As junta weakens, Chinese intervention fails to stop rebel offensive in Myanmar

Two brigadier-generals of the Burmese army –Thaung Htun and Kyaw Kyaw Than – were taken prisoners after Ann fell.

This is the second regional military headquarter to change hands. Lashio, where the north-eastern military regional headquarters was based, fell in August to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), allies of the Arakan Army in the Three Brotherhood Alliance.

Resisting Chinese pressure

The Chinese have forced the MNDAA to start negotiations with the junta, but the Kokang rebel group has refused to heed Beijing's persistent pressure to hand back control of Lashio to the junta.

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Arakan Army spokesperson Khaine Thukkha told The Federal that his group was now in full control of 14 of the 18 townships in the coastal Rakhine – Ann, Paletwa (in Chin State), Pauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Kyauktaw, Myebon, Ponnagyun, Rambre, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Thandwe, Taungkot and Maungdaw.

He said the Arakan Army had mounted a major offensive to seize Gwe township and expected a success within days.

Junta rapidly losing control

The junta now fully controls only the port cities of Sittwe and Kyaukphyu as well as the town of Manaung.

It is reliably learnt that the Arakan Army turned down a Chinese request to declare a truce and start negotiations with the military junta. Beijing is deeply worried over the fate of the deep sea port of Kyaukphyu on the Rakhine coast, the starting point of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor that connects to its southwestern province of Yunnan.

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At stake are huge China-funded mega-projects like the Yunnan-Rakhine oil-gas pipeline and the railroad running alongside it.

Rare earth exports hit

Analysts say China is almost desperate to ensure that the Arakan Army initiates a full offensive against Kyaukphyu, much as India does not want a similar attack on Sittwe, where New Delhi financed the upgradation of the port as part of its Kaladan Multimodal Transport project.

Up in the north, the powerful Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has also refused to stop its offensive against the junta as has the Chin National Front. Much of the Kachin and the Chin state are in rebel hands, including the rare earth mining hub of Pangwa.

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The KIA closed down border gates, bringing to a temporary halt the export of rare earth to China. The value of stocks of Chinese rare earth companies tumbled sharply until the KIA allowed the border gates to reopen on condition that China will not press the rebels to negotiate with the junta.

Rebels won’t surrender Lashio

Despite strong Chinese pressure, leaders of a powerful rebel army have refused to return control of the northeastern city of Lashio to the junta.

Beijing's intelligence agencies brought to bear huge pressure on the MNDAA, which represents the ethnic Kokangs in the northern Shan State, to talk to the State Administrative Council (SAC).

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The MNDAA’s top commander, Peng Daxun, was allegedly interned in Kunming, capital of China's Yunnan State, last month, after which the rebel group agreed to negotiate with the junta.

Rebels stand firm

But at the Chinese-brokered negotiations in Kunming last week, the MNDAA rejected the junta's call to relinquish control of the Shan State capital Lashio, the town that hosted the military’s north-eastern command.

Fighters of the MNDAA and its ally TNLA had seized control of Lashio in August, after which they started running their own administration in and around the area.

“The military council demands that we give back Lashio and hand over military officers detained as prisoners of war. The MNDAA has firmly rejected the demands,” an MNDAA source told Shan-based outlet Tachileik News Agency on Thursday.

Also read: Potential Lashio loss poses biggest rout for Myanmar army in escalating civil war

Chinese truce bid fails

After the MNDAA did not agree to comply, Chinese authorities closed border gates adjacent to areas under the control of the MNDAA and the TNLA in Shan state. Both rebel groups then agreed on December 3 to talk to the junta.

But with the MNDAA refusing to surrender Lashio, the desperate Chinese effort to broker a truce in Northern Shan State has failed, at least for now.

The junta has lost control of vast territory to these rebel groups in the last few months. The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), an independent think tank working on the country, has observed that the junta does not have effective control of much of Myanmar any more.

Military loses vast territory

It has lost complete authority over townships covering 86 per cent of the country's territory that are home to 67 per cent of the population.

Also read: As Myanmar army loses control, what options does India have?

The SAC-M's founding member, Chris Sidoti, told the Time magazine: "The end of the war is clear-cut. The only thing that is not clear is the means by which it is achieved and the timing. One way or another, at some point the military will collapse.”

Many may not immediately accept the 'end-is-clear-if-not-near' outcome of the civil war because the junta may well try fighting to a bitter end.

Chinese desperation over projects

But both the ethnic rebel armies and the National Unity Government (NUG) are confident of holding on to their gains, which became clear when they rejected the junta's offer for a nationwide ceasefire in late September 2024.

This was the junta's first peace outreach to the rebel forces, following on a regional ceasefire brokered earlier by China in Northern Myanmar which also fell apart.

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China is desperate to save the junta from collapsing because that would jeopardise its huge investments in dozens of mega-infrastructure and mining projects in the country.

China is junta’s main prop: NUG

It has traditionally maintained contacts with both the ruling junta and the many rebel groups. But the pressure it has brought to bear on the rebels to negotiate with the junta has made Beijing unpopular with the anti-military forces.

The NUG set up by lawmakers and leaders of political parties, which claims to be the “real government” of Myanmar, has identified China as the main prop behind the junta which refused to honour the 2020 election verdict and seized power in a February 2021 coup.

Also read: How China is playing smarter with India’s neighbours

Is junta looking at a collapse?

But while the Burmese military crushed all opposition after seizing power on previous occasions, this time the coup has backfired. It has brought together a functional unity among all anti-junta forces including ethnic rebel groups and the NUG-aligned Peoples Defense Forces largely staffed by ethnic Burmans (Bamars).

On the other hand, the Burmese army has been rendered weak by a sharp drop in morale and desertions as well as outright surrender to resistance forces.