Kerala bypolls: With Priyanka effect, Congress eyes big win in Wayanad, 2 other seats

(This copy has been updated with Congress declaring candidates for two Assembly bypolls)

The political scene in Kerala is once again abuzz with excitement as the by-elections loom, particularly in the Wayanad constituency. With Priyanka Gandhi Vadra stepping in as the Congress candidate for the seat vacated by her brother Rahul Gandhi, the party is buoyed by a sense of optimism.

Priyanka's name is already a household one in Wayanad, and the Congress believes that her candidacy will not only ensure a comfortable victory but also help consolidate its position in a state where it has historically been strong as far as the Lok Sabha elections are concerned. They calculate that the "Priyanka effect" may ripple across the other two Assembly seats also going to polls on the same day.

UDF stronghold

Wayanad has been a stronghold of the United Democratic Front (UDF) since its inception, with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) maintaining a significant presence in the constituency. The late M.I. Shanavas of the Congress represented Wayanad as MP in 2009 and 2014. Rahul Gandhi secured the seat in 2019 and 2021 with an impressive margin of over 3.6 lakh votes against Annie Raja of the Communist Party of India (CPI), before relinquishing it to retain Amethi. The CPI may not field Annie Raja this time but is likely to nominate another seasoned woman leader, former MLA E. S. Bijimol. The BJP had fielded its state president K. Surendran against Rahul Gandhi last time but is now considering other candidates.

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The Congress is confident that Priyanka will replicate or even surpass this success, especially given the current political turmoil facing the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF).

The LDF is grappling with multiple issues, ranging from internal dissent spearheaded by P.V. Anvar MLA, to controversies surrounding its leadership. Notably, P.V. Anvar's open revolt and the tragic suicide of an Additional District Magistrate (ADM), allegedly humiliated by a district panchayat president, might cast shadows over the ruling coalition's performance.

Palakkad and Chelakkara

As Wayanad becomes a focal point, the other two Assembly constituencies — Palakkad and Chelakkara — are also gearing up for by-elections. The Congress quickly announced Rahul Mamkootathil (Palakkad) and Ramya Haridas (Chelakkara) as their candidates.

For the CPI(M), winning at least Chelakkara, which is their sitting seat, is crucial to restoring its pride after poor performances in recent general elections. The party holds a majority of 98 out of 140 assembly seats in Kerala but faces significant challenges, not only from the UDF but from the BJP as well, which has been gaining ground in Palakkad.

The CPI(M) is expected to field UR Pradeep, who previously served as MLA from 2016 to 2021 when former minister K. Radhakrishnan, who resigned as MLA to contest the Lok Sabha polls, took a break from parliamentary politics. Chelakkara has traditionally favoured the CPI(M), especially since Radhakrishnan emerged as a prominent leader there in 1996. However, recent electoral trends suggest that this stronghold may be under threat.

Also Read: Wayanad by-election: Priyanka Gandhi will win by record margin, says Cong

BJP's increasing influence

The political dynamics are further complicated by the BJP's increasing influence in Palakkad. Their candidate Shobha Surendran finished second in the previous assembly elections, pushing CPI(M)'s N.N. Krishnadas to third place. In 2021, ‘metro man’ E. Sreedharan's candidacy nearly secured an unexpected victory for the BJP, indicating that they are not to be underestimated. The Congress is fielding Youth Congress leader Rahul, replacing Shafi Parambil, who vacated the seat after becoming the MP from Vadakara. The BJP may opt for either Shobha Surendran or V. Krishnakumar, who performed well in the Lok Sabha elections.

Priyanka Gandhi's candidacy is expected to unify various factions within Congress and rekindle memories of her grandmother Indira Gandhi’s connection with Kerala. Her presence could galvanise minority voters — particularly Muslims — who shifted their support solidly towards the Congress in the last election after years of being courted by CPI(M). This demographic shift could be pivotal for Congress as they aim to reclaim lost ground in Chelakkara as well.

All eyes on Priyanka

Now all eyes will be on Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and how she navigates this political landscape, fraught with challenges and opportunities, in her electoral debut. Her entry into this contest not only represents a chance for Congress to solidify its influence but also serves as a litmus test for LDF’s current standing amidst ongoing controversies.

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The outcome of these elections will not only shape Wayanad's immediate future but also set the tone for Kerala's political climate leading into the 2026 Assembly elections.