Gujarat | Will disruptor Vaghela spell tough luck for BJP yet again?

Shankarsinh Vaghela is at it again. The former Gujarat Chief Minister last week announced his return to electoral politics with the launch of a new party.

The Praja Shakti Democratic Party (PSDP) marks Vaghela's third party launch since he quit the BJP way back in 1996. The state’s political circles are now abuzz with speculation — will he be third time lucky as a disruptor?

‘Bapu’, as Vaghela is commonly referred to in the political circles of Gujarat, announced on December 3 that the PSDP will be contesting the upcoming local body polls Gujarat.

Third venture

After quitting the BJP in 1996, Vaghela first formed the Rashtriya Janata Party that later merged with the Congress. In 2017, he quit the Congress to form the Jan Vikalp Morcha and contested the Gujarat Assembly polls the same year.

Also read: Why Gujarat tribals miss Chhotubai Vasava, now a spent political force

The Jan Vikalp Morcha contested 100 seats in the 2017 Assembly elections but drew a blank. However, the party significantly cut into BJP votes in the Saurashtra region, leading to the saffron party’s defeat in several seats.

“Bapu’s return to electoral politics has always hurt the BJP. In 1996, he toppled our government. In 2017, we lost several seats and won 16 by very narrow margins in the Saurashtra region," former Rajkot BJP chief Kamlesh Mirani told The Federal.

"In north Gujarat, some of our veteran leaders barely managed to win by a margin of less than 5,000 votes. Vaghela’s party did not win any seat but it considerably cut into BJP’s vote share," Mirani added.

"In 2017, we had a vote share of around 49 per cent and Congress had a vote share of 41.5 per cent, while Vaghela’s party polled around 6 per cent of votes across the state. Our vote share in 2012 state poll was around 55 per cent,” he further said.

BJP takes a hit

“In fact, Vaghela also impacted the BJP in the 2012 Assembly polls that he did not even contest. Ahead of the polls, his supporters resorted to an ad campaign in some local newspapers detailing his achievements as the chief minister. The campaign coincided with his birthday.

"Subsequently, the BJP, which was already facing anti-incumbency, was forced to come out with ads across all media platforms detailing the achievements of then Chief Minister Narendra Modi. The whole campaign lasted a week,” said the senior BJP leader.

“There is probably no other leader in Gujarat of his stature. He is in fact the only leader who has held the position of state president in both the BJP as well as the Congress,” he added.

A perpetual rebel

Notably, in 1996, Vaghela’s Rashtriya Janata Party toppled the BJP government with the support of the Congress and he became the chief minister representing the newly formed party.

His stint as a Chief Minister lasted only a year as his party lost the Assembly elections in 1998, following which he merged his party with the Congress. Later, he became the Leader of Opposition in the Gujarat Assembly before being sent to the Centre as Union Textile Minister.

Also read: Morbi tragedy: 2 years later, no closure, no compensation for victims

However, after being away from state politics for some years, his ambition prompted him to rebel again, this time against the Congress, for not projecting him as the CM candidate during the 2017 Assembly polls. He quit the Congress to form his second new party — the Jan Vikalp Morcha.

“A perpetual rebel, Vaghela is originally an RSS man who built the BJP from the ground in Gujarat and has been a natural mass leader. Despite his long association, Vaghela quit the BJP when it was at its peak in the state," Manishi Jaani, an Ahmedabad-based sociologist and political analyst, told The Federal.

"Vaghela got miffed at not being made the chief minister when the party first came to power on its own in 1995. A few months later, he flew with 48 BJP MLAs to Khajuraho, orchestrating a rebellion that stands out as one of the most sensational events in the political history of Gujarat,” Jaani added. 

“Vaghela’s exit has been one the biggest losses for the BJP till date. Even now the party doesn’t have a prominent Kshatriya leader of his stature who is popular across Saurashtra, an area dominated by Darbars (Kshatriyas) and also in North Gujarat from where he hails.” 

An opportunity for Congress

Vaghela, who began his political career as a student with Seva Dal, got enrolled in Jan Sangh and since then has been a staunch right-wing leader. He has been a key member of the RSS in Gujarat who travelled across the state to strengthen the BJP. Later, he mentored several senior leaders of BJP, including Modi.

Also read: Gujarat | All that is not Gandhian about Sabarmati Ashram makeover

“Vaghela has spent most of his three decades of political career with right wing outfits. This might be one of the reasons why the political parties he floated did not fare well when backed by the Congress in the 1998 Assembly polls or the 2017 elections. He still has considerable clout among the BJP supporters,” Indira Hirway, an author and political analyst, told The Federal.

“Though he may not be as powerful as he was several years ago during the prime of his political career he will certainly make a dent into the BJP’s vote bank, if his new party contests the local body elections. It should be a concern for the BJP which did not fare well in local body polls until 2017.

"Being dominated by rural pockets, local body polls have always been a forte of the Congress in Gujarat. It was only after the 2017 Assembly polls when the BJP’s vote share dipped, the ruling party began to focus on rural politics and made a significant impact by 2018. By 2019, the Congress was ousted from its strongholds with the BJP winning 90 per cent of the seats. Vaghela’s move to contest the local body polls might give Congress a chance to revive itself,” she added.