Why unrest in Bangladesh matters to India | Talking Sense With Srini
Renewed protests, violence, and geopolitical shifts in Bangladesh underscore a fragile transition with implications for India’s security and regional stability
Bangladesh is facing renewed political instability as fresh street protests and violence strain its already fragile transition. Speaking on Talking Sense with Srini, The Federal’s Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan warned that the current unrest cannot be seen in isolation, but must be read against the larger political churn that began in mid-2024.
“We have to rewind a bit to understand what has happened in Bangladesh,” Srinivasan said, referring to the widespread protests of July–August 2024 that eventually forced Sheikh Hasina to leave the country and seek refuge in India. “Whether those protests were spontaneous or engineered is still unclear, but they fundamentally altered Bangladesh’s political trajectory.”
External influence under scrutiny
According to Srinivasan, the interim arrangement under Muhammad Yunus—tasked with holding elections in February 2026—has struggled to stabilise the situation. “What is worrying is that instead of moving towards elections, we see trials, controversial decisions and now street violence that suggest an attempt to delay the democratic process,” he observed.
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The killing of student leader Osman Hadi has become a catalyst for fresh unrest. Srinivasan noted that while Hadi was a pro-election youth leader, the international response raised questions. “Was the incident serious? Yes. But was it so big that European countries had to issue long statements? That makes one ask how much of this is being shaped by external forces.”
He pointed to a growing suspicion that the unrest is being used to sideline mainstream parties. “There is a theory of a ‘minus-two’ approach—keeping both the Awami League and the BNP out—so that Islamist forces get more time to grow,” Srinivasan said, adding that Jamaat-e-Islami could be a long-term beneficiary of prolonged instability.
India’s security concerns grow
For India, the developments are a matter of deep concern. “Anti-India forces are clearly trying to shape the narrative in Bangladesh,” Srinivasan warned. He highlighted Dhaka’s improving ties with Pakistan and the quiet but steady expansion of Chinese influence. “China doesn’t need to make loud statements. It works from behind—through infrastructure, ports and money.”
Srinivasan stressed that Bangladesh’s stance has direct implications for India’s security, particularly in the Northeast. “If Bangladesh turns antagonistic, India’s strategic options narrow dramatically. The Siliguri Corridor becomes even more vulnerable.”
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While the return of BNP leader Tarique Rahman and his inclusive rhetoric offers some hope, Srinivasan cautioned against optimism. “Everything depends on whether elections are held on time and fairly.”
Communal fault lines raise alarms
On reports of communal violence, including the lynching of a Hindu man, Srinivasan struck a measured note. “This is Bangladesh’s internal matter, but religion entering the conflict makes it dangerous. India must also reflect on whether it still occupies the moral high ground.”
Concluding, he argued for strategic clarity. “India must respect Bangladesh’s internal processes, but it must also make clear that certain red lines—especially relating to national security—cannot be crossed.”
