Choosing Rawat’s successor a herculean task; being new CDS, tougher

After the untimely death of Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat in a copter crash on Wednesday (December 8), the Centre is in a fix as to who could be his worthy successor because ever since the post of CDS was carved out in 2019, there has been no conclusive discussion on creating an immediate line of succession for the coveted post.

Army Chief General MM Naravane is the senior-most officer among all the three service chiefs and is the prime candidate to take over as CDS, say sources. Rawat had one full year before the completion of his three-year stint.

While it looks for a new Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), the government also has to find a suitable candidate for the post of Secretary of the Department of Military Affairs (DMA) as Gen Rawat held the dual position when he was alive.

In contrast, the line of succession is clearly defined in the three forces – the Army, the Navy and the Air Force. The second-in-command takes over the charge (temporarily) if the lead officer becomes indisposed. That is not the case with CDS though. There is a post of a Vice Chief of Defence Staff, a three-star officer, but the person holding the position is clearly not meant to take over as the CDS, even for a short period of time.

Also read: General Naravane, Air Chief Marshal Bhadauria top contenders for CDS post

Since the post of the CDS is akin to a bureaucratic appointment, the government has to make a fresh appointment — temporarily or full time.

The military and bureaucracy are presently deliberating on finding an officiating CDS. The CDS was also the permanent head of the Chiefs of Staff Committee (CoSC), which includes the three service chiefs. Before there was a CDS, the senior-most service chief would automatically take over as the chairman of CoSC.

The final decision on the appointment of a CDS can only be taken by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), which is believed to have held the first round of discussion on Wednesday (December 8) evening.

General Manoj Mukund Naravane, the current Army chief, who is slated to retire in April 2022, is the frontrunner to be the CDS, as the current IAF and Navy chiefs are two years junior to him and have assumed their posts recently.

Chairman IDS to the Chairman COSC (CISC), who enjoys the rank of a Vice Chief of Service, can stand-in for the CDS if the latter is unavailable for ceremonial roles, but with no executionary powers.

Since the CISC is a three-star officer, it will be difficult for him to officiate over the CoSC with four-star officers.

In case the Centre does not select either of the serving chiefs (Army, Navy, Air Force), it will have to elevate a three-star officer to the equivalent rank of a General to make him the new Chief of Defence Staff.

Large shoes to fill

Experts say there is no urgency to announce a new CDS as the officer does not have any operational duties. Despite being drawn from the military, a CDS is a bureaucrat whose role is to provide advice to the government. Besides, the chiefs of the Army, Navy and Indian Air Force exercise complete control over their forces and can execute duties without the supervision of a CDS.

Experts say the government’s hunt for Rawat’s successor is solely driven by the goal to finish his “unfinished work”, one of the crucial among them being the formation of four new unified commands: the integrated maritime theatre command (MTC) air defence command (ADC), and two land-based commands for Pakistan and China.

Also read: Gen Rawat: The man who rose through ranks to become country’s first CDS

The role of the new CDS will be far challenging than his predecessor as he will be faced with the actual prospect of a two-front war – from Pakistan in the western front and China, triggered by the Galwan clash, in the eastern side – while also having to tackle China-backed insurgency in the Northeast.

The new CDS will also have to ensure that the three services – the army, the navy and the air force – work together and help them iron out past differences, while also striving to bridge the gap between bureaucrats and the military, a task Rawat was entrusted with as the secretary of DMA.