The numbers tell one story, the mood on the ground hints at another.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has retained Jalukbari for a record sixth time, winning comfortably with over 1.27 lakh votes. His nearest rival, Congress candidate Bidisha Neog, trailed far behind at 37,717 votes, while Independent Dipika Das remained a distant third. The margin — around 89,434 votes — is emphatic by any standard.
Despite the impressive margin, the election result sparks debate about minority trust in Himanta Biswa Sarma. Many are now asking: beyond the numbers, why did crucial segments of Muslim voters remain unconvinced?
The much-talked-about one lakh margin never came. “I was expecting Sarma to cross the one lakh margin this time, but that did not happen. The reason is clear to me — Muslim voters did not back him,” said a journalist from North Guwahati.
Minority voting behaviour
In the weeks leading up to polling, there was a strong belief among party workers and analysts alike that newly-added areas after delimitation would push Sarma past that symbolic figure. Several of these areas — Garigaon, Dharapur Majali, Azara Hatkhowapara, Bangra Pachniyapara, Gorchuk, Katahbari and Tetelia — have sizeable Assamese Muslim populations. The expectation in some quarters was simple: development would outweigh hesitation, and these voters would back Sarma in larger numbers.
That did not happen. Instead, the pattern held firm. A significant portion of minority voters continued to side with the Congress. In places like Garigaon, party insiders admit Congress secured a dominant share, reportedly close to three-fourths of the votes.
Inside these neighbourhoods, the reasoning is layered, not simplistic. “We are not against development,” said Atikur Rahman, a shopkeeper in Gorchuk. “Roads, schools, hospitals — everyone wants those. But voting is also about how secure you feel, how you are spoken about, how policies affect your daily life.” Salima Khatoon, a resident of Dharapur Majali, put it more bluntly: “People here felt uneasy. That feeling matters when you press the button.”
This disconnect between expected and actual outcomes brings attention to a fundamental question: what truly shapes minority voting behaviour in Assam—identity, policy experiences, or both?
Votes for Sarma's governance
Across the state, the 2026 election has shown a clear pattern. In constituencies where minority voters are numerically significant, the Congress has drawn strong support. In others, the BJP-led alliance has swept through with consolidated backing from non-minority communities.
Jalukbari sits somewhere in between — a constituency where minorities form a smaller but still visible share, estimated around 15 to 17 per cent. Their votes alone cannot alter the final result, but they can influence margins — and narratives.
Jayanta Kalitaa, a supporter of Sarma, argued that Sarma's governance model has earned widespread approval, cutting across communities. “People have seen decisive leadership,” said Kalita. “From infrastructure to law and order, there is clarity. That is why he keeps winning,” he said.
There is also strong backing for his stance on illegal immigration — an issue that has shaped Assam’s politics for decades. Many Assamese voters view his government’s eviction drives and land-protection measures as necessary. “We feel our land and identity are being protected,” said Mridul Sarma, an elderly voter in Jalukbari. “That is important for us,” he said.
Perception issues
But the same policies have created discomfort among sections of minority voters, particularly Bengali-speaking Muslims and even some indigenous Assamese Muslims. “There is a perception problem,” admitted Wahidur Rahman, a private school teacher. “Even when the government says it is targeting illegal immigration, many ordinary Muslims feel they are being viewed with suspicion. That perception influences political choices.”
The language used in political discourse has also played a role. Frequent references to demographic change and the use of terms like “Miya” in public conversations have been criticised by civil society groups.
Legal and policy decisions have added to the unease. The state government’s move to reform Muslim marriage registration laws — by repealing older provisions and mandating registration under general law — was presented as a step against child marriage. Similarly, the law banning polygamy was framed as a measure for gender justice. However, sections of the Muslim community saw these as interventions into personal law.
“It may be about reform, but it should have been done with more dialogue,” said Jahirul Islam, a community leader in Garigaon. “People felt decisions were imposed, not discussed,” he said.
Political messaging during the campaign further sharpened positions. AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal openly appealed to Muslim voters to reject the BJP. “I told my community clearly — do not support them,” Ajmal said at a rally ahead of the election. “This is about protecting our identity and rights,” he said.
While such appeals did not affect the final outcome in Jalukbari, they reinforced consolidation in pockets where minority voters are concentrated.
Despite all this, Sarma’s hold over Jalukbari remains unshaken. His support base — comprising Assamese Hindus, caste Hindus, Bengali Hindus and sections of other communities — has stayed intact and, in many areas, strengthened. Welfare schemes, grassroots organisations, and booth-level management have also played a crucial role.
A BJP functionary explained it in practical terms: “Every beneficiary, every household is connected. That network matters during elections.”
At the national level, there is no ambiguity about Sarma’s political standing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah had already projected him as the face of leadership in Assam before the polls. His return as Chief Minister is now a formality.
Who remained unconvinced?
Within the BJP, however, the Jalukbari result has prompted quiet introspection. Party sources indicate that minority cell leaders from the constituency may be called in to understand why outreach efforts did not translate into votes. “There is always scope to improve,” said a senior party member. “We need to listen more carefully.” For many observers, the larger concern extends beyond a single constituency.
Poet and former IPS officer Harekrishna Deka sees a deeper shift underway. “What we are witnessing is a transformation in how politics is conducted,” he said. “Identity, state power, welfare and communication strategies are all merging. The electoral results reflect that complexity,” Deka said.
Back in Jalukbari, life has returned to routine. Shops are open, traffic flows as usual, and political discussions have moved from rallies to roadside tea stalls.
But the question lingers quietly — not about about who won, but about who stayed unconvinced, and why.
