Trump and Modi meeting, Indo-US ties
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A meeting scheduled in the White House for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump next month has strengthened the view that India will remain an important strategic partner to Trump. File photo

Indo-US bonhomie aside, why India will be on its toes under Trump

An early meeting with Trump will make it easier for India to host Vladimir Putin later this year and to strike a balance between two important strategic partners


A telephonic conversation on Monday (January 27) between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump appears to have put to rest speculations about India’s declining importance in Trump’s second presidency.

A meeting scheduled in the White House for Modi and Trump next month, early in his new term in office, has further strengthened the view that India will remain an important strategic partner to Trump.

But even as Trump said the US and India enjoy a very good relationship and described his telephone conversation as “productive”, he did not stop from urging Modi to buy more defence equipment from America.

Also read: In what capacity did Jaishankar attend Trump’s oath-taking ceremony?

This was the second telephonic conversation between the two since Trump was re-elected to the White House.

The first call was made soon after Trump’s emphatic election victory in November. The latest came after his inaugural ceremony.

Unlike Chinese President Xi Jinping and some other world leaders, Modi was not invited for Trump’s inaugural ceremony.

Modi’s exclusion

Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar was present at the event as India’s representative and met his counterpart, Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Both reiterated their commitment to strengthen bilateral strategic ties further.

But that reaffirmation did not stop eyebrows from being raised in diplomatic circles about Modi’s exclusion.

The latest phone call and the announcement of the forthcoming bilateral meeting seems to have answered the sceptics.

Also read: PM Modi speaks to US President Trump: Reports

Uncertain bumps

However, the brief conversation between the two revealed some areas that in future can turn contentious.

On the other hand, the advantage of an early meeting will allow India and the US to know and appreciate each other’s concerns and identify areas where they can cooperate for mutual benefit.

An early meeting with Trump will make it easier for India to host Russian President Vladimir Putin later in the year and allow it to strike a balance between two very important strategic partners and maintain its strategic autonomy.

India keen on early meet

The possibility of an early meeting between Modi and Trump was being talked about in the foreign policy establishment in New Delhi.

Now Trump has statedpublicly that Modi will visit the White House for a meeting with him next monthand described his conversation him as “productive”.

The two leaders also spoke about developing fair trade ties, indicating that Trump will want a trade partnership that does not give undue advantage to India.

Trump said: “I had a long talk with him… He is going to be coming to the White House over the next month, probably February. We have a very good relationship with India."

Trump spoke to reporters about his talk with Modi aboard Air Force One while on his way to Joint Base Andrews from Florida.

He said “everything came up” during his conversation with Modi.

Meeting in Paris?

Earlier there was speculation that the two leaders could meet on the sidelines of the Paris Artificial Intelligence Summit scheduled for February 10-11.

Although Modi has agreed to go for the summit, it is not clear whether Trump will also be there.

The Indian prime minister will now travel to both Paris and Washington though an official announcement will be made later.

Expanding ties

A readout of the telephone conversation by the White House said the two leaders discussed expanding and deepening cooperation.

It said they discussed a range of regional issues including security in the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East and Europe.

The White House stressed that the president “emphasised the importance of India increasing its procurement of American-made security equipment and moving toward a fair bilateral trading relationship”.

The readout added: “The leaders discussed plans for Prime Minister Modi to visit the White House, underscoring the strength of the friendship and strategic ties between our nations.”

Both also emphasised their commitment to advance the "US-India strategic partnership and the Indo-Pacific Quad partnership, with India hosting Quad leaders for the first time later this year".

Modi’s tweet

Meanwhile, Modi tweeted that he was delighted to speak with his ‘friend’ Trump and stressed that both countries were committed to a mutually beneficial and trusted partnership.

“We will work together for the welfare of our people and towards global peace, prosperity and security," he added.

The current bonhomie between the two sides comes at a time when Trump has confirmed three Indian-Americans to key positions and nominated half a dozen more to other important posts in his administration.

Trump-Modi relationship

Modi and Trump have enjoyed a cordial and comfortable relationship in the latter’s first term in office. Trump was present at the massive gatherings in Houston’s “Howdy Modi” programme in September 2019 and later visited Ahmedabad in February 2020 for the “Namaste Trump” event.

Under Trump, the moribund Quad was revived and the US Pacific Command was renamed the US Indo-Pacific Command.

He had stated that the US welcomed India's emergence as a leading global power and stronger strategic and defence partner.

Also read: 'Modi will do what’s right': Trump on return of illegal Indian immigrants

Trump and tariff

Trump also extended his support to “India’s leadership role in Indian Ocean security and throughout the broader region”.

However, Trump also dubbed India as the “king of tariffs” and threatened to impose a 100 per cent tariff on the BRICS, a grouping where India is a key member, if it made moves to dethrone the US dollar.

The current bonhomie notwithstanding, Indian policy planners have serious concerns about Trump’s approach to immigration and his penchant for imposing crushing tariffs on countries to safeguard US interests and push his own agenda.

Indo-US trade

The US is India’s largest trade partner and their goods and services trade totalled an estimated US$ 191.8 billion in 2022. India enjoys a trade surplus of US$ 43.66 billion.

Though bilateral cooperation between the two countries have expanded to a vast number of areas, India’s huge arms market is a strong attraction for American defence suppliers.

Between 2019 to 2023, India was the largest global arms importer and accounted for 9.8 per cent of the international arms trade.

Military ties

Though Russia is India’s chief weapons supplier, the US share has grown substantially and it currently enjoys more than 13 per cent of India’s arms imports.

Observers say defence cooperation is the main driver of India-US strategic ties since India is a major arms importer.

In his second term Trump will certainly push for increasing the American footprint more significantly in India’s lucrative defence market in his bid to close the trade gap.

New challenges

His strict visa policy may also create problems for Indian workers and companies operating in the US.

Indian diplomats who have dealt with Trump in the past think there was little reason to believe the situation will be different in the next four years although they want Delhi to keep a close watch on the impact of Trump’s policies on some other countries.

But most agree that under a Trump presidency, India will be forced to be on its toes to deal with the challenges the American President is likely to pose, even as the two sides strengthen their strategic partnership.
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