Russia-Ukraine war is tiring the world, but no sign of conflict ending

With Russia “formalising” its occupation of eastern Ukraine through a contentious referendum, all its cards are now finally on the table. And, they don’t indicate better tidings. The rest of the world should brace itself for a long battle of attrition, the outcome of which is bound to have negative consequences for everyone.

Ukraine, which may have earlier contemplated backing off from its move to join the Western military alliance, NATO, has now firmly affirmed its commitment to go ahead with it. This, ironically, was the original provocation that triggered the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If NATO does embrace Ukraine, the seven-month conflict can go totally out of hand, if it already hasn’t.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not going to keep quiet if this development fructifies.

On the other hand, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, egged on by the US-led West, will not want to be seen as being passive over Russian belligerence. He has already asked the West to hasten the process of enabling Kyiv to join NATO.

Also read: Ukraine war: Media is fully fair neither in US nor in Russia

Russian gains vs US sanctions

On the ground, Russia is gaining strategically despite occasional tactical setbacks.  The US, which was firm on Ukraine joining NATO, is aware of this. But the Joe Biden administration needs to appear concerned and aggressive lest it is seen to be losing the plot. So, the US does what it knows best: tightening sanctions, fully well knowing it is not going to make a decisive difference.

The sanctions, so far, have only had a marginal impact on Russia. If at all, the US’s own allies in Western Europe are affected, on the rebound. According to reports, with autumn fast receding, it looks like a looming winter nightmare for large parts of Europe with no access to Russian fuel. Moscow is not unduly concerned in losing its Western customers. With China firmly with Russia and fence-sitters like India providing a ready market for Moscow’s fuel, there does not seem to be an immediate threat to Putin’s war.

If at all, Putin is sitting pretty having recently accomplished the strategically important task of formalising the occupation of the four Ukraine territories – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – in the east. This now provides a buffer zone that will cushion Russia even if NATO eventually manages to enter Ukraine.

From a Russian viewpoint, the arrival of NATO at a hand-shaking distance is undoubtedly a long-term threat. But the annexed Ukraine territories can potentially give Moscow some leeway to militarily manoeuvre in the event of a NATO attack.

The issue now is whether Putin will go further in the event of an even active Western involvement in the conflict. Though he has no choice but to carry on with the fight, a creeping reality is the increasing disenchantment within Russia over the continuing war with Ukraine. Already videos have emerged of thousands of Russians attempting to flee the country to escape forced conscription into the military.

Troubling signs for Putin

For Putin, these are troubling signs of internal civil society’s opposition to the war even if he projects it as a fight for Russia’s survival. In recent weeks, Ukraine has been making some inroads into areas occupied by the Russian military even if they are ephemeral. Kyiv has not been able to hold on to its gains in liberating Ukrainian territory in the face of Russian pushback. Yet, this is a sign that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, with active support from the West, has the ability to fight back.

The conflict, overall, is taking a toll on both Russia and Ukraine. In the case of Ukraine, some 6,000 have been killed and 10,000 are injured. For Russia, the rouble has depreciated and price of goods within the country has skyrocketed, among other things.

The world too is suffering the pains of the conflict between two important nations.   According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), much of the world is headed into a recession due to the drying up of energy supplies from Russia and an engulfing inflation. Global growth, which needs to be at a minimum of 4 per cent to sustain an increasing population, will touch only half that figure. The consequences on the ground can be quite severe, especially for people who are already in the lower end of the economic bracket.

This was the reason why Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s comment to Putin on this not being the time for war received far greater attention in a section of the world’s media. Of course, the question that none asked was: what then would be a better time for war. The point being that war is never an option and conflicts historically have always been painful to everyone, especially to those directly affected by it.

Tight rope walk

For India, tangentially, the continuation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict can only mean tougher times – both politically and economically. So far, the Modi government has managed to walk on the tight rope of diplomacy – either without offending the US or Russia, or offending both minimally. New Delhi’s votes on various issues linked to the conflict in the United Nations are a clear indicator of the delicate dance it is performing.

But recent developments in the conflict are bound to strain India’s policy to a point where sometime in the near future it may be arm-twisted into taking a hard decision.  For example, within the Quad countries India alone has desisted from criticising Russia while the other three have been strident in their opposition to Putin’s invasion and the consequent developments.

India’s contrarian view, in fact, reduces the efficacy of the Quad grouping and brings into question its future as New Delhi’s strategic interests are more divergent than in conformity with the US, Japan and Australia, the other three members.

Also read: India abstains in UN vote over Russia’s referendum and annexations in Ukraine

Letting India free to have its own policy, different from that advocated by its ally, the US can only go thus far and no further. Modi’s statement to Putin ideally should have been followed by active moves by New Delhi to end the conflict. India, unfortunately, does not have the heft in international politics to undertake such a task.  It could try, but that is not yet happening – either because of real limitations or low self-esteem.

Media reports from the West, meanwhile, have variously referred to a serious ailment Putin is suffering from or a coup that dislodged Chinese President Xi Jinping. So far these have proved to be wishful thinking, but they indicate that the world largely is getting tired of the Kyiv-Moscow conflict and would do anything to stop it.