Trump as US president will deepen climate crisis: Policy experts

Donald Trump's election as the president of the United States is a profound blow to global climate justice, and his disregard for international agreements and refusal to provide climate finance will deepen the crisis, international policy experts said on Wednesday.

Sunita Narain, the director general of Delhi-based think tank Centre for Science and Environment, said Trump winning the White House race is a "big setback" for global climate efforts, especially if he rolls back critical domestic policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

She said the US has historically fallen short in global climate efforts, particularly on financing support for vulnerable countries, decarbonisation and financial commitments to the developing world, and Trump's presidency will make matters even worse.

"While President Joe Biden's administration showed stronger climate action domestically than internationally, our primary concern now is that Trump may roll back these critical domestic efforts, including the Inflation Reduction Act," she said.

"The IRA is crucial because the United States remains the single-largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-largest emitter annually. It is also the world's top producer and exporter of oil and gas, generating around 13 million barrels daily. The IRA (and its role in achieving 50-per cent emissions reduction by 2030, below 2005 levels) served as a significant signal to the world that the US could lead on climate action," Narain said.

In his campaign, Trump emphasised his support for increasing oil and gas production, with "Drill, baby, drill" as a key slogan. He dismissed climate change concerns entirely. Rolling back the IRA and expanding oil production would be extremely harmful for international climate efforts, the climate policy expert said.

India's former environment minister Jairam Ramesh said Trump's comeback has made the future of the 2015 Paris Agreement "extremely shaky" and added that if the US were to withdraw from the treaty again, the consequences would be disastrous.

Trump, who has publicly called climate change a "hoax", withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement when he was the president.

He has said he would pull out of the Paris Agreement again. There are concerns that Trump would also consider withdrawing the US from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Harjeet Singh, climate activist and Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said Trump's victory is a profound blow to global climate justice and an alarming escalation of climate risk for the world's most vulnerable communities.

Trump's push to ramp up fossil-fuel production, disregard for international agreements and refusal to provide climate finance will deepen the crisis, endangering lives and livelihoods -- especially in regions least responsible for, yet most impacted by, climate change, he said.

"With COP29 talks starting in Baku next week and aiming to secure an ambitious new climate finance goal, this news makes the already challenging path to consensus even steeper and more uncertain. The world cannot afford for its largest historical carbon emitter and top fossil-fuel producer to shirk its responsibility. By stepping back from climate commitments, Trump's actions threaten to erode trust in a global system already strained by the indifference and inaction of wealthy nations," Singh said.

However, French economist Laurence Tubiana, a key architect of the Paris Agreement, said the treaty is resilient and stronger than any single country's policies.

Europe now has the responsibility and opportunity to step up and lead. By pushing forward with a fair and balanced transition, in close partnership with others, it can show that ambitious climate action protects people, strengthens economies and builds resilience, Tubiana, who is also the CEO of European Climate Foundation, said.

Sébastien Treyer, the executive director of French think tank Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, said the Paris Agreement is holding in particular because the European Union and China are committed to it, and many American economic players, even among Trump's supporters, are already developing technologies for a decarbonised world.

However, he said commercial competition could further harden the trade conflict between China and the US, and the poorest countries will be even bigger victims than Europe.

Bill Hare, former Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) author and the CEO of Climate Analytics, said the election of a "climate denier" to the US presidency is extremely dangerous for the world.

"President Trump will not be above the laws of physics and nor will the country that he leads. If Trump follows through with his threat to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the biggest loser will be the US. We have been there before -- the US' withdrawal in the first Trump presidency did not cause the agreement to collapse, as some pundits predicted," he said.

Hare said unwinding domestic action under a Trump administration will damage efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The prospects of keeping the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal open will ultimately hinge on the level of action taken by all other countries in the next few years and also on what the US does following the Trump presidency's conclusion. PTI