Haryana: With Khattar out, BJP loses its sole ally in North India

With a few days left for the Election Commission to announce the dates for the general elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Haryana suffered a major setback after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Jananyak Janata Party (JJP) decided to part ways.

The JJP, a regional party, was the only significant member of the NDA in north India.

The differences between the two alliance partners peaked on Monday night (March 11) when seat-sharing talks between BJP president JP Nadda, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Dushyant Chautala, JJP chief and former deputy chief minister of Haryana, fell through.

The BJP’s senior leadership invited Dushyant Chautala to Delhi to finalise the seat-sharing arrangement and convey to him that BJP would not be able to concede his party any Lok Sabha seat. The party leadership is of the opinion that since the BJP won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana in the 2019 general elections, it would not be correct to share any of the seats with JJP.

No concession to JJP

While Chautala was keen to contest at least three Lok Sabha constituencies out of 10, the BJP leadership was adamant to not give the JJP any concession since the BJP is confident of repeating its 2019 performance in the upcoming general elections. The BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had managed to secure a 58 percent vote share in the 2019 elections.

Senior leaders of the JJP said that the party would have settled for two Lok Sabha seats if the BJP agreed to let the JJP contest Hisar and Bhiwani–Mahendragarh seats.

Betting on Nayab Singh Saini

As a result, the Cabinet was dissolved after Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar submitted his resignation to the Haryana governor. In a fast-paced development during the day, the BJP leadership immediately sent Union Minister Arjun Munda and National General Secretary Tarun Chugh as observers for the legislative party meeting.

Dharambir Singh, the Bhiwani-Mahendragarh MP, expressed hope that Nayab Singh Saini, as new Chief Minister, will lead the party successfully in the coming elections. “Nayab Singh Saini is the new Chief Minister of Haryana and the new cabinet will be decided by him in consultation of the party leadership. We are confident that we will win all the 10 Lok Sabha seats under his leadership, because he belongs to a family of farmers and has remained in touch with the farmers and village community of Haryana,” Singh said.

JJP cannot ignore support base

Haryana has been a fertile electoral ground for the BJP, but the problem between the two alliance partners started because of the ongoing farmer protests that have continued at the doorstep of Delhi for the past 26 days.

“We are a party of farmers and we have always supported the demand for the minimum support price (MSP). We have always followed the rules of the alliance but we cannot ignore the interests of our support base. We are going back to the farmers and we will present our case before them in Hisar on Wednesday,” Prateek Som, senior leader of JJP and national spokesperson, said.

The real bone of contention

The differences between the two NDA partners first came to light in 2021 when farmers from Haryana, Punjab and western Uttar Pradesh surrounded the national capital against the three farm laws. Coming under pressure from the farmers unions, Chautala threatened to walk out of the alliance and step down as the deputy chief minister.

Senior JJP leaders fear that the present protests may hurt not only its electoral prospects but also those of the BJP in Haryana. “In the last few days, we have met home minister, BJP president, agriculture minister and several other senior ministers of the Union government to ensure that the government agrees to the demands of the farmers. But it did not happen. As a compromise formula, it was agreed that farmers in Haryana would continue to get MSP which is still being implemented. But these repeated protests by farmers are hurting the interest of our party,” added Som.

To make matters worse for the JJP, the protests by women wrestlers against BJP parliamentarian Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, the former president of Wrestling Federation of India (WFI), who was accused of harassment by them, also became a bone of contention between the alliance partners.

Since most of the protesting wrestlers were from Haryana and belonged to the dominant Jat community, the JJP leadership, especially Chautala, faced criticism for not taking a stand in favour of the protesting wrestlers.

Blunting anti-incumbency

The choice of Nayab Saini is interesting because he belongs to the other backward class (OBC) community and is also a close confidant of former Chief Minister Khattar.

Senior BJP leaders believe that while Khattar would be asked to contest the upcoming Lok Sabha election from Karnal, his home constituency, the BJP has managed to limit the impact of anti-incumbency against Khattar and Haryana government by removing him from the top post. Khattar will be the third former chief minister, after Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Biplab Kumar Deb, former chief minister of Tripura, to have been shown the door by the party.

Political observers believe that the BJP is taking a calculated risk by removing Khattar to limit the impact of anti-incumbency against him due to the ongoing protests by farmers. “There can be no emotions in politics and we have just seen that happen in Haryana. Even though Khattar is close to PM Modi, he has been removed to limit the impact of anti-incumbency against him and his government in Haryana. This is the beginning of Khattar’s new innings and most likely he will be asked to contest Lok Sabha elections,” said Ashutosh Kumar, political science professor at Panjab University.