2024 LS polls: Why SC’s stay on Rahul’s conviction is a boost for INDIA alliance

The Supreme Court on Friday (August 4) paved the way for former Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s reinstatement as the Lok Sabha member from Wayanad by awarding a stay on his conviction and two-year sentence in the ‘Modi surname’ criminal defamation case. How Rahul charts his immediate political course and navigates the challenges ahead will now take centre stage.

The apex court’s order comes over four months after Rahul’s conviction by a Surat court led to his prompt disqualification from the Lok Sabha and subsequent eviction from the 12, Tughlaq Lane residence he had occupied in Delhi since 2004 in his capacity as a Member of Parliament. The Surat court’s judgment was subsequently upheld by the Court of Sessions and the Gujarat High Court. The adverse orders not only stalled Rahul’s return to the Lok Sabha but also cast a shadow on the possibility of him contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

With his conviction now in abeyance, the foundation for Rahul’s disqualification from the Lok Sabha no longer exists. If Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla shows the same urgency in following the rule book as he had while disqualifying Rahul within 24 hours of his March 23 conviction by the Surat CJM Court, Rahul’s reinstatement to the Lower House of Parliament should follow as soon as the Lok Sabha Secretariat is in possession of the relevant documents in this regard.

Also read: What does SC’s disqualification stay order mean for Rahul Gandhi?

Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, the Congress leader in the Lok Sabha, has already had one meeting with Birla demanding the restoration of Rahul’s membership. Chowdhury told The Federal that he would meet Birla again on Saturday (August 5) to furnish the apex court’s order along with any other documents required for processing Rahul’s reinstatement. Chowdhury hoped that the Speaker would “abide by the rules” and restore Rahul’s Lok Sabha membership “without any delay” to enable the Wayanad MP to participate in the discussion on the no-confidence motion moved by Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi – and endorsed by over 140 MPs of the INDIA coalition – against the Narendra Modi government.

The discussion on the no-confidence motion is scheduled from August 8 to August 10 and the Congress wants Rahul to be one of its speakers. Any delay on the part of the Speaker to restore Rahul’s membership is certain to trigger protests by MPs of the INDIA bloc at a time when the continuing stalemate between the Opposition and the Treasury Benches on the question of discussing the ongoing ethnic violence in Manipur has already wiped out a major chunk of Parliament’s Monsoon Session. Rahul was the first political leader to visit Manipur following the early rounds of ethnic clashes there and, as such, the Congress wants him to intervene in the discussion on the no-confidence motion brought over the Manipur situation.

Huge morale booster for Congress, INDIA alliance

That the apex court’s order has come as a huge morale booster for the Congress and the wider INDIA bloc was evident in the loud proclamations of victory made by leaders across the Opposition spectrum on Friday (August 4). Soon after the court pronounced its order, the Congress headquarters at 24, Akbar Road saw deafening celebrations by party workers. Rahul, flanked by party president Mallikarjun Kharge, told reporters that he was always certain that “truth will triumph” eventually.

While Rahul’s return as an MP is now inevitable, its timing is at the mercy of the Lok Sabha Speaker. However, whether or not he is able to attend the Lok Sabha for the few remaining sittings of the Monsoon Session, which concludes on August 11, is only a minor concern for the Congress and its allies, new and old, in the INDIA coalition. What would be of greater significance not just to the Congress and the wider Opposition bloc but also in the larger context of India’s volatile political landscape as the 2024 Lok Sabha polls draw near is how Rahul charts his course, hereon.

Equally interesting would be to see how the BJP now responds to Rahul who has, over the years, earned the spurs of being the most trenchant and unwavering critic of Modi and the BJP-RSS combine. The saffron party has already indicated that it would not be cowed down from coming at Rahul with greater ferocity merely because his conviction has been stayed. Amit Malviya, chief of the BJP’s notorious IT Cell, showed his party’s hand through a post on X (formerly Twitter) stating “Rahul Gandhi may have survived this one but for how long?”

Also read: ‘They disqualified him in 24 hrs, let’s see in how many hours…’: Kharge on Rahul

Malviya’s post, with an all-too-obvious admission of the BJP’s influence over the subordinate judiciary, indicated that more adverse court judgments may come against Rahul in quick succession given that “there are several other criminal defamation cases pending against Rahul Gandhi, including the high-profile case of mudslinging the venerable Veer Savarkar, filed by the freedom fighter’s family.”

The post added, “Rahul Gandhi is also an accused, along with his mother Sonia Gandhi, in the National Herald scam, and currently out on bail. Conviction in any of these can lead to his disqualification, again. Let’s not forget that veteran leaders like Lalu Prasad, J Jayalalithaa, among others, have faced disqualification, following convictions…” The cases Malviya mentioned have been pending adjudication at various courts for different spans of time, but was he hinting that these may now move faster towards closure?

BJP’s influence over the lower judiciary

That the BJP has been influencing various constitutional and autonomous institutions, including the judiciary, to target its political rivals has been an allegation Rahul and other Opposition leaders have made innumerable times. Thus, the trajectory of these cases pending against Rahul would be keenly watched now.

