Bangladesh: Yunus takes over, but it's a Herculean task for him to restore normalcy

The Bangladesh Army’s choice of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the head of the interim caretaker government seems to be an attempt to assure the outside world that stability and normalcy are being restored in the violence-torn country. But that is easier said than done.

The student leaders who spearheaded a people’s movement to force Sheikh Hasina out of the prime minister’s chair had suggested his name. The students say they want to create a new Bangladesh by discarding the past political practices. They want to have a say in the composition of the interim government and also in future governments.

But if they insist on doing so, it may create a problem for political parties. They are aware of the immense popularity of the students and have praised them for their courage to end Hasina’s long rule.

Opposition hungry to be back in power

But the political parties have also withstood Hasina’s repression for over 16 years, as their business, political and social life suffered. They have been out of power for too long and are eager to get back to form a government and run the country.

They will not like to yield space to students and allow them to decide their future Cabinet.

Already, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main Opposition, and its close ally, the Jamaat-e-Islami, and other parties that were marginalized under Hasina’s rule have started preparing to deal with the changed political scenario.

BNP on unstable ground

Former prime minister and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia and her son Tarique Rahman, the party's de facto leader, have addressed party workers over the past few days, asking them to be prepared for the task ahead.

Khaleda, sentenced to 17 years by Hasina on graft charges, was released this week, and Tarique, who has been in self-imposed exile in London, is preparing to return to Dhaka.

If the BNP wins a majority of the seats when elections are held, Tarique Rahman may be the natural choice for the prime minister’s post, considering that his mother is 78 and ailing.

But that may lead to serious resentment among some leaders, especially those who suffered the repression of the Hasina government while Tarique was in the safety of his house in London.

All eyes on interim government

For now, though, speculation is on how early the caretaker government will call for elections and disband itself. This will also depend on when the army thinks the situation has stabilized for getting a regular government in place.

Currently, the army is in control and backing the caretaker government headed by Yunus until elections are held to form a new government.

Yunus, the creator of the famed microcredit agency Grameen Bank, had helped pull millions of poor people out of poverty in Bangladesh.

He is a respected economist who is well known in the United States and Europe, the main markets for Bangladesh’s garment export, which is the country’s major revenue-earner.

Yunus is also respected in India and the success of the Grameen Bank has been an inspiration for those who work in the rural sector.

Why Yunus?

Choosing him immediately after Hasina’s inglorious departure is an attempt to spite her as well. Hasina’s running battle with Yunus was widely known in the country and beyond.

She had forced him to step down as Grameen Bank chief and instituted an investigation against Yunus for labour law violation for which he was awarded a six-month jail sentence in January.

Hasina regarded Yunus an America-backed potential rival as he was toying with the idea of floating a political party in 2007 and also for his close ties with Bill and Hilary Clinton.

Some political observers even believe Yunus’s name as the head of the caretaker government was done on Washington’s suggestion.

An appellate tribunal on Wednesday set aside the jail sentence after Yunus’s name was announced as the head of the caretaker government.

Yunus faces tough task

However, restoring normalcy will not be an easy task for Yunus and the interim government. In the recent clashes between protesters and security forces, over 300 people were killed and hundreds injured. The death toll is rising with the discovery of new bodies, and as many with fatal injuries are succumbing to their death.

Yunus will find it a big challenge to revive the economy. Hasina could manage to make others gloss over several of her shortcomings when she ruled because the economy had steadily grown for several years.

She was praised and supported by many governments, investors, and businesses for providing stability and growth to Bangladesh.

Perfect recipe for dissent

But as the economy slowed in a post-pandemic period, the political crisis at home resurfaced, with regular street protests and demonstrations by political parties.

In the changed circumstances, the strong-arm tactics Hasina employed to stamp out dissent and marginalise the Opposition were not enough for people not to talk about her rampant corruption, fraud, and serial election manipulation.

As inflation rose and the income gap widened further, the anger and frustration against Hasina and the accumulated anti-incumbency created the perfect recipe for the background in which the students’ protest was held. Her brutality in suppressing the protest soon turned it into a people’s uprising to finally drive Hasina out of power and Bangladesh.

India’s challenge

For India, which had failed to read the situation and the rising resentment and frustration against Hasina as it continued to showcase her as its most valued partner in South Asia, the current situation in the neighbouring country is challenging.

India has given time to Hasina to decide her future while she has been provided a safe house in India. She may choose the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia as her future residence as many South Asian leaders have done in the past.

However, it is not clear what India will do if she cannot go to these countries or elsewhere.

Hasina spent six years of her life in India after her father Mujibur Rahman and most of her family members were killed in a military coup in 1975. But the current situation is different, as a demand for putting Hasina on trial for human rights violation, election fraud, and rampant corruption is made by many in Bangladesh.

Her continuance in India can be a sticking point as India waits for the dust to settle and re-engage with the new dispensation in Dhaka.

The Jamaat question

There are also questions about the Awami League and how well it can reinvent itself without Hasina.

The other problem for India may be dealing with the Jamaat. India has demonized the Jamaat as an extreme religious fundamentalist group with a history of working against Indian interest. But Jamaat is an essential component of the BNP as it provides the party with street support and muscle power.

When temples and Hindu houses in Bangladesh came under attack, the Jamaat leaders came out with a statement saying its cadres have been instructed to ensure the safety of the religious minorities and their temples and houses.

It is not clear how that message was received in New Delhi.

But, for normalcy in Bangladesh to return, the army will have to return to their barracks and the students to the campus and leave elected political leaders to run the country.