Manipur | Biren Singh govt runs out of options as no-trust vote threat looms

The Biren Singh-led BJP government in strife-torn Manipur is facing the spectre of being removed through a no-confidence motion as it will now be compelled to convene an Assembly session by February after much vacillation amid growing dissent.

The government is reportedly avoiding convening the session as 19 of the BJP’s Meitei legislators have raised a banner of revolt, effectively reducing it to a minority.

Biren Singh now only has the support of 15 MLAs, including 8 from BJP, 5 from Naga People's Front (NPF), one from JD(U) and one independent, sources close to the regime said.

Also read: Manipur crisis | Why does Biren Singh still enjoy Shah’s backing? It’s complicated

Reduced to minority

In the 60-member Manipur Assembly, the BJP had 32 MLAs after the 2022 Assembly elections. Later, five of the JD(U) MLAs defected to the saffron party. The government also had the support of seven National People's Party (NPP) and five NPF legislators.

The equation changed in October last year after 19 MLAs wrote a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking to change the chief minister (as reported by The Federal). The rebel MLAs have so far neither confirmed nor denied sending the communique to the prime minister.

Subsequently, the NPP also withdrew its support from the Biren Singh government.

It’s due to the diminishing support, sources said, that the government broke the convention of holding the winter session of the House in December.

Only two sittings last year

The Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in the Manipur Legislative Assembly outlines the need for three sittings in a year. Conventionally, the Budget Session is held in February, autumn session in July-August and the winter session in December.

Also read: 'Those indulging in politics over my apology are seeking unrest': Manipur CM Biren Singh

Last year, the Assembly only had two sittings – for 5 days from February 28 and 9 days from July 31.

However, the Constitution of India is silent about the number of sessions to be held in a year. The Article 174 of the Constitution only mandates that the gap between the two sittings cannot exceed six months. This means, a notification convening the Manipur Assembly has to be issued by around January 28 as a minimum of 15-day notice has to be given to summon a House.

The Assembly will be on suspended animation if the Manipur government fails to convene the session within the six months of its last sitting on August 12.

Left with no way out

Moreover, the February session will be the Budget Session. Hence, to continue the financial transactions of the government, a vote on account has to be passed by the Assembly.

Now that the Biren Singh government is left with no option to further delay the Assembly session, an intense political lobbying has started within the BJP.

Biren Singh and his loyalists are reportedly leaving no stone unturned to win back the support of the dissidents. A move is also reportedly on to split the NPP so that its seven MLAs support the government going against the party decision.

Also read: 'I am sorry': After 19 months of bloodshed, Manipur CM Biren Singh apologises

Speaker leading dissidents?

Meanwhile, the Manipur BJP sources said Assembly Speaker Thokchom Satyabrata Singh met Union home minister Amit Shah twice in the past one month. The Speaker, however, could not be contacted, despite repeated attempts. Sources said Satyabrata Singh is leading the dissident group.

Incidentally, BJP sources claimed while Shah gave audience to Satyabrata Singh, he did not meet Biren Singh, when the latter sought the home minister’s appointment for a one-to-one on the sidelines of the North East Council’s plenary meet in Agartala last month. Sources close to the chief minister also corroborated it.

Congress leaders meet governor

Meanwhile, a state Congress delegation called on the new governor, Ajay Kumar Bhalla, on Wednesday and apprised him of the need to convene the Assembly session to avoid a Constitutional crisis.

Former Manipur Chief Minister Ibobi Singh, state Congress chief K Meghachandra and Lok Sabha member Angomcha Bimol Akoijam met the governor.

They further told the governor that the state government should be instructed to ensure the presence of Kuki legislators in the House when it next meets. Kuki legislators have not attended the session citing security reasons ever since the ethnic violence broke out in the state in May 2023.

Also read: Manipur crisis solution will take time due to fragile situation: CM Biren Singh

The Congress has five members in the Assembly. “That not all is well in the BJP legislature party is an open secret now. Many BJP MLAs and even ministers have openly blamed the chief minister for the failure to defuse the present crisis. Conventionally, even if one minister among the council of ministers, raises questions about the functioning of the government, it can be a ground for initiating a no-confidence motion against the government. Fearing this prospect, the government might be dilly-dallying the Assembly session,” Meghachandra told The Federal.

In the past, Biren Singh has managed to wither many such rebellions within the party. It is to be seen whether he can do so again.