Unless the SC-ordered stay is vacated ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, the probability of which is slim, or Rahul is convicted with another two-year sentence in one or more of the many criminal defamation cases filed against him by sundry BJP leaders in courts all over the country (as insinuated by Malviya), there are now no foreseeable hurdles in him entering the electoral fray in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Also read: Truth always triumphs, I thank people for support: Rahul Gandhi

This presents the Congress and its INDIA allies with reasons to be optimistic of improving their electoral prospects against the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as Rahul, with his newly-earned credentials of the Bharat Jodo peacemaker and victim of BJP’s political vendetta, has emerged as a stronger leader within the Opposition multiverse compared to his previous projection of a gaffe-prone, insincere, and entitled dynast.

Conversely, the restoration of his right to contest the polls and the predictable projection by his supporters of Rahul being the best PM candidate against Modi on the 2024 ballot could revive ego clashes and conflicting ambitions that satraps within the INDIA coalition had, so far, managed to consign to the backburner.

INDIA coalition still in chrysalis stage

The INDIA coalition is still at a chrysalis stage. How many of its current 26 constituents remain together when more consequential talks over seat-sharing for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls begin is an open-ended question. Sources from across INDIA constituents told The Federal that navigating through the inherent complications of the coalition and keeping its unpredictable leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Nitish Kumar, and Arvind Kejriwal in good humour would be the first major challenge for Rahul, and also Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge.

At the last meeting of the INDIA coalition in Bangalore, which was hosted by the Congress, Kharge had made it known at the outset that his party wasn’t part of the alliance to hoard either power or the Prime Minister’s post for itself. That was a conciliatory gesture by Kharge made primarily to put other PM aspirants, particularly Banerjee, at ease.

Also read: Congress asks Chair to let Rahul Gandhi attend Lok Sabha

However, INDIA leaders say the statement was made when the possibility of Rahul contesting the 2024 polls was still unclear due to his conviction. “Now that the conviction has been stayed, making it possible for him to contest the polls, we will have to see if there is a change in the tone and tenor of the Congress leadership at the subsequent meetings of the INDIA partners… so far, the position all members of the coalition have agreed upon is that we must first work towards winning the 2024 elections and settle the leadership question once the results are in. This stance, along with the Congress president’s categorical assertion of his party not being interested in the PM’s post, allows many of our key leaders to look past personal prime ministerial ambitions and focus on the actual electoral battle, but if the Congress starts to, covertly or overtly, project Rahul, equations may change,” said a senior INDIA leader.

‘Rahul not interested in PM’s post’

A Congress functionary close to Rahul told The Federal that Rahul “will not deviate from the position taken by Kharge… he has never been interested in the PM’s post and his focus will remain on strengthening the INDIA coalition while exposing Modi and the BJP”. However, the Congress functionary conceded that while “every Congress member wants to see Rahul as PM”, the party high command will have to ensure that “statements detrimental to the interests and unity of our alliance are not made by leaders who want to show their loyalty to Rahul by proclaiming him as the best PM candidate”. This would become even more challenging if the Congress wins the assembly polls due later this year in big states like MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh where the party is pitted directly against the BJP and where Rahul is expected to campaign extensively, the functionary added.

The next meeting of the INDIA coalition is expected to take place in Mumbai on August 31 and September 1. The conclave, to be hosted jointly by NCP founder Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray, will be of greater significance than the one held in Bangalore on July 17 and 18 as the coalition is likely to make some substantive announcements, including the names of its leaders who will be part of the 11-member coordination committee that will oversee the bloc’s activities moving forward. Sources said that contrary to speculation, the coalition is unlikely to name a convenor to avert any disaffection among its constituent parties.

Also read: Modi surname case: SC stays Rahul Gandhi’s conviction

Another INDIA leader from a major regional party said that the Mumbai conclave would be a good opportunity for Rahul to reassure allies that “issues and not personalities or personal ambitions are the Congress’s priority”.  “Among other things, for the alliance to work, what is important is that we do not fall into the BJP’s trap of turning the 2024 elections into a Presidential-style contest where Modi is pitted against a Rahul, Mamata, or Nitish for the PM’s post… the issues we have collectively and individually identified as planks to fight the BJP are important… not just Rahul but all members of INDIA need to stick to issues because on unemployment, price rise, internal security, China, Adani, etc., the BJP has no answer. So, we have to work with what can unite us and not on divisive issues like the alliance’s PM-face,” the leader said.

Sources close to Rahul say this is also the strategy he prefers. A Congress MP close to Rahul added, “Forget being interested in being projected as the PM face, Rahul is very clear that he doesn’t wish to take centrestage even in discussions of the alliance… he will defer to Kharge, who will lead the party’s interventions whenever the INDIA constituents meet, and whatever he needs to convey will mostly be conveyed through the Congress president unless Rahul is specifically asked to share his views on some matter. This should put our allies, some of whom may still have reservations about him taking a leadership role in the alliance, at ease.”

Bharat Jodo Yatra 2.0 may be on the cards

There is also a view among some INDIA leaders that the SC’s ruling now gives the perfect opportunity to Rahul to embark on the much-anticipated second leg of an east-to-west Bharat Jodo Yatra. A BJY 2.0, INDIA leaders feel, could act as a catalyst for political change in 2024. Sources said that since an east-west yatra would cross states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Bengal, where major INDIA constituents like the Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, RJD, JMM, CPM, CPI, and JD (U) have bigger electoral footprints and organisational heft, Rahul and the Congress should ensure that these parties are at the vanguard of the march as and when it crosses their respective states.