Kerala by-poll results: No surprises, but huge blow to BJP’s aspirations

The by-election results from Kerala have delivered mixed signals, offering reasons for both the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-led LDF to celebrate, albeit with varying degrees of enthusiasm.

However, the most significant takeaway is the setback for the BJP in Palakkad, where it was harbouring realistic hopes of victory through its candidate C Krishnakumar.

The BJP not only lost the contest but also failed to match the tally of 50,222 votes in 2021 by more than 10,000 votes.

UDF has reasons to smile

For the United Democratic Front (UDF), the record majority of 18,840 in Palakkad reaffirms its — especially former MLA Shafi Parambil’s — capability to mobilise support across key areas, suggesting a consolidation of its voter base in the constituency.

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On the other hand, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has managed to hold onto its ground in Chelakkara, showing resilience and adaptability amidst a prevailing atmosphere of anti-incumbency.

The victory of UR Pradeep by a margin of 12,201 votes must be a huge sigh of relief for the ruling front, as it garnered 64,827 votes even though he could not match the 83,415 votes K Radhakrishsnan got in 2021.

BJP’s many problems

This result not only reflects the BJP's struggle to convert its growing vote shares in constituencies like Palakkad into tangible victories but also signals the need for a recalibration of its strategies if it hopes to make further inroads in the state.

In Wayanad, the result shows that the LDF did not even put in a significant effort to challenge Congress leader and candidate Priyanka Gandhi.

The LDF leadership will have to answer several questions as senior CPI leader Sathyan Mokeri could not put up a decent fight there. Priyanka surpassed her brother Rahul Gandhi’s 2024 performance but fell short of his 2019 record of more than 4.31 lakhs majority.

Battleground Palakkad

In Palakkad, the defection of young leaders like P Sarin from the Congress to the CPI(M) and Sandeep Varier from the BJP to the Congress had made the contest very peculiar, especially with the CPI(M) fielding Sarin as its candidate.

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Given the distinct political character of the constituencies involved in the election, the UDF victory in Wayanad and Palakkad was largely anticipated, reflecting the entrenched support it enjoys in these regions.

Despite the BJP posing a stiff challenge in recent years, this result can be seen as a vindication for Leader of the Opposition, VD. Satheesan’s stance.

Congress and local body elections

The Congress veteran had faced internal criticism within the party over the selection of the candidate in Palakkad. The victory of youth leader Rahul Mamkoottathil not only rejuvenates the party’s image but also generates momentum as it heads into the upcoming local self-government (LSG) elections and the Assembly elections scheduled for 2026.

Palakkad constituency has historically been a stronghold of the UDF, with the LDF managing to secure the seat only twice since the 1977 delimitation.

In 1996, during the politically charged post-Babri Masjid demolition era, the LDF’s TK Noushad narrowly defeated the seasoned Congress leader CM Sundaram, marking a significant victory for the Left in Palakkad.

LDF’s sporadic showing in Palakkad

But this was short-lived as the UDF regained control of the constituency in 2001.

In 2006, the LDF, buoyed by the wave of support for VS Achuthanandan's leadership across Kerala, reclaimed the Palakkad seat with KK Divakaran hoisting the Red flag again.

Despite these victories, the LDF's success in the constituency has been sporadic, reflecting the presence of the BJP, which has been ruling the Palakkad municipality for more than a decade.

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BJP struggles in Palakkad

As far as the Assembly elections are concerned, the BJP has been emerging as a formidable force ever since their firebrand woman leader Shobha Surendra finished second, pushing CPI(M)’s former MP, NN Krishnadas, to the third place in 2016.

In 2021, by fielding the ‘Metro Man’ E Sreedharan as their surprise candidate, the BJP nearly secured an unexpected victory in the constituency. Ultimately, Shafi Parambil managed to edge out a win, largely due to evident cross-voting in his favour by CPI(M) cadres in several of the communist strongholds.

LDF too is upbeat

“This is an emphatic victory for us, and we were saying from the beginning that the anti-incumbency is so strong that the people have completely rejected the LDF and the BJP. Even in Chelakkara, we significantly reduced the LDF's majority, which is a big achievement,” said K Sudhakaran, the president of the KPCC.

However, the LDF has reasons to celebrate as well, particularly with Pradeep’s emphatic win in Chelakkara, which they can argue as evidence of a lack of anti-incumbency sentiment against the government, though they could not match the towering majority of 39,000 votes Radhakrishnan secured in 2021.

Chelakkara, in particular, emerged as the focal point of this electoral contest, with chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan personally leading the charge, holding seven rallies in the constituency and turning it into a battleground symbolic of the larger political struggle.

LDF’s rise and rise in Chelakkara

The LDF's success in Chelakkara not only bolsters its morale but also reinforces its narrative of effective governance and grassroots connect, countering opposition claims of dissatisfaction among voters.

Chelakkara, a reserved constituency for SC/ST, has traditionally been a Congress stronghold, except in 1982 when CK Chakarapani won it for the CPI(M).

The shift towards CPI(M) began with the emergence of Radhakrishnan as a youth leader in 1996. Radhakrishnan won from Chelakkara in 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2021. In 2016, Pradeep replaced him as Radhakrishnan took on the role of party district secretary of Thrissur.

Fresh turmoil in BJP

In 2021, he was recalled by the party for a cabinet position after his successful term as the Assembly Speaker from 2006 to 2011.

“The Chelakkara result clearly says that there is no anti-incumbency in the state. We were up against all sorts of negative campaign from a combined front of the UDF and the BJP, and we could weather them all. Palakkad's political situation is different. Chelakkara was our sitting seat, and that was the real test. We have emerged victorious there,” said K. Radhakrishnan, a former minister and MP.

The rebellion inside the BJP has already begun as several leaders are set to target state president K Surendran and his team. It has become increasingly difficult to defend the erosion of votes in their stronghold of Palakkad.

Next Assembly battle

For the UDF, the ability to project themselves as the main anti-BJP force in the next elections is crucial as this could be key to securing the minority vote and achieving victory in Kerala.

On the other hand, the CPI(M) can approach the ground with confidence, knowing that they have not lost significant ground despite the setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the lack of minority support.