BJP has not just broken the Uttar Pradesh jinx of 35 years to score the second consecutive win in the state assembly elections, its victory is going to set the course of Indian politics till 2024 Lok Sabha elections and beyond.
A few things become clear from the very context in which the elections took place. The results in UP come in the face of several factors that were working against the BJP and its state government led by Yogi Adityanath. The farmers were not just unhappy, they were angry with BJP to the extent that in several villages its leaders were not allowed to enter, much less campaign. The anger came out of the perception of complete insensitivity of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Adityanath towards them. The involvement of Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Ajay Mishra Teni and his son in the mowing down of protesting farmers in Lakhimpur Kheri, and the lack of prompt action against them, fuelled this anger.
As a corollary to this, the communal polarisation that had been benefitting the BJP since the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots had disappeared and the Jats and Muslims of western UP were seemingly united against the BJP. The state government’s failure to ensure timely payments to sugarcane farmers had further aggravated the situation.
If that was the situation in western UP, in the east, it was the menace of stray cattle destroying the crops, forcing farmers to stay up at nights to guard their fields, often to no avail. Many were attacked and injured by stray bulls roaming the land.
The students and youth were angry with the state government as they felt they faced an uncertain and dark future due to the unprecedented level unemployment had reached in the state.
The mismanagement of COVID and the bodies floating in the Ganga or buried on its banks was still a fresh memory, especially among those who had lost their near and dear ones due to lack of medical facilities and oxygen.
There were other issues such as the land scams in Ayodhya right next to the site where the famed Ram temple is being constructed, the handling of anti-Citizenship Amendment Act agitation and confiscation of protesters’ property, and police lathicharge on student agitators.
Ultimately, none of this mattered in elections. People voted for the BJP despite the insensitivity of the government, its failures in governance, and its mismanagement of crises.
The BJP would obviously see this as a stamp of approval on its ways. Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Adityanath would continue to participate in Hindu religious functions, flaunting their religious identity despite holding high offices of a secular state. And, evident as it has been for a long time, they will continue using such events for electoral consolidation.
The victory sets the stage for a much larger role for Adityanath. The RSS experiment in installing a person with strong, hardline Hindutva identity as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, the most important state in Indian politics, has paid off. Adityanath is already seen by many as a natural successor of Modi as prime minister, and one who will, predictably, be even more ruthless in pursuing his social and political goals and in dealing with minorities, dissidents, and rivals.
This mandate clearly shows the electorate’s overwhelming acceptance for Hindutva politics despite personal grievances against policies that have led to mass-scale unemployment, rising prices, and other issues that seemingly hit closer home. The voters’ stamp of approval is what ultimately matters in an electoral democracy and for the BJP, this huge victory can easily be seen as an endorsement and encouragement for the RSS’ long-cherished goal of the establishment of a Hindu Rashtra by the time the outfit celebrates its 100 years in 2025.
There are already indications of what it would mean. Actions that would invite criticism and censure earlier go unquestioned in the new normal that has been created. Buying up legislators, toppling elected governments are an everyday affair and no one raises questions “because that is what politics is all about”.
Interference in courses of universities, other educational institutions, and cultural organisations, meddling with their autonomy, installing persons of doubtful or questionable intellectual calibre as their chiefs, are all passé now.
Independent institutions that were meant to act as democracy’s checks and balances are already being made subservient to the government. Many actions, and instances of lack of action, by the Election Commission have been criticised as being partial to the Modi government. These range from setting election dates to acting against BJP’s political rivals while turning a blind eye to violations of model code of conduct by Modi and other BJP leaders. Brazenly communal statements by some BJP leaders, who should have been barred from voting or campaigning and booked under criminal charges were completely ignored by the EC.
During his election campaign, the BJP MLA from Domariyaganj said if someone did not vote for him, “he has Muslim blood in his veins, is an illegitimate child of Jaichand and is a traitor.” UP deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya targeted people who wear skull caps, and Chief Minister Adityanath talked about 80 per cent versus 20 per cent. The EC did not even issue a show cause notice to them.
If the Election Commission has been reduced to the status of a government department, as a political commentator said on a YouTube channel, government departments functioning directly under the government have become agencies of BJP’s party politics. The Enforcement Directorate (ED), Income Tax Department (IT), the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and National Investigation Agency (NIA) are used to harass and intimidate opposition leaders and journalists or others critical of the government.
Modi sets up a PM-CARES (Prime Minister’s Citizen Assistance and Relief in Emergency Situations) Fund, collects money for it as prime minister, and insulates it from scrutiny or obligation to give information under the Right to Information (RTI), saying it is not a public authority. The whole affair does not create any ripples.
The government makes political funding opaque for everyone except itself, so that only it has access to information about who funded which party. This sends out a clear message to those donating money of what they could be in for if the government is annoyed with them over funding. But it is all okay for the people and the courts.
All this is already there, but the forthcoming journey into ‘Hindu Rashtra’ will bring more innovative steps. The country waits with bated breath – though many may be feeling “throttled” instead. Welcome to New India, that is Hindu Rashtra.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Noida)
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)