Under glaring camera lights, Ukrainian-comedian-turned President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discovers realpolitik is no joke
The meltdown between United States President Donald Trump, his deputy J D Vance and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is spectacularly unprecedented in the recent history of international politics.
An unpredictable Trump and an acerbic Vance swept aside niceties, in an attempt to bully the Ukrainian president into submission.
Also read: Trump, Zelenskyy verbal bout in White House has world stunned
The showdown didn’t appear scripted and none among the three high-profile, influential leaders expected a routine photo-op to blow up the way it did.
Dramatic shift in US foreign policy
But for the world, which has been watching with great interest the denouement of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the shouting match, devoid of any decorum or dignity, exposed the dramatic shift in US foreign policy since Trump came to power for his second term.
For close followers of international politics, its practitioners in various forms and for diplomats, academics and researchers the drama on Friday (February 28) at the Oval Office in the White House was gold cud that will be chewed on for years, if not decades.
Also read: Trump-Zelenskyy showdown: What happened in that explosive 10 minutes
Much of what was played out in public in Washington, D.C., is usually the stuff of educated inferences or plain speculation based on a particular outcome. This is the first time in recent memory that leaders have openly indulged in a squabble over an issue that has led the world’s narrative since February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
The conclusions are obvious. Zelenskyy gets nothing out of a possible agreement except an end to fighting— with no guarantee for Ukraine’s security. He is under intense pressure to resign and hand over the government to someone with whom Trump and his cohorts can talk. Zelenskyy’s lack of political experience has hurt him when he needed it the most.
The scale of US's betrayal of Ukraine
For the US too, the dent, if not the damage, is deep. All these years, particularly since the end of World War II in 1945, irrespective of change of guard at the White House, its foreign policy was largely stable and predictable.
Also read: Trump-Zelenskyy clash: US drops Ukraine like hot potato
This enabled allies and others to engage in conversations with any US administration fully confident that there would be no dramatic shifts when governments changed hands.
Trump, in one single swipe, has brought this confidence, trust and reliance in the US crashing. Some allegories come to mind: bull in a China shop and stirring the hornet’s nest, to name a couple. But they pale into insignificance compared to what this one-month-old administration has done.
The scale of the US’s betrayal of Ukraine is comparable to the attacks of 9/11 on the World Trade Center – completely unexpected and a shock-and-awe treatment. In short, an epochal moment in world history.
Literally overnight, Ukraine is finding itself fighting Russia almost entirely with finance and armaments from the US arsenal that has suddenly been pulled back. Trump’s officials had indicated that US support would wind down over the next few weeks. But now, after Friday’s unsavoury spectacle, the halt in US aid is expected to be immediate.
War over simple Nato argument
To begin with, the issue on which Ukraine found itself at war with Russia was absurd. It was just over Nato membership for Kyiv. It was not as if the membership was urgent and required pronto to save Ukraine. It started out as a public argument between the US (under the previous Joe Biden administration) backed by its European allies and Russia under Vladimir Putin.
Even as Putin warned that it affected Russia’s security interests, Biden insisted that Nato, the post-war Western military alliance, would absorb Ukraine in its fold. This could have been put off for now and done when circumstances were more favourable, politically speaking. Unfortunately, it turned out to be an ego issue between Biden and Putin with Zelenskyy chiming in by reiterating his desire to join Nato.
Putin’s aggressive response has ended up damaging Ukraine, killing thousands, injuring several thousands more while its key infrastructure is in shambles. Millions have fled the country and internally displaced from their homes. Was all this necessary over a simple argument on the Nato issue? The absurdity is breathtaking, to say the least.
Now, after three years, has Ukraine gained anything? Nothing. On the contrary, it has lost a swathe of territory in the east and south of the country to Russia. Putin has clearly said Russia is not backing off, and Trump supports this position. What options does it leave Ukraine with? Again, nothing. It cannot fight on its own. The only sliver of hope is Europe that has stood steadfast with Zelenskyy.
But Europe does not have the gumption nor the resources to finance and militarily equip Ukraine like the US could. To save face, Europe may step in and increase its involvement. But this will turn out to be more symbolic, given Trump’s reaction which is bound to be hostile.
US-Europe ties will not be the same again
So, when Trump barked at Zelenskyy saying Ukraine had no cards to play with, he meant it. And that was the reality. What we saw at the White House is probably the last scene in the chaotic and as some would say, unfair, end to fighting. Trump has enabled Putin to smile all the way to the agreement that will follow.
As for US-European ties, things will never be the same again. But Europe is still dependent on US largesse. Countries like Germany still house large and strategically important US military bases. Many French feel forever indebted to the Americans for rescuing them from Nazi occupation during World War II – so President Emmanuel Macron can only go that far in opposing the US. As for the British, less said the better.
As of the time of this writing, which is several hours since the White House meltdown, there has been no squeak from the British government, leave alone a calibrated response.
So, Ukraine has, for all practical purposes, been left holding the can. And Zelenskyy, a comedian before he became president, realises to his discomfiture and shock that realpolitik is no joke.
