Lok Sabha polls 2024: Portal forecasts 17 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka for Congress

An independent web portal, which accurately predicted the Karnataka Assembly results in 2023, has now forecast that the Congress will win 17 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state—a dramatic increase from the just one seat it won in 2019.

Eedina (eedina.com) has also said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance will win the other 11 constituencies, with seven seats in neck-and-neck fight.

Upset with Modi

The BJP swept the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka, leaving just one seat for the Congress and two to others. The Karnataka tally had contributed greatly to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s overall seat strength nationally.

According to the Eedina portal, most voters expressed unhappiness over rising prices and depleting job opportunities since Modi became the prime minster in 2014.

2023 forecast

The portal conducted a random door-to-door survey of 52,678 people in Karnataka between February 15 and March 5, before political parties began announcing their candidates.

Last year, it had predicted, just three weeks before the results, a massive win for the Congress in elections to the Karnataka legislature.

Various issues

Responding to issues now, 77 percent of the respondents complained about rising prices of essential commodities, and 53 percent felt that employment opportunities had shrunk in the last decade under Modi.

Speaking to The Federal, Dr Vasu HV, coordinator of the Eedina survey, said: “The survey’s focus was on ground reality with systematic random sampling method with door-to-door, face-to-face visits.”

He said the finding would be published at the earliest.

Vote share

According to the survey, the Congress will retain its 2023 vote share and slightly increase its voter share from the 2019 Lok Sabha outcome. The survey found that the BJP, which had enjoyed a gradual rise in vote share since 1996, will now see a decline.

The Congress is expected to secure 43.77 percent of the total votes as against the BJP-JD(S) alliance's share of 42.35 per cent.

Corruption, disparities

The Congress is likely to improve its vote share from 31 percent in the 2019 Lok Sabha battle, while the BJP will see an erosion of votes from 51 percent, which it garnered in 2019.

The survey found that 76.55 percent of respondents feel prices of essential commodities have increased, and 53.18 percent noted that employment opportunities for the young have decreased.

Similarly, 46.75 percent said corruption was growing, and 42.02 percent felt the gap between the rich and poor was widening.

Congress in Karnataka

Some 56.14 percent of the respondents were also pleased with the Guarantee Schemes of the ruling Congress in Karnataka.

At least 59.28 percent of women, who are key beneficiaries of most of these schemes, favour the Congress. At least 39.67 per cent of respondents felt the guarantee schemes are useful.

Dr Vasu told The Federal: “One should keep in mind that this survey was conducted before the announcement of candidates. This trend may change depending on who the candidates are and the issues that crop up during campaigning.”