Manipur crisis | Why does Biren Singh still enjoy Shah’s backing? It’s complicated

Towards the end of June 2023, almost two months after ethnic violence broke out in Manipur, speculation was rife that Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh would soon tender his resignation. After much political spectacle enacted by his loyalists, Singh said on his X handle, “At this crucial juncture, I wish to clarify that I will not be resigning from the post of Chief Minister.” That was on June 30, 2023.

Since then, and in the face of increasing calls for his resignation from political circles and various community groups and leaders, Singh has continued to hold his office despite a tumultuous period marked by ethnic violence and political unrest. The demand has become even shriller with the recent incidents of violence.

A year and a half of violence

The chilling recovery of the bodies of six members of a Meitei family — including an infant, a two-year-old boy, and an eight-year-old girl — gruesomely murdered after being taken hostage by suspected Kuki militants in Jiribam and the brutal killing of a woman from the Hmar tribe, mother of three little children and a school teacher by profession, by suspected Valley-based militants in Jiribam’s Zairawn village have ignited a fresh round of unrest and violence in Manipur, including a renewed demand for Singh’s resignation.

Before this, 19 BJP MLAs have approached their central leadership seeking Singh’s removal. A letter was reportedly submitted to the Prime Minister’s Office by disgruntled MLAs.

The most recent call for the resignation of all MLAs in Manipur seems to have had no effect on the chief minister. This has raised questions about why Singh has resisted stepping down, despite mounting public pressure, and why Union Home Minister Amit Shah appears to be supporting him. Political observers are still wondering what could be the possible reasons behind Singh’s resilience in office, the possible motivations behind Shah’s support, and the implications of their alliance for Manipur’s ongoing crisis and future.

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Singh’s political resilience and local influence

Singh has established himself as a prominent political figure in Manipur, wielding significant influence due to his political strategies and connections. A former journalist, elected to the state Assembly in 2002 on a Democratic Revolutionary Peoples Party (DRPP) ticket, and later a Congress member who finally joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Singh has been instrumental in expanding the BJP’s foothold in the North East in general and Manipur in particular.

Traditionally, Manipur used to be a Congress bastion and dominated by regional and Congress-affiliated parties. Singh’s defection to the BJP and subsequent success in consolidating support in Manipur positioned him as a linchpin for the party’s North East strategy, aligning closely with the BJP’s national agenda.

In recent years, Singh has cultivated a reputation as a leader who advocates for the Meitei community, a major ethnic group in the Valley regions of Manipur. His policies and rhetoric have largely aligned with Valley dwellers despite his innovative “Go to Hills” campaign, a stance that has won him support from this constituency and larger Valley communities.

However, this also sparked concerns among the minority groups, such as the Kuki-Zo communities, who fear exclusion and marginalization. Singh’s refusal to resign, despite widespread demand, may be partly due to his perceived role as a representative of Meitei interests and his belief that stepping down could weaken his community’s position in the ongoing backdoor negotiations and power structures within the state.

Shah’s calculated support and national security considerations

Shah’s support for Singh can be viewed as strategic and informed by the broader national security and political imperatives of the Centre. His most popular remark on the floor of the Parliament was “This CM is cooperating”.

As Home Minister, Shah is responsible for India’s internal security, particularly in sensitive regions such as the North East, where divisions created by ethnic elites and armed political movements have posed significant challenges for decades. Manipur’s proximity to India’s border with Myanmar and its history of armed insurgency make it a critical region for maintaining national stability and preventing foreign interference.

Also read: Manipur: AFSPA re-imposed in restive Jiribam, 5 other areas

Preference for stability over reform

Shah’s backing of Singh likely stems from a misplaced desire to avoid further destabilization in terms of New Delhi’s relationship with the people of Manipur, including its armed rebel groups. Whoever is advising Shah seems to think that removing Singh could create a power vacuum, intensify armed insurgency and ethnic hostilities, and weaken the BJP’s control in Manipur, undermining the party’s gains in the region.

Given that Manipur plays a strategic role in India’s “Act East” policy—intended to strengthen ties with Southeast Asia—Shah and the Centre may be viewing Singh as a known entity whose removal could bring unpredictable outcomes. This preference for stability over reform has been evident in Shah’s interactions with other North Eastern leaders, indicating a broader strategy that favours continuity, even amid controversy.

