BMC election: Did Marathi manoos gamble backfire for Thackerays?

In politics, stories of the Phoenix rising from the ashes are not uncommon. Leaders who were otherwise written off have made spectacular comebacks to surprise not just their opponents but even their supporters.

But in the just concluded Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, a part of Maharashtra’s state-wide civic body polls, the Thackeray cousins could not script the story of the Phoenix despite reuniting to rekindle the magic of their charismatic father/uncle, Balasaheb Thackeray.

Mahayuti alliance leads

As the BMC elections continued to hog the limelight among the 29 municipal bodies in the state that went to polls on Thursday (January 15), the Mahayuti alliance led by the BJP and the Shiv Sena took a substantial lead (116 out of 227 wards as of 9.45 pm), crossing the halfway mark and inching closer to victory.

Follow updates on Maharashtra civic poll 2026 results here

The Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), led by former Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), spearheaded by Raj Thackeray, who were in alliance for these elections along with the Nationalist Congress Party-Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP-SP) were trailing far behind.

Has, therefore, the Thackeray factor lost its sheen in Mumbai politics?

'Time to work from home'

Shaina NC, a leader of the Shiv Sena led by Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, took a sarcastic dig at the Thackeray cousins as the results trickled in, saying it's time for the Thackeray cousins to work from home. The former BJP leader said that the people of Mumbai were fed up with their same old political script, which she said needs an urgent overhaul now.

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Maharashtra’s Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was keenly followed by political observers when the state’s civic body polls were announced. The question was whether the allies would contest the urban body elections together in a bid to beat the Mahayuti, avenging the adversity they faced in the 2024 Assembly polls. But it was not to be.

While the Sena (UBT) and NCP (SCP) stayed together, the Congress decided to choose a different path and tied up with some lesser-known local outfits. But the high point remained the coming together of the two estranged cousins to consolidate Marathi votes by reclaiming Marathi pride and also the legacy of Balasaheb.

A Sena bastion

The stakes were also high since the BMC has traditionally been dominated by the undivided Sena, and more particularly the Thackerays. In 2017, the previous time the civic body went to polls, the Sena won 84 seats, against its then alliance partner BJP’s 82.

But much water has flown under the bridge in the past eight years. While the (undivided) Sena and BJP parted ways in 2019, changing the course of Maharashtra’s politics, the Sena and the NCP, two major players in the state, also got split.

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Not to forget Raj Thackeray, who broke away from the original Sena on the question of succession to form his MNS in the mid-2000s, even when Balasaheb was alive.

Thackeray magic is fading

Going by Uddhav’s move to cut ties with the NDA and joining hands with the Congress and NCP (which also imploded later) and losing his chief ministership subsequently, and also the 2024 state polls, and the decision to join Raj for these BMC elections, where also the results did not go to his favour, one thing is clear: the Thackeray magic in Maharashtra and Mumbai politics is on the wane.

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The move seemed desperate for obvious reasons — while the BMC remains the country’s richest civic body and has been controlled by the Thackeray family over many decades, these polls were also about saving Sena (UBT)’s last remaining bastions besides Uddhav's face in a city that once was under his father’s commanding influence.

Raj's venomous speech hurt Uddhav

Did Raj’s vitriolic rhetoric ahead of the elections hurt the alliance the most? In a raw bid to champion Marathi pride to consolidate the votes, the MNS chief took a stern stand against non-Maharashtrians —and not just migrants from UP and Bihar. He made racist 'rasmalai' remarks about K Annamalai, BJP leader from Tamil Nadu who was campaigning in Mumbai. These gestures have proved costly for the Sena (UBT), especially in pockets with non-Marathi people.

Read/Watch | Is Raj Thackeray evoking ‘Marathi manoos’ sentiment with ‘rasmalai’, ‘lungi’ jibes?

According to political analysts, Uddhav's political fortunes started sliding once he started distancing himself from the BJP, considered by many as the Sena’s natural ally, given the two parties’ political orientations.

Uddhav paid the price when the Sena, founded by his father in 1966, imploded. Shinde revolted and took control — of not just the party but even the government — in 2022. The BJP’s blessings made him only stronger, while Uddhav perished further.

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The Shinde episode weakened the grassroots strength of Uddhav’s outfit in Mumbai and its surrounding areas, particularly because of Shinde’s strong influence in the Mumbai-Palghar belt. With Congress choosing to contest separately, Raj was Uddhav’s next best option, hoping that the ‘Thackeray’ appeal would revive the electoral fortunes.

But the way the MNS supremo spewed venom against migrants, particularly those from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, at their joint rally in Mumbai on January 11, few would have predicted a reward for Uddhav in the elections that followed.

MNS going nowhere

Raj’s rhetorical politics has perhaps seen its last days now. The manner in which he targeted the migrants and warned that he would kick those who would try to impose Hindi on the state, besides saying these elections were the final chance to salvage Marathi pride, it did not bring in the desired results.

Since the MNS's inception two decades ago, Raj has not been able to position himself as a viable alternative in state politics. Many see a shadow of Balasaheb’s firebrand politics in him, but perhaps the times have changed for such a variety of politics.

Hindi-speakers form roughly 50 per cent of the Mumbai population, it is estimated. This means an anti-Hindi rhetoric is hardly going to work. The Thackeray cousins’ strategy to invoke Marathi manoos pride only appear to have pushed voters further into the BJP fold.

(This article was originally published in The Federal Desh.)