India may see mild 3rd wave of COVID in early 2022: IIT scientist

India may witness an Omicron-driven mild third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic between January and February next year, an IIT professor has claimed, quoting the findings of a government-sponsored mathematical project.

Manindra Agrawal, a professor at IIT Kanpur and the co-founder of the Sutra model, used to mathematically map the course of the pandemic in India, has said that cases of the new Omicron variant will peak in early 2022 around the same time states like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur will go to polls.

Also read: India gets tough on travellers flouting new COVID rules; FIR against offenders

“As observed during spread of delta, a mild lockdown (night curfew, restrictions on crowding) can bring down beta substantially. That will significantly reduce peak value,” Agarwal said in a series of tweets.

He, however, said that unlike the second wave which saw a massive shortage of hospital and ICU beds as well as oxygen cylinders for gasping patients, Agarwal said the hospitalisation load during the third wave could be way lower due to the mild nature of the cases.

“We need to wait for more data to be sure,” he said.

Countering claims of South African scientists, Agarwal said there is no evidence to show that the variant has the ability to bypass natural immunity in any significant way.

He added that as per data the Omicron variant is not responsible for the critical cases globally, but only for mild ones.

Agarwal said the government should prepare for the outbreak by administering booster vaccine shots to healthcare workers and complete the inoculation of the population that is yet to receive jabs.

The Union Health Ministry on Saturday said that while the severity of the disease caused due to the Omicron virus is yet to be known, it is anticipated to be low.

The government last month, just before the Omicron variant was reported, had claimed that India is unlikely to witness a third wave of the COVID pandemic of the magnitude of the devastating second wave.

Stating that a slowdown in cases has shown that the vaccines are still protecting individuals against the virus, AIIMS director Dr Randeep Guleria had said that a booster shot of the vaccine may be unlikely anytime soon.

Also read: Booster COVID-19 vaccination dose for those at risk above 40: INSACOG

India on Sunday saw its COVID-19 death toll rise by 2,796 while 8,895 new infections were reported, even as the country readies to counter an Omicron outbreak.

A fifth case of the new variant was reported in Delhi on Sunday. The infected person was an Indian who had returned from Tanzania.

The variant which was first detected in South Africa has now spread to 30 countries.