The Chinese have not been able to force two other powerful rebel armies, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Arakan Army (AA) to agree to a ceasefire with the Burmese military junta. | File photo

MNDAA agrees to withdraw before June from northern Shan state’s Lashio town, which is crucial to China-Myanmar Economic Corridor connecting Yunnan to Rakhine


China has finally managed to force a powerful ethnic rebel army to agree to a ceasefire with the Myanmar military junta. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) representing the ethnic Kokangs in the Shan state has signed a ceasefire agreement with Burmese military junta State Administrative Council (SAC) on January 18.

Interestingly, the agreement was signed in the Chinese city of Kunming, capital of the southwestern state of Yunnan bordering Myanmar. If that was not enough to point to a heavy Chinese involvement in the peace-making process, Beijing made it abundantly clear when its foreign ministry spokesperson, rather than any from the military junta or the MNDAA, made the official announcement about the ceasefire.

Also read: As junta weakens, Chinese intervention fails to stop rebel offensive in Myanmar

Ceasefire agreement

“The two sides reached and signed a formal ceasefire agreement, and stopped fighting at 12 am on January 18, 2025, Beijing time,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told mediapersons this week.

“We hope that all parties will maintain the momentum of ceasefire and peace talks, earnestly implement existing common understandings, take the initiative in de-escalating the situation on the ground, and further negotiate and settle relevant issues through dialogue,” she said, without revealing the details of the agreement.

Myanmar Now and BBC Burmese service published some details of the ceasefire, provoking an instant controversy.

Citing "Chinese sources", Myanmar Now reported that the MNDAA has agreed to withdraw before June from northern Shan State’s Lashio town, which it seized after overrunning the military’s Northeastern Command in August last year. The MNDAA has run the administration in Lashio since August, much to the chagrin of the Chinese. Lashio is crucial to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor connecting Yunnan to the coastal province of Rakhine.

Chinese pressure

The Federal has reported before that Chinese intelligence even interned in Kunming the top MNDAA commander Peng Daxun to pressurise it to negotiate with the Burmese military junta. Even after it gave in to those pressures and agreed to negotiate, the MNDAA remained stubborn and refused to hand over Lashio back to the military junta, as demanded by the Chinese.

Now, it seems the Chinese have leaked to media that the MNDAA has agreed to withdraw from Lashio -- something that the MNDAA stoutly denies.

Also read: China calling the shots in Myanmar while India in wait-and-watch mode

“Things are calm and normal in Lashio. As far as we are concerned, we are not going to give up Lashio, but it’s true that there’s a ceasefire,” a MNDAA source told some Burmese media outlets.

The BBC Burmese service, citing a source 'close to the Chinese government', reported that China wants both sides to maintain the ceasefire status for now.

Political negotiations

“They could continue political negotiations if the political climate changes after the election. China is pushing for this,” the source said, referring to the junta’s plan to hold an election this year.

The unnamed source said China has suggested both the junta and MNDAA jointly govern the town, which sits on a major highway linking Mandalay to the Chinese border, before reaching a political solution.

The MNDAA ally in the Three Brotherhood Alliance, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), has already agreed to a ceasefire with the Burmese military junta. But like the MNDAA, the TNLA is also reluctant to give up its hard-earned territorial gains.

Also read: With Myanmar railroad corridor at risk, China makes desperate bid to save junta

Rebel resistance

But the Chinese have not been able to force two other powerful rebel armies, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Arakan Army (AA) to agree to a ceasefire with the Burmese military junta, let alone push them to give up any of its territorial gains.

The KIA, for a while, even closed border gates through which Chinese companies import rare earth elements crucial for many of its industries. It led to a sharp drop in the stocks of these companies in Chinese stock exchanges, until the KIA reopened the gates to allow rare earth exports to China from the Pangwa mines which are now fully under its control.

The Arakan Army, a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has also refused to stop its offensive, though it has so far avoided any advance on the China-funded deep-sea port of Kyaukphyu and the Special Economic Zone straddling it. The AA, in a message to neighbours China and India, also promised to "protect all foreign investments beneficial for the local economy of the Rakhine State."

Offensive preps underway

But sources in Rakhine say the AA is preparing for a big offensive against Sittwe, capital of the Rakhine State, which is crucial to the India-funded Kaladan Multimodal Transport project that seeks to create an alternative connect to Northeast India's Mizoram state by sea-river-land through Rakhine and Chin state.

Also read: With poor security and low motivation, Myanmar's census largely farcical

The Chinese intervention in the Myanmar civil war has intensified since the fall of Lashio and other key townships to resistance forces, as Beijing's desperation to preserve the Burmese military junta became evident.

Beijing has traditionally maintained close relations with both the military junta and the many ethnic rebel armies fighting the Burmese army. Now with the army clearly on the backfoot, having lost huge swathes of territory to rebel forces, the Chinese intelligence has stepped out of the shadows and pushed, or tried pushing, warring stakeholders to the table to protect its strategic interests in Myanmar.

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