TN floods: "Could quicker, sharper IMD forecast have lessened impact?"

The southern Tamil Nadu districts of Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi received massive rainfall that was far above the prediction of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for December 17 and 18, Chief Minister MK Stalin said on Tuesday (December 19).

Speaking to reporters in Delhi on Tuesday, Stalin said Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi received their annual rainfall on a single day, leading to massive inundation. However, the IMD could not predict the rainfall on that massive scale, he said.

On the previous evening, a senior minister in his Cabinet, Mano Thangaraj, posted a big note on X, suggesting that “the unforeseen severity and impact” of the floods “could have been mitigated with more precise and timely forecasts” from the IMD and that more accurate “insights” from the weathermen “regarding the severity of the situation could have further reduced the impact and loss”.

“Time discrepancy”

Thangaraj, Minister for Milk & Dairy Development and DMK MLA from Padmanabapuram constituency, also alleged in his X post that there was a “time discrepancy in the weather alerts”. “The gap between the issuance of the Red Alert and the actual flooding was much shorter than what could have been ideal as some western models exhibit in those countries,” he wrote.

Asserting that “the Tamil Nadu government has exerted considerable effort to manage this crisis”, Thangaraj emphasised that the “critical delay in our forecasting system underscores the need for more immediate and accurate weather alerts”.

Thangaraj also claimed in his post that “differing rainfall predictions between the IMD and Western models are real” and that “Western models anticipate heavier and more immediate downpours much more precisely”.

“This disparity potentially affects our readiness and response to the flooding,” Thangaraj has mentioned in post, which was echoed by Stalin in his remarks to the media on Tuesday. The chief minister said people from the four districts, including Chennai, affected by Cyclone Michaung, were saved due to precautionary measures taken by the state government before and after the cyclone, thereby minimising the loss of lives and damage to property.

A note on climate crisis

Thangaraj, while admitting that sudden downpour prediction “is hard in tropical countries”, has stressed that “with more precise warnings, the extent of property damage could have been lessened, and fewer people would have been stranded.”

However, he has reminded everyone that “this is not a time for blame but for collective ownership and action”. Underscoring that these events are “a stark reminder of the escalating climate crisis”, he wrote that the Centre must rethink its approach and take proactive steps.

“Upgrading our forecasting models and communication systems is essential. We must be better equipped to predict and manage such calamities, reducing their devastating effects,” he wrote, adding that “our response to the climate crisis must be swift, effective, and reflect the seriousness of the situation”.

Heaviest in history

Heavy rain battered the southern Tamil Nadu districts of Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Tenkasi, and Kanyakumari on December 17 and 18 even as the state was coping with the relief and rehabilitation of the four districts where Cyclone Michaung wreaked havoc on December 4.

“The rainfall received in Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi was the highest ever recorded in history — in the past 47-60 years. You all know that a year’s rainfall was emptied from the skies in one day. Kayalpattinam alone received 94 cm rainfall,” Stalin told reporters.

Eight state ministers and 10 IAS officers, besides trained state forces and 10 NDRF teams, were involved in the rescue operations in the southern districts. Army help has also been sought, he added. Stalin said he would visit Thoothukudi on Wednesday to oversee the relief and rehab.

So far, 12,653 people have been rescued and lodged in relief camps and they are being taken care of. Also, food is being distributed to the marooned people through helicopters.

Central aid

“We have requested additional funds of Rs 7,033 crore [from the Centre] as interim relief and Rs 12,059 crore as permanent relief for Chennai and suburbs, as this was a major disaster. And we have commenced the distribution of relief of Rs 6,000 to each family in the four affected districts without waiting for the central funds,” he said.

Complete relief work could be carried out only if the Centre provided the funds fully, he said. He will take up this issue and also submit a detailed report on the extent of damage in the southern districts to Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his meeting on Tuesday night and seek additional central assistance, he said.

(With agency inputs)