Kamala Harris poses a dilemma for Indian-American Republican voter

For Indians in the United States planning to vote for the Republicans, the choice of Kamala Devi Harris as Democratic nominee for vice-president is bound to unsettle their choice on voting day later this year.

The historic choice of an Afro-Asian female candidate of partly-Indian origin for the number two job is something that cannot be easily passed over. At the same time, the Indian Republican vote base, however minimal, is also conscious that any Democrat in office will have to follow the party’s policies on all issues. A shift in favour of Harris therefore cannot be taken for granted, either.

A section of desi voters in the US, who ideologically identify with the right-wing Hindu nationalists under the Sangh Parivar back home, will carefully scrutinise Harris’s position on issues related to India.  And, on this score, Harris is not someone they will prefer. Her position on Kashmir is clearly an antithetical view in that she has condemned “human rights abuses” in that state – especially since a year when the BJP’s Narendra Modi government abrogated special status to Kashmir and downgraded it from a state into a union territory.

Harris, late last year, when she was aiming for the Democrats’ presidential nomination took a stand against the cancellation of Art 370 related to Kashmir. She was quoted by the media as having said, “We have to remind the Kashmiris that they are not alone in the world. We are keeping track on the situation. There is a need to intervene if the situation demands.”

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She also backed a Democratic Senator Pramila Jayapal’s resolution urging the Indian government to lift restrictions on Kashmir. Harris noticeably did not attend the much-hyped ‘Howdy Modi’ event at Houston, Texas in September last.

On the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) which caused much outrage and protests in India, Kamala Harris along with four fellow Democratic Senators took a position against the amendment.

Harris interestingly, more often than not, identifies herself as a “Black” with Caribbean ancestry.  Though she acknowledges her mother as Indian, and her ties to Chennai is well documented, rarely has she referred to her Indian ancestry. While this has raised questions about how she identifies herself, the fact is she is both of Asian origin and African-American (since her dad is from Jamaica).

If media reports are anything to go by, Harris would want to garner Indian votes, if not Asian. But, she may not necessarily go with the official Indian government views on contentious subjects including Kashmir.

Historically, the Republicans have been far more India-friendly compared to the Democrats. This has been the case generally, other than a few exceptions.

The Indo-US nuclear deal was pushed by the Republican administration of George W Bush, for instance. His predecessor, Bill Clinton, a Democrat on the other hand imposed sanctions on India for its nuclear test in 1998, and criticised human rights violations in Kashmir.

On the issue of software outsourcing to India, Republicans have backed it while the Democrats have attempted to stall and reduce the practice. Harris, however, being a senator from California, the home of the world’s “Silicon Valley”, is considered to be sympathetic to the concerns of the tech industry including giants like Facebook. Presidential hopeful Joe Biden too is reportedly an advocate of outsourcing. One can therefore expect an internal party struggle on the issue if the Democrats come to power.

In general, the Republicans being votaries of a free market and minimal regulations, have always viewed India as an untapped market. Towards this Republican administrations have pressured India to open up. Going against the grain, the Trump administration, miffed with India’s resistance to more open trade, removed it from the GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) list that enabled a host of concessions to Indian imports into that country.

The responses of US administrations are also largely linked to geopolitics. With China now rising as a big power, the US is tending to increasingly lean on India along with countries like Australia and Japan to check Beijing’s belligerence.

So if the Democrats win in the forthcoming elections, as some surveys have predicted, the issue of friendship with India may go beyond traditional parameters and worldview of the two dominant US political parties.

Harris’s nomination may only serve to increase the vote share of the Democrats among Indian-origin voters as most of them anyway are traditional supporters of the Democratic Party. According to some media reports, a large section of Indian-Americans belonging to the Hindu community may switch support to the Republicans, given the rising activity of Hindutva-linked organisations in the US, like the Hindu American Political Action Committee.

However, until now, various surveys including a recent one in May by the Pew Research Center, say at least 50 percent of Indian-Americans back the Democrats while just 18 percent support Republicans. In absolute terms, there are around 11 million Asian-Americans eligible to vote in the November elections, and they comprise five percent of the total electorate. Of this, 1.87 million are Indian-American voters. In the event of a close contest, their vote could make a difference.

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Republicans have responded to the surveys dismissively on the grounds that President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have established a great rapport and this would swing voters their way. Modi had famously and controversially said at the Houston event last year that the “next government would be Trump’s” — breaking unwritten rules of diplomacy not to take sides in political contests of other nations.

Even if Modi’s assertion had made an impact in favour of the Republicans, no surprises if the nomination of Harris as the Democrats’ vice-presidential candidate neutralises this to an extent. After all, she has a strong Indian link and is on the verge of making history.

(This report was updated on August 20 incorporating corrections to statistics relating to Asian-American and Indian-American voters)