Praying for rain in your city? Monsoon has stalled and it may move only next week

If you are fervently praying to the rain gods right now for showers to cool down the oppressive heat in your state, you are not alone. Much of central, western, eastern, and northern India is with you, with the exception of the southern and north-western parts.

The southwest monsoon has been stuck for about a week now, with the country recording a 38 per cent rainfall deficit between June 1 and June 17.

The monsoon made a slightly delayed onset over Kerala on June 4, and by June 12, it had spread across southern, eastern, and north-eastern India. However, since then, its progress has slowed dramatically.

The Arabian Sea branch stalled around June 8, while the Bay of Bengal branch remained somewhat active. Satellite imagery from June 17 showed subdued cloud cover over both seas, confirming weak monsoon conditions.

Also read: El Niño to hit 12 states; govt activates district-level kharif contingency plans

The June 17 forecast by IMD said the southwest monsoon is likely to advance into some more parts of Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar, and some parts of Chhattisgarh only around June 23.

Five suppressing weather systems

So, what has stalled the monsoon across the country? Meteorologists have identified a combination of five simultaneous rain-suppressing atmospheric and oceanic factors:

1. Developing El Nino conditions:

This has been written about a lot already. Warm sea surface temperatures—El Nino—are rapidly developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Historically, El Nino sets up global wind disruptions that directly suppress or dry out the Indian monsoon.

2. Intrusion of dry continental air:

A massive tongue of dry air from north-west and central India has pushed deep into the core monsoon zone. This dry air acts as a structural barrier, starving incoming winds of moisture, preventing cloud formation, and leading to nearly cloudless satellite imagery across major agricultural belts. The subtropical westerly jet stream has abnormally remained positioned over north-west India, creating unfavourable atmospheric subsidence that suppresses cloud convection.

However, the dry air barrier is reportedly beginning to weaken and moisture is gradually returning along the western coast, creating more favourable conditions for rain-bearing clouds to develop. The conditions are expected to become more pronounced from June 20.

3. An unusually weak Somali Jet:

The Somali Jet acts as the monsoon’s critical conveyor belt, driving powerful low-level winds from East Africa across the Arabian Sea to transport moisture directly into India. This year, the jet remains exceptionally weak and below capacity, choking off the vital moisture supply needed for interior peninsular and western states.

The Somali Jet is also projected to strengthen around June 20. As winds intensify over the Arabian Sea, more moisture inflow can be expected into Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and other parts of western India.

4. Absence of low-pressure systems:

The monsoon relies heavily on self-generated depressions, cyclonic circulations, or low-pressure areas over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea to pull moisture-laden winds inland. An unusually prolonged absence of these systems has left the monsoon dependent entirely on weak background circulation.

Also read: Monsoon no longer a respite: Study flags rising heat stress in rainy season

5. Weak MJO and neutral IOD:

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that normally enhances convection over the Indian Ocean is currently inactive. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also supports rainfall, but its current neutral conditions are offering no boost. Together, these systems have created atmospheric subsidence, inhibiting convection despite moisture-bearing winds reaching India.

Regional rainfall deficits and agricultural concerns

Between June 1 and June 17, India recorded a 38 per cent rainfall deficit. The country received just 42.1 mm of rain while the normal average is 72.2 mm.

Central India is the worst hit, with a 62 per cent deficit. Maharashtra is under a severe deficit, with Mumbai recording one of its driest Junes in over a decade. The Vidarbha region and Madhya Pradesh are desperately waiting for a revival of monsoon.

In eastern and north-east India, too, rainfall is 44 per cent below normal despite full monsoon coverage. The southern peninsula is also fully covered but still it has recorded 19 per cent below-normal rainfall.

On the contrary, northwest India has slight excess of 3 per cent, but that is due to repeated western disturbances rather than monsoon rains. INSAT-3DS satellite imagery on June 18 shows the densest cloud cover concentrated over the western Himalayas and adjoining regions, thanks to an active western disturbance.

Mark June 20 on your calendar

A weak monsoon can be critical for kharif crop sowing, which depends on timely rainfall. Independent forecasters warn that if conditions persist until late June, deficits could widen to 40–45 per cent, signalling a “super delayed and weak onset” for core monsoon zones.

Also read: Amid El Nino concerns, North Atlantic ‘cold blob’ complicates India’s monsoon outlook

This raises concerns about delayed sowing and mounting pressure on farmers in rain-fed regions. The trajectory of El Nino and other suppressing systems will further determine whether rainfall normalizes or remains subdued.

However, from the projections so far, June 20 may bring a turnaround, with numerical weather models from the IMD suggesting that a favourable offshore trough will finally be activated around June 24–25, bringing proper monsoon surges to Mumbai and the west coast.