Political alliance and mutual interests

The relationship between Shah and Singh is not only political but also strategic, grounded in mutual interests that extend beyond Manipur. The BJP’s expansion into the North East has been a priority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah, who see the region as key to consolidating the party’s national reach.

Singh, as the first BJP chief minister in Manipur, has been crucial in creating an image of the BJP as a party capable of governing in regions with diverse cultures and complex histories. His administration, despite its controversies, symbolizes the BJP’s attempts to integrate the North East into its larger Hindu nationalist vision while maintaining local alliances.

For Shah, Singh represents a regional ally who can enforce the BJP’s agenda in Manipur and counteract the influence of the Congress and regional parties. Shah’s support is likely reinforced by Singh’s loyalty to the BJP leadership and his commitment to aligning Manipur’s policies with the party’s goals, particularly regarding security, cultural integration, and infrastructural development. This alignment allows Shah to maintain a firm grip on the region without direct interference, relying instead on Singh to manage local affairs while ensuring the BJP’s objectives are met.

Also read: Manipur: Women again used as targets as fresh violence erupts; Centre rushes 2,000 police personnel

Ethnic tensions and the perception of partiality

One of the core issues in Manipur’s ongoing conflict is the perception of partiality within the government’s handling of broader issues. The violence between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities has highlighted supposedly long-standing grievances related to land, identity, and political representation.

Many Kuki-Zo groups accuse Singh’s administration of favouring the Meitei majority, particularly in policies relating to land rights and state resources. Civil society organizations, both within Manipur and outside, argue that Singh’s government has not done enough to address people’s grievances and that his administration’s actions have, in some cases, fuelled further animosity between ethnic communities.

However, very few political analysts have asked why the 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs, of whom at least five belong to the BJP and the rest to its allies such as JD(U), Kuki People’s Alliance (KPA), and Independents — had supported Singh and his government.

Even after the ongoing ethnic violence broke out last year, they have levelled serious charges against the chief minister while not questioning their own party’s ideology or why the BJP’s central leadership refuses to entertain the Kuki demand for a “separate administration” or even sack Singh from the chief minister’s chair.

The risk of losing Meitei support

Despite all the existent political confusion, there is a perception of inaction and partiality. This has led to demands for Singh’s resignation as a way to restore neutrality and establish an administration that can mediate fairly between the communities.

However, for Shah, supporting Singh may be a way to preserve the BJP’s voter base among the Meitei population, ensuring that the party retains influence in the state, which is crucial for its North East strategy. This political calculation underscores the tension between addressing local grievances and maintaining regional power, with Shah favouring the latter in his decision to support Singh.

But the ground reality is different now. The BJP is gradually losing support, as it was evident during the Lok Sabha election earlier this year, when the Congress defeated the BJP candidate — a minister in Singh’s council of ministers — by over one lakh votes from the Valley-based Inner Manipur constituency dominated by Meitei voters.

The Congress triumph came at a time when almost all regional and national political pundits thought it had been uprooted from the North East, including Manipur. The win did not mean the Congress was gaining ground, but that the people had rejected the policies pushed by both the BJP-led Centre and the state.

Also read: Manipur: BJP-led NDA MLAs call for 'mass operation' against Kuki militants

Potential risks and future implications

The North East has always been a sensitive region for India, with its unique ethnic composition, history of armed insurgencies, and strategic border location. In recent years, the BJP has increased its focus on integrating the North East, both economically and culturally, into the rest of India to counteract regional isolation and prevent influences from neighbouring countries, particularly China and Myanmar.

While Shah has been careful to avoid any drastic measures in Manipur that could disrupt the BJP’s progress in the region, he has not realised that the Centre’s failure to find durable peace in Manipur is sinking deep. The perception of favouritism towards certain communities and the refusal to address their specific grievances could lead to further polarization, with each of the ethnic groups losing faith in the state’s capacity to provide impartial governance. If the Centre fails to address these tensions effectively, there is a risk of alienating not only the already marginalised population in Manipur but also other North Eastern communities that might view the BJP’s approach as divisive.

Furthermore, Singh’s continuation in office amid significant unrest raises questions about governance standards and accountability. The persistence of calls for his resignation from multiple stakeholders indicates a need for a re-evaluation of leadership, as the Manipur crisis highlights underlying issues that require a collaborative and inclusive approach. If the BJP and Shah continue to support Singh without addressing these core issues, they may face a decline in support not only in Manipur but potentially across other North Eastern states too.