Why Election Commission hasn't announced poll schedule for Maharashtra

Though the Election Commission of India (ECI) came out with the poll schedule for Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana on Friday (August 16), there was no word on elections to Maharashtra assembly whose term is coming to an end on November 26.

Incidentally, the tenure of state assemblies of Haryana and Maharashtra ends on November 3 and 26, respectively, and it was believed that both the states will go to polls simultaneously just like it happened in 2019.

CEC justifies move

Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar justified not announcing the poll schedule for Maharashtra on account of inadequate availability of security forces due to their deployment for the Jammu and Kashmir polls.

The CEC said that J&K “was not a factor” in 2019 when assembly polls were held simultaneously in Maharashtra and Haryana. “Since the EC had to keep the Supreme Court's deadline of September 30 for the J&K election, the poll panel will first conduct polls in J&K, where a huge deployment of forces for the polls and the ongoing Amarnath Yatra is needed." The CEC has hinted that the Maharashtra assembly polls may be held simultaneously with the elections for the Jharkhand assembly later this year.

Speculations are rife that the assembly elections in the state may now be held after Diwali, sometime between November 5 and 15, though a clear picture will only emerge once the EC announces the poll schedule.

The ruling Mahayuti alliance, comprising BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, will be engaged in an intense face-off with the Opposition bloc, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) having Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress and Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) in the upcoming elections.

With two major regional forces – Shiv Sena and NCP – witnessing a split over the last couple of years, the state’s political landscape has changed drastically and consequently both the alliances are treading with caution whether it be the issue of seat-sharing arrangements or projecting their respective chief ministerial faces.

Why the delay?

Political analysts feel that one of the factors behind delaying the assembly polls is the prevailing political scenario in the state and the dynamics within the ruling coalition.

The Mahayuti alliance suffered a massive blow in the recent Lok Sabha polls, securing only 17 out of 48 seats. On the other hand, the MVA emerged as a clear winner in Maharashtra, winning 30 of the state’s 48 seats, while Sangli Lok Sabha constituency went to Independent candidate Vishal Patil, a Congress rebel, who later extended his support to the grand old party.

Having won 105 assembly seats out of 288 in the last assembly elections, the BJP is well aware of the fact that it is facing a daunting task to retain its tally and at the same time to empower its allies to make it close to 200 seats.

Another challenge for the ruling alliance is the mounting tension between the Maratha and OBC communities amid Maratha quota stir in the state. Holding elections under these circumstances could result in further damage to the Mahayuti-led government and therefore they are biding time to plan for the crucial state assembly polls.

Fissures in Mahayuti

The BJP is already having a trouble in dealing with its ambitious alliance partners who are demanding a larger share in number of assembly seats to contest in the elections.

While the BJP itself is eyeing to contest 150 of the total 288 seats, the Shiv Sena faction led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has put forth a demand of contesting 126 seats. Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar also met Union Home Minister Amit Shah last month and sought 80 to 90 seats for his NCP faction.

The party has demanded to retain 54 seats which the undivided NCP won in the 2019 assembly polls. Besides this, Pawar is aiming to contest 20 against the Congress from Western Maharashtra, Marathwada and Northern Maharashtra (Khandesh). He also has his sights on 4-5 assembly seats from Mumbai against the Congress. These seats are dominated by the minority vote bank.

Time to woo voters

Political circles are also abuzz with the talk that the delay was also meant to give more time to the Mahayuti regime’s newly announced welfare schemes to kick in.

Many believe that the state government will fully leverage these welfare schemes to gain public support in the upcoming assembly elections. With schemes like Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, Majha Ladka Dada Yojana, and others, the Shinde government is all set to extend monetary benefits to the people just before the elections, which could turn around things for them, just the way it did for the BJP in the neighbouring Madhya Pradesh.

The Mahayuti government is set to disburse the first installment of Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana on August 17, on the occasion of Raksha Bandhan. A similar installment is expected to coincide with Bhaubeej or Bhai Dooj during Diwali festivities.

The Anandachi Shidha initiative, through which the state government provides food items like sugar, pulses, and oil to eligible ration card holders for making sweets during Diwali, is also expected to be aligned with efforts to earn maximum goodwill of the people.

The Mahayuti alliance government is expected to pull out all stops to gain public support, while the MVA is striving to convince the public not to be swayed by freebies and to vote for the alliance's vision for better governance.

Ladki Bahin scheme

The flagship scheme modelled after the ‘Ladli Behna Yojana’ introduced by the previous BJP government led by Shivraj Singh Chouhan in MP, was included in the supplementary budget presented by Deputy CM and Finance Minister Ajit Pawar. The scheme is being seen as a game-changer and has given hope to Mahayuti to perform well in the state assembly polls, particularly after the Lok Sabha poll debacle.

Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Thursday (August 15) announced that over one crore eligible women in the state will start receiving Rs 1,500 per month under the government’s ‘Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin’ scheme, which is set to launch on August 17, two days ahead of the Raksha Bandhan.

The scheme is expected to cost the state exchequer Rs 46,000 crore annually. Under the scheme, underprivileged (annual family income capped at Rs 2.5 lakh) women aged 21 to 65 years will get monthly financial assistance from the government.