Taliban's return, China-Pak-Afghan axis issues of concern: Tharoor

The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan is a major cause of worry for the Indian establishment. The former Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor too echoes this point in an exclusive interview to The Federal stating: ‘India has a lot to worry about’.

Further, Tharoor says that with Taliban under the influence of Islamabad’s spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), India’s policymakers are probably expecting a Pakistan-Afghanistan-China axis, and New Delhi’s anxiety is completely warranted. However, Tharoor advises that India should not let go of their Russian partnership and should also engage diplomatically to ensure that the issue with China never deteriorates into armed conflict.

Dr Tharoor, who was also a former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations, also points out that the UN has not had a direct role in Afghanistan, other than requesting the Taliban regime to allow them to provide humanitarian assistance, monitoring human rights violations and assisting with evacuations in Afghanistan.

Here are the excerpts from the interview:

Q. What are the issues that directly affect India following the return of the Taliban?

Tharoor: India has a lot to worry about. I think that since Kabul is now under the influence of Islamabad, we are going to have to contend with a China-Pakistan-Afghanistan axis. This is potentially a significant threat to India. In 1996-2001, the Russians shared our view of the Taliban and were of significant help. Now that is not the case.

The Russians are pro-Chinese and appear to be neutral on Afghanistan’s issues with India.
Iran’s government will not oppose the Taliban government, provided they do not mistreat the Shia minority. If the Taliban behaves with these minorities like they did in their previous regime, Iran will not stand by them. But if the Taliban make amends and allow these minorities to live peacefully, the Iranians will also become neutral.

India will be friendless on our northwestern border at a time when we are seeing the Chinese pushing our Line of Actual Control in the north. So, it is not going to be a propitious situation, and we need to gather all our resources of diplomacy to face this challenge.

Q. Do you think the Taliban may intervene in places where Muslims are present and this may pose a threat to India?

Tharoor: The Taliban is speaking with discordant voices. One set, mainly those in Doha, said they wanted good relations with India. The Taliban spokesperson Sultan Shaheen said that wherever Muslims are prevalent they have an obligation to speak up. But they didn’t say they will act or support actions against us. Don’t be encouraged by positive words or discouraged by negative words. Instead, look at their actions. The bigger worry we have, which we have seen last time as well is when a large number of fighters came from Afghanistan to Kashmir with the encouragement, training and financial support of Pakistan. That turned out to be the cause of the major trouble in Kashmir.

Also read: Qatar urges world leaders not to boycott Taliban

Q: Are you anxious by the precedent set by the Taliban and the influence of the Pakistani establishment on it?

Tharoor: Indian anxiety is understandable and warranted. But the Pakistanis, too, have some challenges. When the Taliban took over Afghanistan in 1996, there were many ISI operatives deployed in the military and the government in Kabul. I would describe it as a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Pakistani ISI.

Today’s Taliban is a complicated creature. First of all, they have internal problems with Pakistan. Mullah Baradar, the official number two of Pakistan, has been imprisoned in Pakistan for eight years. So everyone in the Afghanistan establishment is not pro-Pakistan.

Secondly, during the last 25 years since the Taliban was originally created, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan has also emerged, which is a different Taliban, whose mission is to establish an Islamic emirate in Pakistan. So obviously, the Pakistani security establishment does not want that.

In the past, Pakistan enjoyed tremendous American support because US relied on them to ensure their logistics supplies into Afghanistan. Now, America doesn’t need Pakistan because they don’t have their troops in Afghanistan whom they need to support and supply.

Another important factor is the rise of the militant Islamic group called the “Islamic State- Khorassan,” which allegedly wanted to establish a new Caliphate from Iran to Bangladesh. Though many believe this group should not be taken seriously, there are reasons for concern in Islamabad. Though Pakistan has created Taliban Jaish E Mohammed and another half a dozen or more terrorist outfits, some of these outfits are ready to come after Pakistan since they deem the Islamabad government to be not sufficiently Islamic.

Hence, it is not going to be smooth sailing for Pakistan in the long run, though at present in the short term, it is a victory for Pakistan.

Q. What do you think of the future of the massive investments India made in Afghanistan?

Tharoor: India invested US $3 billion in Afghanistan for the development assistance of the country. We have invested in lasting assets, including the Salma dam, the Zaranj-Delaram highway across South West Afghanistan towards Iran, 24/7 electricity supply from Pul-e-Charkhi to Kabul, the new Afghan parliament building, plus a large number of hospitals and schools, particularly for women and girls.

We were the second largest donor in Afghanistan, and it represented India’s single largest foreign aid contribution. India hasn’t spent that much anywhere, not even in Sri Lanka. So for us to see these assets falling into the Taliban’s hands is a disappointing experience.

Also check: Afghan President leaves; Taliban takes over Kabul

Q: How do you assess the Narendra Modi government’s foreign policy and its capacity to address the challenges ahead? Will the right-wing nationalism of the BJP government impede in addressing our diplomatic challenges?

Tharoor: I am not a big fan of the Modi government and the Hindu nationalism business. But on Afghanistan in particular, and on the foreign policy crisis and the immediate effect on national security, I tend to speak with the same voice. At the end of the day, I believe that domestic politics should stop at the water’s edge, and we should all think of our national interest first.

When we think of Afghanistan, there would not be much difference what a Congress government or a BJP can do except the Congress government would not have needlessly given a bad name for India among the Muslim countries, especially through the domestic statements, which come out of the Modi government and its supporters.

Our domestic developments and statements are bound to have created the sense that we are a country that does not sufficiently respect Muslim people and that I believe is most unfortunate. When it comes to the actual foreign policy of the government of India vis-a-vis Taliban and Afghanistan, I support the government in wanting to ensure that Indian interests are protected.

Q. Traditionally, India maintained a non-aligned stand in its foreign policy which always lent us respect. However, the recent tilt towards the US has resulted in an imbalance. Will that result in India losing our strategic partners in the long run?

Tharoor: I often wonder whether we would be inveigled by China’s unremitting hostility into exploring options that could result in letting ourselves become an ally of the west.

The Chinese put us in a difficult position, and we are exploring options to strengthen ourselves against them. The Quad puts us in a partnership with the US, Australia and Japan, but it is essentially a maritime arrangement in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. The challenge we have is on land, in protecting our borders and our territorial integrity.

It would be unwise to keep us locked into any formal alliance, but we should open ourselves and engage with many countries. We should not let go of our Russian partnership. We should also engage diplomatically to ensure that the issue with China never deteriorates into armed conflict.

Abhish K. Bose is a Kerala-based journalist who contributes to various English publications. He was formerly a staff correspondent with The Deccan Chronicle and The Times of India. He can be reached at abhishdc@gmail.com