‘Nostradamus of US polls’ feels Kamala Harris has an edge over Trump

A historian who has accurately predicted the result of nine US elections now favours Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris over her Republican rival Donald Trump in the battle for presidency.

Allan Lichtman, often dubbed the "Nostradamus of US presidential elections", told News Nation that he believes "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose".

He makes his predictions based on his "13 keys to the White House".

Lichtman’s winning methodology

The method consists of 13 true or false questions. If six or more keys go against the incumbent party, the 77-year-old predicts their defeat. If fewer than six go against it, the party would win

The keys assess various factors including economic performance, social stability and incumbent charisma.

Previous predictions

Through careful analysis using data since former US president Abraham Lincoln's era, Lichtman has crafted a predictive model that transcends conventional methods used by traditional election experts.

From Ronald Reagan's re-election triumph amid economic recession to Bill Clinton's victory against George HW Bush, Lichtman has correctly predicted crucial election contests in the US.

The 13 keys to the White House are:

Party Mandate: Post-midterm elections, the incumbent party secures more US House of Representatives seats than in the previous midterms.

Nomination Contest: There's no significant challenge to the incumbent party's nomination.

Incumbency: The sitting president represents the incumbent party.

Third-party Factor: There's no noteworthy third-party or independent campaign.

Short-term Economic Stability: The economy doesn't face recession during the election period.

Long-term Economic Growth: Real per capita economic growth equals or surpasses the average growth of the preceding two terms.

Policy Shift: The incumbent administration enacts major alterations in national policy.

Social Stability: There's no prolonged social unrest throughout the term.

Scandal-Free: The incumbent administration remains free from major scandals.

Foreign/Military Mishaps: No significant failures occur in foreign or military affairs under the incumbent administration.

Foreign/Military Triumphs: The incumbent administration achieves significant successes in foreign or military matters.

Incumbent Charm: The incumbent party's candidate possesses charisma or enjoys national hero status.

Challenger Appeal: The opposing party's candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.

What Democrats have

Democrats, with Harris being the likely nominee after Joe Biden quit the re-election race, currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to his prediction.

These include a primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.

"Right now, Democrats have lost three keys" by switching to Harris, he told News Nation.

Final prediction in August

He said Democrats lost the "party mandate" key due to big losses in the 2022 mid-term elections. And he said Harris has lost the "charisma" and "incumbency" keys.

Under his model, Democrats, however, would have to lose three more keys in order for him to predict a Harris loss. That, he says, is not likely to happen.

He plans to make his official prediction for the 2024 White House race after the Democratic convention in August.

Harris enthuses supporters

Meanwhile, American media reports say that Harris appears to have energized Democrats in the early days of her candidacy, with a surge in warm feelings extending across multiple groups.

These include some key Democratic constituencies that were cold about Biden.

About 8 in 10 Democrats say they would be somewhat or very satisfied if Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, according to the survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which was conducted after Biden withdrew from the race.

Democrats behind Harris

In a separate AP-NORC poll, taken before Biden dropped out but after his debate against former President Donald Trump, only about 4 in 10 Democrats said they were somewhat or very satisfied that he was the Democratic Party's likely nominee for president.

The rapidly changing views among Democrats in such a short time span show how swiftly the party — from rank-and-file voters to elected officials — has teamed up behind Harris as its standard-bearer, motivated by the fresh face at the top of the ticket and newfound confidence in the party's prospects against Trump in November.

Praise for Harris

Gary Hines, a Democrat from Philadelphia, said he wasn't particularly impressed by Harris' first presidential bid but now, she's shown “she's up to the task, can do the work, has proven that she's running a strong campaign so far and maybe on a bigger level, she's somebody that can beat Trump".

Americans are also more likely to say that Harris would make a good president than they were earlier in July, a shift that was primarily driven by Democrats.

Lauren Schulman, a Democrat from Pompano Beach, Florida, called Harris “a bright, shining star”. Schulman described her as “smart and younger, and she even comes off younger than she is. That makes such a huge contrast with Trump”.

Blacks, Hispanic adults

About 7 in 10 Black adults and about half of Hispanic adults would be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee — a marked increase from earlier in July, when about half of Black adults and 15 per cent of Hispanic adults felt satisfied with Biden as the Democrats' expected nominee.

Bryan Seigler, a Democrat from Raleigh, North Carolina, praised Harris' “broad appeal” and pointed to a contrast that Democrats weren't able to make before. “Donald Trump is the old guy now,” he said.

The new poll shows that Harris' overall favorability has risen slightly, from 39 per cent at the beginning of the summer — before the debate — to 46 per cent now.

A historic candidate

Democrats' opinions of Harris have also shifted in a slightly more positive direction. Eight in 10 Democrats have a positive view of Harris, up slightly from around 7 in 10 in early June.

Harris would be a historic candidate — she would be the first woman to win the presidency as well as the first Black woman, the first South Asian American and the first Asian American.

Most Democrats say it would be good for the country to elect a woman or person of colour.

The challenge remains

Even as the new Harris campaign has reasons for optimism, the vice president faces an opponent who is better known by the country and who has a reputation for a loyal base of support.

Most Americans perceive Trump as having the advantage going into the November election. A majority of US adults say that if Trump and Harris are the candidates, Trump is more likely to win.

About 9 in 10 Republicans say Trump is more likely to become president, while only about 7 in 10 Democrats say that about Harris.

(With agency inputs)