After the midterms, will Trump resume Iran war?

The US mid-term elections are being keenly followed across the world, but nowhere more so than in Iran and the wider West Asian region, where fears of another major bout of bombings and a further escalation of the war loom large.

A day before the elections, the US struck two sites in Iran. According to Iranian media, explosions were heard on Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, while blasts were also reported in the port city of Bandar Lengeh. Is this a warning of things to come? Yet peace talks are also continuing. US President Donald Trump himself indicated that a deal could be worked out if Iran is willing to concede on certain sticking points.

Vance's peace letter

A personal letter from US Vice-President JD Vance to Iran’s Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Council, through the Qatari mediators, proposed an immediate resumption of direct peace talks. The “tone” of the letter was appreciated by Iranians, according to Trita Parsi, an Iranian-Swedish international relations writer and scholar. He is vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and is in touch with senior officials in both Iran and the US.

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Vance opposes American intervention in foreign wars, and had earlier raised objections. However, once Trump took the call to go with Israel for a joint strike in February, he went along with the decision. Iran has been hit hard by American sanctions and is unable to sell much of its oil. However, as Parsi points out, even if Trump decides on a nuclear option, Iran is prepared. “Unlike Japan” after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, “Iran will not surrender,” he said.

War fears resurface

Analysts have long warned that a third Iran-US-Israel war remains a distinct possibility. Trump had held back earlier, wary of another spike in oil prices that could hurt Republicans in the mid-term polls. Once the elections are over, that concern will have receded. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a long telephone conversation on Saturday (October 31). While details are unknown, speculation is rife that the two countries are preparing to resume the next, more decisive phase of the war with Tehran.

Israeli media reports say that the call was private and Netanyahu’s close advisers were not on the call. They were briefed after the conversation was over. Netanyahu has made no bones about the fact that Iran remains an unfinished task, and that regime change is the only option to end the Iranian threat once and for all, the Israeli leader said days ahead of national elections in Israel.

Also read: US strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island amid Strait of Hormuz tensions: Report

Netanyahu, now a caretaker prime minister, hopes to boost his chances of forming a government by delivering a deadly blow to Iran. Netanyahu was confident, following the protests earlier this year in Iran that the regime would collapse. But that did not happen.

A decisive victory?

Trump is said to be keen to finish the task with a “quick, decisive win”. Whether this is possible remains a question mark. While diplomatic talks continue, military preparations are reportedly complete. The final decision now rests with Trump.

Democratic Senator Chris Murphy spoke of a classified briefing he had received from the military leadership on plans to restart the Iran war. While not disclosing details, he spoke of “devastating escalation and likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law”. Murphy was speaking at an event at the Middle East Institute, which is shared on X.

Trump's war conditions

Murphy’s comments followed Trump’s statement that the conflict “could be over whenever I wanted it to be over”. The US president said that the war needed to end “properly”, with a guarantee that Iran would never obtain a nuclear weapon.

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Much will depend on what happens in the mid-term election. There is the possibility that a humiliating defeat for the Republicans could make Trump turn his attention to Iran and concentrate on a decisive victory that would reclaim lost ground for his presidency. But with the unpredictable Trump, no one can foresee whether he will go for peace or order an all-out attack on Iran.