NDA takes OBC route for revival plan through Maharashtra polls

The recently-concluded Haryana election, in which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) registered a spectacular victory against its arch rival Congress, has taught the ruling party a crucial lesson. The message for the BJP is simple: If it is able to consolidate its voter base and chip away a small portion of the social base of the Congress, then it can do wonders in the electoral politics.

Relying on its experience in Haryana, where the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) proved to be the backbone of the BJP’s victory, the party central leadership is trying to carefully stitch together a social coalition in Maharashtra that also revolves around the OBCs.

The first list of 99 candidates released by the BJP for the Maharashtra polls clearly suggests that it is focussing on the OBCs while giving representation to other communities as well. Of the 99 names announced by the BJP in its first list, 30 candidates belong to the OBC community.

NDA hopes to regain lost ground

The upcoming Maharashtra elections are crucial for the BJP and its partners within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) because the NDA is hoping to regain the political ground it lost to the Congress-led INDIA bloc in the state during the Lok Sabha polls.

The below-par performance of the BJP in Maharashtra was a huge setback for the BJP-led NDA because the ruling alliance could only win 17 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats. Although the NDA managed to get 43.5 per cent votes in the state, the loss of seats in Maharashtra was one of the crucial reasons for the BJP failing to get a majority on its own.

Also read: Why future of top political leaders is at stake in Maharashtra Assembly polls

“The Maharashtra elections are very important for the BJP and, after the Haryana polls, there is a belief in the cadre that they can reverse the perception that the BJP is on a downward slide in Maharashtra,” a senior BJP leader from Maharashtra who is involved in the election campaign, told The Federal.

“This is also true because if we look at the Lok Sabha numbers, the NDA was leading in 137 Assembly segments while the INDIA bloc was leading in 151. The vote-share difference between the NDA and INDIA was minimal because the NDA got 43.5 per cent votes and INDIA got 43.7 per cent votes. The loss, however, was in the number of seats, as NDA could only win 17, which was a huge setback. The cadre and leadership now believe that they can reverse this loss in the state polls,” the leader said.

OBC-centric campaign

While the BJP is known to rely on its OBC support base to win elections, going by the BJP’s strategy, the party normally gives 30–35 per cent seats to the OBC candidates in Assembly elections and in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the number can go up to 40 per cent of the candidates.

The biggest challenge for the NDA is that the Shiv Sena under Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar lost a considerable portion of their voter base to former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar during the Lok Sabha polls.

Even though the BJP managed to protect its own voter base and suffered a minor loss of one percentage point in Maharashtra, its alliance members did not enjoy the same strength. Since the BJP is planning to contest over 150–155 seats in Maharashtra, which is more than 50 percent, it wants to consolidate its voter base, which mainly has the upper caste and OBC communities — mainly Mali, Vanjari, and Dhangar.

Also read: Poll ploy? Classical language tag for Marathi just ahead of election raises the doubt

“If the BJP wants to win this election, it has no choice but to rely on the votes of the OBC communities. The OBC community is the strength of the BJP and all its plans revolve around the OBC community in Maharashtra. I am sure that if the BJP wants to win the polls, its campaign strategy will focus on the OBC community,” Laxman Hake, a social activist who has led the campaign against Maratha reservation demand, told The Federal.

Maratha quota factor

Political analysts believe that the BJP’s campaign is going back to its basics and relying on the old tested formula of creating a social alliance of OBCs and upper castes. However, the inability of the BJP leadership to tackle the Maratha reservation demand and counter-polarisation of the OBC community against the demand created electoral problems for the BJP in Lok Sabha polls.

“The OBC communities of Mali, Vanjari, and Dhangar have traditionally been the backbone of the BJP in Maharashtra. These three communities are the biggest OBC communities of Maharashtra and together they are called MADHAV (MA is for Mali, DHA is for Dhangar, and V is for Vanjari). The OBC communities, together with the upper caste, form a considerable force in Maharashtra and have the capacity to challenge the electoral strength of Maratha community,” Mrudul Nile, professor at Mumbai University, told The Federal.

Fear of Constitution change

Apart from being caught in a tussle between two prominent communities, Marathas and OBCs, the BJP leadership also faced a challenge from the perception that it was planning to change the Constitution if it managed to get more than 400 legislators in the Lok Sabha.

With the Assembly elections just a few weeks away, the NDA is planning to implement the Supreme Court judgement on the sub-categorisation of Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) in reservation. If the decision is implemented, Maharashtra will be the second state after Haryana to implement the decision.

Watch: Maharashtra: 'BJP may try to get CM’s post after polls' | Central Focus

As a result of the perception of the people and campaign of the Opposition parties led by Congress that the Constitution will be changed and reservation policy will also be modified, the NDA suffered as the votes of the Scheduled Caste communities shifted in favour of the INDIA bloc.

Reaching out to Dalits, Buddhists

Taking corrective measures before the polls, the BJP is now reaching out to Dalits with the help of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) members to change this perception. Senior BJP leaders are hopeful that the result of the Maharashtra elections will end the Opposition’s campaign that the NDA was trying to make changes to the Constitution.

In an effort to reach out to the Dalit and Buddhist communities in Maharashtra, which is around 14 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively, efforts are being made to convince the communities that they need not worry about their rights.

“We have carried out a month-long campaign in villages and colonies where the Scheduled Caste (SC) community is in the majority and places where Buddhists populations live. We have met the community members and tried to explain to them that they need not fear about their rights and reservation benefits,” Nilesh Gadre, an RSS member associated with the campaign, told The Federal.

Govt policies “for weaker sections”

“We have also explained to them all the policies of the government of providing bank accounts, cooking gas cylinders, and Mudra loans are for the benefit of the financially and socially weaker sections. The month-long campaign was carried out in the name of Samvidhan Jagar Yatra with the help of over 200 organisations,” he added.

The BJP is not alone in its efforts to reach out to the Dalits in the Maharashtra polls. Alliance partner Shiv Sena under Shinde has also reached out to Jogendra Kawade, president of Peoples Republican Party (PRP).

“We are confident that the alliance with Kawade will help the NDA, especially the Shiv Sena, in the Vidarbha region. These are small parties but they have dedicated people, and Kawade is not only followed by the Scheduled Caste community but also other social groups,” Shiv Sena MP Shrirang Appa Chandu Barne told The Federal.