Why fifth candidate's entry has spiced up Karnataka Rajya Sabha polls

The Rajya Sabha elections for four seats in Karnataka, scheduled for Tuesday (February 27), have taken an unexpected turn, evolving from a technical event to a political drama with the entry of a fifth candidate fielded by the BJP-JDS alliance.

The entry of the fifth candidate, businessman D Kupendra Reddy, has added a layer of complexity to the electoral dynamics.

Cross-voting threat

However, the death of a Congress MLA Raja Venkatappa Nayak on Sunday has raised concerns for the party, as it now requires 45 votes for each of its three candidates -- Ajay Maken, Syed Naseer Hussain and GC Chandrasekhar. With the number of its MLAs going down from 135 to 134 due to Nayak's sudden demise, there are apprehensions in the Congress camp, as it will fall short of one vote to ensure that all of its three candidates get elected.

The potential threat of cross-voting due to the financial influence of Reddy has prompted Congress to consider securing 46 first-preference votes for each of its three candidates. To achieve this, the party requires four additional votes, considering technicalities that might invalidate some votes. Addressing this concern, a minister in the Siddaramaiah cabinet told The Federal that it’s a straightforward task for Congress to secure more than four votes, ensuring an easy victory for its three candidates.

Eyeing Independents

Among the four independent MLAs, there is a notable inclination towards supporting Congress in the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections in Karnataka. Darshan Puttannaiah, recognising his strong rapport with Chief Minister Siddaramaiah due to his father's friendship, has openly aligned himself with Congress as a co-member.

Latha Mallikarjun, another independent MLA, is the daughter of former Deputy CM and Congress leader MP Prakash and shares a good rapport with Siddaramaiah. She has known him since her childhood days as Siddaramaiah and her father have been close friends since their socialist movements. She is likely to support the Congress, a minister of Siddaramaiah cabinet told The Federal.

KH Puttaswamy Gowda, the third independent MLA, is reportedly in favour of supporting Congress. Interestingly, his younger brother, Venkatramane Gowda, known as Star Chandru, is a prominent contender for the Mandya Lok Sabha constituency from Congress. The involvement of N Cheluvaraya Swamy, the in-charge minister of Mandya, further strengthens the ties of both brothers with Congress, aiming to contribute to the party’s success in the Rajya Sabha elections.

The fourth independent MLA, former BJP leader and mining baron Gali Janardhana Reddy, known for his admiration of Narendra Modi, enjoys close ties with the Congress government. Despite his political history, Reddy, now a KRPP leader, has secured substantial funds and projects for his constituency Gangavathi from the Congress government, amounting to Rs 700 crore. Interestingly, Janardhana Reddy called on Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM DK Shivakumar on Monday, fuelling further speculations. It's believed Gali Janardhana Reddy is all set to vote for the Congrress.

Confident Congress

Simultaneously, the disgruntled leaders, who had switched to the BJP in 2019 to establish BS Yeddiyurappa’s BJP government, are now in contact with the Congress. Notable figures among them such as MLAs ST Somashekhar and Shivaram Hebbar have openly engaged with the Congress leaders. ST Somashekhar, for instance, has expressed overt support for Congress in the recent MLC bypoll.

According to a minister in the core group overseeing strategy for the Rajya Sabha elections, the Congress is confident of securing victories for all three of its candidates. The minister emphasised that the JDS-BJP alliance’s introduction of the fifth candidate, Kupendra Reddy, with the belief that financial influence could undermine Congress's third candidate, will not be as easy as anticipated. The minister pointed out the complexities involved, suggesting that the money power might not guarantee a cakewalk for the JDS-BJP candidate.

Reddy’s chances bleak

The chances of BJP-JDS candidate Reddy have taken a hit following a complaint filed by Congress MLA Ravikumar Ganiga, accusing him of bribery and criminal intimidation. He alleged that Reddy approached several independent MLAs, including Ganiga, urging them to cross-vote. An FIR has been registered based on the complaint, naming Reddy and three of his associates. The complaint also claims that a local hotel owner offered cash payments to independent MLA Lata Mallikarjun and others on behalf of Reddy for their votes in the Rajya Sabha polls.

Kupendra Reddy, a real estate businessman with assets worth Rs 1,200 crore, has been advised by his legal team to refrain from attempting cross-voting to avoid potential legal consequences.

Political analyst C Rudrappa told The Federal that the chances of Reddy have diminished due to the low possibility of cross-voting from Congress. The analyst believes that party loyalty will prevail with Congress in power and MLAs wary of potential repercussions. Additionally, the rigorous election process, where each MLA has to show the ballot paper while casting one’s vote, makes clandestine cross-voting unlikely.

Rudrappa further explained that Reddy's success depends on the support of the four independent MLAs. If Congress and BJP cast at least 46 votes each for their candidates, as planned, Reddy would only have 39 votes (20 BJP and 19 JDS). To secure victory, he would need six more votes, potentially through cross-voting, a scenario deemed challenging by the analyst. Moreover, there is a possibility of cross-voting from BJP and JDS towards Congress, further weakening his prospects.

Anti-defection law

Rajeev Gowda, a former officer with the Election Commission, highlighted the potential consequences for MLAs who vote against their party's directive in the Rajya Sabha elections. According to him, such actions could trigger anti-defection laws, leading to the loss of the MLA's position. However, these repercussions would only occur if the concerned party decides to take action against the defectors.

The likelihood of BJP or Congress taking such steps against their MLAs who vote against their party's whip could result in complications. In contrast, the Congress leader noted that JDS might not resort to disqualification measures. This decision is rooted in the party's apprehension about a potential decrease in its MLA count, considering it currently holds 19 seats. Any action might further damage the party, though the Congress leader said the possibility of cross-voting from JDS is high.

Resort politics returns

In light of the possible cross-voting, Congress has adopted a precautionary approach to secure the victory of its three candidates.

The party relocated its MLAs to a resort on Monday afternoon to ensure unity and minimise the chances of defection. On the other hand, the BJP, with 66 votes, is confident in securing its candidate’s triumph and has not considered a similar move. The ‘headache’ of managing the challenges posed by Kupendra Reddy's candidacy has shifted to JDS, with the party not opting for a resort strategy, as all its 19 MLAs are reportedly under the scrutiny of Reddy.

(With inputs by Shashi Sampalli)