Kerala bypolls: Rebel trouble for Congress in Palakkad, Chelakkara

“Dr P Sarin has been a hardcore anti-communist since his medical college days. Back in the mid-2000s, he was actively against us at Kozhikode Medical College. Later, we saw him join the Congress. Even three days ago, he was attacking us on social media - and not just lightly, he really goes below the belt,” said an SFI leader from Palakkad.

He added, “But if the party decides to field him as our candidate in Palakkad, what choice do we have?”

The leader's remarks come amid reports that Sarin, the Congress digital media cell head, may rebel and be backed as a Left candidate. Sarin was later expelled from the Congress and he is all set to be the Left-backed candidate in the bypoll.

Also Read: Kerala bypolls: With Priyanka effect, Congress eyes big win in Wayanad, 2 other seats

This captures the general sentiment within the Left camp after the CPI(M) decided to potentially back Dr P Sarin, a Congress rebel, as their candidate in Palakkad. He will face off against Rahul Mankoottathil, the state Youth Congress president, in a constituency where the communists have finished third in the last two assembly elections. The Left’s last victory in Palakkad was in 2006, when trade unionist KK Divakaran won the seat.

“It’s true that we finished third in the last two elections, and the BJP has been steadily gaining ground here. This is a strategic decision, considering we’re aware of internal troubles within both the Congress and the BJP. Backing Sarin, a well-known face in the constituency, seems like a smart move under the circumstances,” a highly-placed leader in the CPI(M) told The Federal. “We might not fully benefit from the situation if we field a party candidate, but it comes with its own risks,” he added.

Congress accuses Sarin of opportunism

After expelling Sarin from the party, Congress leaders accused him of opportunism and chasing greener pastures. Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan alleged that Sarin had held talks with both the BJP and CPI(M) before voicing his objections to the Congress's choice of candidate for Palakkad.

"How can the UDF field someone who has engaged with both the BJP and CPI(M)?" Satheesan asked.

He further claimed that Sarin’s remarks during the press conference echoed a CPI(M) narrative crafted by Minister MB Rajesh.

"Anyone who watched his press conference yesterday would understand why the Congress never even considered him for the Palakkad seat," Satheesan added.

Sarin targets Satheesan

In a press conference, Sarin built a narrative targeting the Leader of the Opposition, accusing the Congress of adopting a soft Hindutva stance by turning its workers against the CPI(M) and making the Left its primary target in the state. He specifically blamed Satheesan for aligning with pro-RSS and BJP sentiments.

Also Read: Wayanad by-election: Priyanka Gandhi will win by record margin, says Cong

"The party is in the hands of a caucus. They do not give space to the party workers to express their opinions. Satheesan has an 'I am the party' attitude," Sarin said.

He also praised the CPI(M) for having a systematic party structure that prioritises the party over individuals.

Congress rebel candidates

Things were cruising smoothly for the Congress, with the state government reeling from anti-incumbency, mismanagement, and political allegations from within, particularly by their own MLA, PV Anvar. The Opposition seemed on track for success, with Priyanka almost assured of victory in Wayanad, a clear advantage in Palakkad, and a fighting chance in the CPI(M) stronghold of Chelakkara. Adding to their momentum, the Congress, in a break from tradition, had announced its candidates unusually early.

Also Read: Anvar says his social collective will focus on Palakkad, Chelakkara for bypolls

The unexpected trouble began once Rahul Mankoottathil was announced as the Palakkad candidate, believed to be nominated by Shafi Parambil, who vacated the seat. Sarin openly protested the decision, triggering unrest. Adding to the turmoil, AICC member NK Sudheer also raised the banner of rebellion, deciding to contest in Chelakkara as an independent against Remya Haridas with the backing of the DMK, the newly-formed party led by former LDF MLA Anvar. Sudheer, who had unsuccessfully contested the Lok Sabha elections from Alathur in 2009, was hoping to secure the ticket from Chelakkara this time.

Anvar’s DMK secretly aligning with BJP?

Interestingly, Anvar’s DMK, which claims to be a social organisation, has raised eyebrows by fielding independent candidates in both Chelakkara and Palakkad. Anvar, now a vocal critic of the government and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has surprisingly chosen to back a Congress rebel and a Muslim candidate in Palakkad - moves that could cut into UDF votes. This has sparked speculation that Anvar might be secretly aligning with the BJP. In contrast, he will not be putting up a candidate against Priyanka in Wayanad.

Many political observers see that the CPI(M) hasn't learned from past mistakes, as they once again seem to be encouraging turncoats instead of mounting a political fight against the BJP in Palakkad. They warn that this strategy could ultimately benefit the saffron party.

Also Read: Priyanka questions RSS-BJP on making hatred a democratic principle, slams remarks against Rahul

Recently, the Palakkad constituency has turned into a BJP stronghold, with the CPI(M) slipping to third place. It’s no secret that Shafi managed to win the last couple of times, especially in 2021, largely due to cross-voting by CPI(M) cadres who wanted to keep the BJP at bay. This time, with Rahul Mankoottathil as an outsider and various inner-party issues plaguing the Congress, the BJP is likely feeling optimistic. With Sarin as the LDF candidate, there’s a possibility of some vote erosion from the Congress, however slight. On the other hand, disgruntled left voters who do not accept Sarin may choose to abstain from voting, or vote for BJP as an extreme measure that could benefit the NDA.

BJP not immune to inner-party issues

The BJP is not immune to inner-party issues surrounding the selection of candidates. There are differing opinions among leaders about whether to field Shobha Surendran, the firebrand woman leader, or C Krishnakumar, who enjoys support from local communities. They are now considering bringing in their state president, K Surendran, as the UDF-LDF dynamics take new twists and turns.

“It’s concerning that both the UDF and LDF are not paying enough attention to the growing threat of the BJP in Palakkad. This could even lead to a repeat of the Thrissur Lok Sabha result, which would be disastrous for the state,” stated a senior Congress leader to The Federal.