Smarting from Channapatna bypoll rout, JD(S) now must battle rebellion, identity crisis

The mandate of the recent bypolls in Karnataka, especially the defeat of Nikhil Kumaraswamy, son of the deputy supremo of Janata Dal (Secular) HD Kumaraswamy and grandson of former prime minister HD Deve Gowda, appears to have “demoralised” leaders and workers of the 25-year-old regional party. It has also triggered a debate whether JD(S) is on its way to losing political and electoral identity on the lines of the Janata Dal (United) and Lok Shakti (headed by Ramakrishna Hegde), which were political parties to reckon with until 2004.

Open rebellion

The latest rebellion by JD(S) core committee president and MLA GT Devegowda against the party leadership, and his subsequent meeting with former Union minister CM Ibrahim and recently-elected Channapatna MLA, CP Yogeshwar, have added fuel to rumours that he is planning to jump ship anytime soon.

In a recent interview to a TV channel, Yogeshwar also claimed that JD(S) legislators are anxious about the future of the party and if he gets a go ahead from the Congress, he can bring them all to the party in merely 15 days.

These events are being cited by political analysts as an indication of JD(S) losing its political base in Karnataka, especially in the old Mysuru region — the Vokkaliga belt and bastion of JD(S) — supporting their argument that the party is “losing its identity and political constituency.”

Also Read: Controversies-hit Congress sweeps Karnataka bypolls; setback for BJP, JDS

Third Front in the offing?

Interestingly, after meeting GT Devegowda, Ibrahim, who was expelled from JD(S) for opposing the alliance with BJP in Karnataka in December 2023, told the media that he was prepared to strengthen the party only if patriarch Deve Gowda severed ties with the BJP. He also hinted at launching a political party, or a ‘Third Front’ in Karnataka, with the support of disgruntled JD(S) legislators, especially in association with senior leader GT Devegowda.

Similar talks had emerged in the political circles of Karnataka when the BJP and the JD(S) were weakened after the Assembly elections of May 2023. It was at this juncture that the JD(S) — which was critical of BJP and its Hindutva agenda for 24 long years — joined hands with the saffron party in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, claiming it was for its survival. Both BJP and JD(S), who had been foes, were compelled to align ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. JD(S) formally joined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with Kumaraswamy meeting the Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi in September 2023.

Also Read: Congress bags Channapatna, Union Minister Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil loses

Cong's tacit support

Even though Congress leaders have distanced themselves Yogeshwar’s statement about bringing disgruntled JD(S) legislators to the party and refuted rumours of launching ‘Operation Hasta’ (defection), some leaders, including Madhu Bangarappa, state Minister for Primary and Secondary Education, have openly supported his plan.

However, JD(S) legislators on Wednesday (November 27) held a joint press conference in a show of strength and unequivocally declared their faith in the leadership of HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy.

Identity crisis

Shedding light on the ongoing political crisis in JD(S), Ramesh Babu, a former JD(S) MLC and current Congress spokesperson, told The Federal that, following its dismal performance in Channapatna, the party is grappling with a severe identity crisis. He said that the once-dominant regional party is likely to follow the trajectory of Lok Shakti and JD(U) in Karnataka, which eventually faded into obscurity and lost their recognition from the Election Commission of India in 1999.

Also Read: Karnataka HC denies bail to former JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna in rape case

Rise and fall of Lok Shakti

Former chief minister Ramakrishna Hegde, who claimed to champion the principle of ‘value-based politics’ and probity in public life, and as the nucleus that formed the Janata Dal in 1988, launched his own party — Lok Shakti — in February 1997, after he was expelled from Janata Dal by Lalu Prasad Yadav. Lok Shakti emerged as a major party in Karnataka and was a founding member of NDA. It eventually merged with JD(U).

According to political analyst Sandeep Shastri, “The Lok Shakti was a branch of Janata Parivar, as an estranged sibling seeking justice and a due share of its ‘ancestral political legacy.’ Lok Shakti was a ‘vehicle to carry forward Hegde’s political career and challenge HD Deve Gowda, his traditional rival within the Janata Dal, who had been instrumental in ensuring his expulsion from Janata Dal.”

“The Lok Shakti was a key player in Karnataka politics for a little over two years in the run-up to the 1999 Lok Sabha polls. The party was merged with JD(U), with Hegde more or less retiring from active politics after the polls. The Lok Shakti gradually faded away, and the Election Commission too de-recognised the party in September 1999,” he said.

Political death

Chronicling the fall of JD(U) in Karnataka, Dayanand says, “Much against the desire of Hegde, former chief minister and socialist leader JH Patel lent support to NDA, which led to a split in the Janata Dal, leading to the formation of Janata Dal (Secular) under HD Deve Gowda, who wanted to remain equidistant from both national parties. Now Deve Gowda striking an alliance with the NDA is a sign of the degeneration of political ideology over the years. Congress secured a huge majority by winning 132 seats in the Assembly elections in 1999, which were held along with Lok Sabha polls. The NDA-composed BJP and JD(U) was a distant second, winning 63 seats. JD(U)’s tally was 18, while the JD(S) faction of Deve Gowda bit the dust by winning only 10 seats.”

Also Read: BJP-JD(S) alliance in trouble; Kumaraswamy plays hardball over Channapatna seat

Will JD(S) meet JD(U)’s fate?

Dayanand attributes the support of the Lingayat community to JD(U) for its political success. “Before accepting BS Yediyurappa as the tall leader representing the Lingayat community, the dominant community aligned with Hegde and JH Patel (a Lingayat). JD(U), a truly socialist, secular, democratic party, slowly ‘degenerated’ because of aligning with BJP-led NDA,” regrets Dayanand, who is said to have fought with Patel over aligning with NDA at that political juncture.

Dayanand believes that JD(S), which maintained equidistance from both Congress and BJP when founded, will face a similar fate for having aligned with NDA and presently working with BJP.

‘JD(S) resilient’

Nevertheless, many who joined the Congress to save their political careers do not agree that the JD(S) is moving in the direction of Lok Shakti and JD(U) and will meet the same fate.

Some senior Congress leaders cite the example of Chaudhary Devi Lal, who launched Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and was instrumental in the formation of Haryana as a state separate from Punjab and served as the deputy prime minister of India for two consecutive terms, to dismiss the hypothesis.

“No force on earth can dismiss the political potential of JD(S) till the last breath of HD Deve Gowda — a political ‘Chanakya’ of India. The presence of JD(S) in Indian polity for the past 25 years is testimony to that,” says a senior Congress leader with a socialist bent of mind, who has been closely observing the politics of the country for the past 50 years.