Delhi, Kolkata, Ahmedabad among world’s ‘most unsustainable’ megacities

Delhi, Kolkata and Ahmedabad are going to be among the “most unsustainable” megacities in South Asia, according to a global think tank’s report published earlier this week. The report also reveals that the world will add at least 14 new megacities, with the population of each of these surpassing 10 million by 2050.

The megacities in South Asia, which include Dhaka (Bangladesh) and Lahore (Pakistan), will see their populations grow by at least 50 per cent. Many of these cities are at risk of threats, including food and water insecurity, conflict and high crime rates, besides climate-change related disasters, like flooding and drought, the report said.

These growing cities will add to 33 existing megacities. Their rise, and the rapid pace of urban expansion, will be unsustainable due to the ecological threats and lack of societal resilience, warns a report by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). A megacity, according to the definition of the United Nations (UN), is a city with more than 10 million inhabitants.

Ahmedabad to see ecological disasters

South Asia, the report stated, has the second-worst Ecological Threat Report (ETR) score. Cities like Ahmedabad will be increasingly exposed to extremely high levels of air pollution, water stress and catastrophic-weather disasters, it warned. With many moving to already-crowded city centres — seeking shelter, stability and refuge from climate catastrophes —there will be tremendous pressure on infrastructure, and the government to provide jobs and services.

Delhi, Kolkata and Ahmedabad are among the megacities in South Asia listed by the report as being the most unsustainable. “Generally, they are in low-income, low-peace countries, meaning they simply don’t have the financial capacity to be able to cope with the growth,” IEP’s founder Steve Killelea was quoted as saying. A lack of finances can block cities from improving critical infrastructure, reducing crime and supporting the local economy. Those with the largest population growth — mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia — will see resources stretch even thinner and confront the most sustainability challenges.

Five unsustainable megacities in Sub-Saharan Africa

The fastest-growing cities in sub-Saharan Africa are projected to be home to 2.1 billion people over the next three decades. According to the report, the region includes five of the 20 most at-risk emerging and existing megacities. Among the most unsustainable are Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo; Nairobi, Kenya; and Lagos, Nigeria, all of which could see their metro area populations grow by at least 80%.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the worst ecological threat report (ETR) score, which measures a country’s population growth alongside its vulnerability to food insecurity, natural disasters and water stress, according to the report.

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Several cities also rank low or very low on IEP’s Positive and Global Peace Indices, which quantify a country’s level of peacefulness as it relates to social and economic resilience. They include three rapidly emerging megacities: The Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi metro areas. They could see their current populations more than double to 16.4 million and 10.4 million, respectively. The population in Luanda (Angola) will grow by 62% to 14.6 million people, the report said.

But while more than half of the region’s population considers crime and violence as more urgent than climate change, the report emphasizes that ecological degradation, resilience and conflict are intertwined.

East vs West

In the East, Dhaka’s population could grow from 22.6 million to 34.6 million, testing the city’s housing infrastructure, among other things, the report said. The Bangladesh government has already predicted that one in every seven citizens will be displaced by climate change by 2050. In Dhaka’s informal settlements, sewage is inadequate, fresh water is lacking, and illegal gas lines and burners raise the risks of fires. They have been expanding into hazardous, low-lying areas near water, putting residents at risk of dangerous flooding.

However, it’s not just megacities in the East that stare at crisis, the cities in developed countries aren’t without threat, despite having more resources to adapt. Chicago and London metro areas will both surpass 10 million residents in 2050, the report said The New York metro area will see its population jump from 18.9 million to 22.8 million. These cities face rising threats of extreme heat and catastrophic flooding that will put pressure on aging storm-drain systems and pose particularly significant risks to underserved communities.

The report calls for interventions like multilateral cooperation between governments and the private sector, and budgetary restructuring to prioritize ecological adaptation. A key solution, it stated, was the economic empowerment in low- and middle-income countries. Not only will that boost resilience through improving the workforce, empowering women in particular will also lead to smaller family sizes and better health policies in low- and middle-income countries, as some studies have shown.

The report also calls for cities to empower local communities to address challenges, as opposed to top-down interventions. Community-led approaches make better use of local knowledge and garner greater community buy-in, thereby reducing research and implementation costs, it said.