerala's capital, it's two Anglicised Malayalis vs a Red

The Left Democratic Front (LDF) has taken an early lead in the campaign, with veteran leader and former MP Pannian Raveendran hitting the road after being named the CPI candidate over a week ago. The BJP’s Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar reached the capital city on Tuesday. Sitting MP Shashi Tharoor (Congress) is actively engaged in meeting people in the constituency.

Naturally, a heated battle awaits, with a myriad of issues both supporting and challenging the three fronts.

Outsiders all

Interestingly, none of the three individuals are Thiruvananthapuram natives. Three-time MP Tharoor is from Palakkad district, Raveendran belongs to Kannur while Chandrasekhar hails from Thrissur district. This adds an intriguing dimension to the constituency’s dynamics.

The Congress has yet to launch its campaign but Tharoor has been actively involved in various protests, programmes and meetings with eminent personalities in Thiruvananthapuram.

Targeting government

The Congress and the UDF it leads are actively organising multipronged protests against the Pinarayi Vijayan government, focusing on issues such as the recent deaths of nine individuals in animal attacks, financial difficulties leading to delays in salary disbursal for employees, and the death of veterinary university student Sidharthan.

The Congress and UDF have started a string of protests in front of the state Secretariat in Thiruvananthapuram, including a hunger strike by presidents of the Youth Congress, Mahila Congress, and KSU demanding a CBI probe in Sidharthan’s death.

Tharoor backs protest

Tharoor recently inaugurated another protest by rank holders of the Civil Police Officer recruitment test. “I addressed a large number of hard-working young people who had passed the Kerala PSC Police Constables Exam and made it to the rank list but who were not hired by our feckless state government, which took only 21 percent of the rank holders before unjustifiably suspending recruitment,” he said. “Their eligibility expires on April 13.”

The Congress will announce its candidates this week and the official campaign will start by March 11. KPCC president K Sudhakaran and Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan have flown to Delhi for discussions with the party high command.

Chandrasekhar’s foray

“We are confident about holding onto all our current seats and even capturing Alappuzha. Since we haven’t finalised the candidates, I can’t speak authoritatively on Thiruvananthapuram now. But don’t you think the strong anti-incumbency against the Pinarayi government will translate into votes?” asked Palode Ravi, the president of the Congress Thiruvananthapuram unit.

Meanwhile, when he flew in, Rajeev Chandrasekhar received a warm welcome from BJP workers at the airport. The next day, March 6, he commenced his campaign with visits to temples and attending an official event conducted by the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship.

He opted to wear a ‘mundu’ and a half kurta and spoke in Malayalam, albeit with a slight Anglicized accent, reminiscent of Tharoor’s style. The minister, a fresh face in Kerala politics, distributed certificates to students who finished a German certificate course.

BJP’s promise

‘‘As a Malayali, it is disheartening to see the dearth of opportunities in Kerala, such as the absence of factories, tech hubs and investments. However, we are committed to ensuring opportunities for everyone, enabling the acquisition of new skills and avenues for earning,” he said.

As the BJP candidate, he gives a guarantee — “one also backed by our prime minister. No young Malayali in Thiruvananthapuram will be left without skills in the next five years.”

The BJP sees in Chandrasekhar a worthy opponent to Tharoor, and hopes he has even better appeal among the young technocrats who make a sizable chunk of the urban voters.

Muslim voting

“Obviously, we will have to work a bit overtime to launch him among the lower strata, but we are confident in making inroads into Tharoor's urban vote base, who has done nothing in the last 15 years,” says Sandeep Vachaspati, the BJP's state spokesperson.

The BJP is optimistic because it anticipates that Muslims, who typically support Tharoor en bloc, will abandon him this time due to his stance against Hamas in the Gaza conflict. The BJP believes the minority votes will be divided between Raveendran and Tharoor.

While both the NDA and UDF candidates focus on a more modern and urban approach, the LDF has turned to Raveendran, a seasoned Communist with a direct connect to the common people of the capital city.

Raveendran’s base

Despite being from the northern district of Kannur, Raveendran has a longstanding presence in Thiruvananthapuram as the assistant secretary of his party. A man who neither owns a vehicle nor hesitates to use public transport for commuting, Raveendran and the LDF aim to regain the lost votes that kept them in third position in the last two elections. It was Pannian who last won this constituency for the LDF in a 2005 by-election.

Raveendran’s has covered five of the seven assembly segments with house visits and evening road shows, well before the NDA candidate came to the city.

Confident LDF

“We are highly confident this time around. Tharoor was practically absent from the constituency, except for a few colourful events held in the city, and ordinary citizens are aware of this. Last time, it was the political climate in the country that worked in his favour. However, this time the circumstances have changed. We are sensing the pulse of the common people shifting in our favour,” said IP Binu, a CPI(M) leader and a former city corporation councillor.

“And who really knows Chandrasekhar, except for a small section of techies in the Technopark area?” he asked. “Those familiar with him understand his true nature -- a communalist who has betrayed Kerala at every opportunity.”

LDF’s problems

The main issue the LDF will face is the anti-incumbency factor, largely stemming from the state’s financial crisis. The UDF is putting in significant effort to capitalize on this. On the ground, the middle class, particularly employed individuals, especially government employees, are the group to watch out for, as salary disbursement has been severely affected.

“It will definitely impact the election. We haven’t received our February salaries even by March 5,” said a group of Secretariat employees sympathetic to the opposition-led strike.

“It is not accurate to claim that delayed salary disbursal is unprecedented but the current situation is certainly dire,” remarked PK Malini, an employee affiliated with a CPI(M)-backed association.

BJP’s challenges

“We know what’s going on, and the government is figuring out ways to deal with the financial problems. When they are sorted, we will be fine,” said AA Rahim, the CPI(M) Rajya Sabha MP and President of the DYFI. “Things are looking good for us politically. We expect to bounce back strongly from our setback in 2019.”

The BJP’s primary challenge is the introduction of Chandrasekhar as the candidate has not been well-received by a section of its rank and file. Also, the attention diverted to Suresh Gopi and his candidacy in Thrissur indicates a shift in focus for the Hindu nationalist party away from Thiruvananthapuram.

Cross-voting?

Many political observers tend to attribute Tharoor’s significant victories in the last two elections to cross-voting by Left workers, aimed at keeping the BJP at bay. The Left fielded relatively weaker candidates then. In 2019, the Rahul Gandhi wave was in full swing.

This time, with Raveendran re-entering the scene and Muslim votes potentially swinging away from the Congress, both the Left and the BJP see promising opportunities in Thiruvananthapuram. However, Tharoor’s widespread acceptance, even to the extent of being considered chief minister material for the state, will pose a significant obstacle for them.

Left in capital

In the 72-year history of the constituency, the Left won it only thrice, besides the CPI victory in alliance with the Congress in 1977. Since 2009, Tharoor has represented the constituency, with BJP finishing second in 2014 and 2019.

Interestingly, six of the seven assembly segments have LDF MLAs, and the majority of the local self-governments, including the city corporation, are ruled by the LDF. No wonder, the battle in Thiruvananthapuram is wide open.