Why future of top political leaders is at stake in Maharashtra Assembly polls

The upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra will not only hold the key to the state’s future but will also be a litmus test for several top political leaders in the aftermath of the splits in two regional forces – Shiv Sena and NCP.

The poll verdict will significantly influence the political future of top leaders like Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar, Devendra Fadnavis and Nana Patole. The stakes are particularly high for the both the factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP, as the outcome will have a long term impact on their politics.

It was NCP (SP) patriarch Sharad Pawar who had joined hands with Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in 2019, in what was seen by many as a template for Opposition unity. However, the BJP countered the move by backing rebels within these regional parties and causing a split in them in quick succession to form the Mahayuti government in the state in 2022.

Also Read: Graphic Explainer | Maharashtra polls: Six regions, and their electoral dynamics

Both Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray ended up losing their official party status. Since then the two leaders have been working to rebuild their respective parties under new names and symbols. The performance of NCP (SP) and Sena (UBT) in the recent Lok Sabha elections, with Thackeray winning 9 seats and Pawar 8, demonstrated their continued ground support. However, the Assembly elections pose a more crucial test.

The Federal takes you through the challenges that these leaders are up against in these Assembly elections, which are the first in the new political landscape of Maharashtra.

Devendra Fadnavis

Fadnavis was the face of the BJP’s campaign in the 2019 Assembly polls in Maharashtra and had announced ‘Me Punha Yein’ (‘I will be back’). However, it wasn’t meant to be. The BJP fell well short of majority mark with 105 MLAs in the 288-member Assembly and the undivided Shiv Sena refused to back him while putting forth its claim on the CM’s post.

Fadnavis did stage a comeback three years later in 2022, but as the deputy chief minister when the BJP engineered a split in Shiv Sena and formed the government in alliance with Sena rebels led by Eknath Shinde after the fall of the MVA regime. Holding home portfolio in the state, he has been on the backfoot for the last couple of years due to law and order problems in the state. He has also been on the target of Maratha quota stir leader Manoj Jarange-Patil.

The BJP’s poor show during the Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra, in which the party’s tally dropped from 23 in 2019 to mere 9 in 2024, has only added to his woes. It was seen as a reflection of his apparent inability to pull the party amid alliance troubles and a raging Maratha quota row. He was also blamed for selecting the wrong candidates as the BJP high command was said to have allowed him the final say.

However, Fadnavis is in the public eye more than any other BJP leader in the state as the party's face and its articulate voice. He would have to prove his mettle as he has the formidable task to steer his party to victory. He has his leadership at stake in these elections whose outcome will decide whether he gets to be CM again.

Eknath Shinde

Riding high on the success of his Shiv Sena faction in the Lok Sabha polls, Shinde is now looking forward to cement his place in Maharashtra politics.

Shinde-led Sena emerged victorious on 7 of 15 seats it contested in the Lok Sabha polls, which came as a shot in the arm for him, particularly in light of the fact that the BJP fell short of majority mark and secured only 240 Lok Sabha seats.

Also Read: Maharashtra | BJP's first list of 99 candidates out; Fadnavis fielded from Nagpur South West

Significantly, his party also won Sena vs Sena battles and trounced the rival faction led by Uddhav Thackeray in more than half a dozen seats in the Lok Sabha polls. His supporters contended that this was a proof that Shinde Sena has the backing of not just the cadres but the voters too.

With a slew of welfare measures like the Mukhya Mantri Ladki Bahin Yojana, Shinde has set his sights on winning the maximum number of seats and have another shot as the state’s chief minister. However, his party also faces a threat of disintegration if it doesn’t win a sizable number of seats. The Uddhav-led faction has been on the offensive against Shinde Sena, terming them as 'traitors' and accusing them of corruption and opportunism.

Shinde has established himself as a better election manager than his two deputies, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, who failed to deliver for their parties in the general elections. His Shiv Sena faction secured a 12.95% vote share in the LS polls. He is bargaining hard with the BJP for a larger share of seats in the Assembly elections.

Ajit Pawar

Ajit Pawar is staring at the biggest political challenge of his career to keep his NCP faction afloat, especially after its disastrous showing in the Lok Sabha polls. The NCP drew flak from the BJP and the Sangh Parivar for weighing down the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha polls.

His NCP faction delivered the worst performance among the Mahayuti allies in the Lok Sabha polls, with the party winning only 1 of 4 Lok Sabha seats it contested. Moreover, his wife Sunetra Pawar also suffered defeat at the hands of Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule in the family bastion of Baramati.

Ajit has the support of 45 legislators, but many of them are concerned about their political future. There are reports that some of his MLAs may return to the Sharad Pawar camp and may contest the Assembly polls on NCP (SP) ticket. His MLAs feel that the public sympathy is with Sharad Pawar after the split in NCP. They are also apprehensive that he may replicate the Lok Sabha poll success with his alliance strategy.

To add to his trouble, support for Ajit Pawar is also on the decline in the ruling Mahayuti alliance, as his aides are not sure if Ajit will himself will win the elections if Sharad Pawar fields his grandnephew, Yugendra Pawar, from Baramati.

Among all the political leaders, the poll outcome will be the most critical for Ajit Pawar because if he fails to get an adequate number of seats, it will pose an existential crisis for him as a party leader.

Also Read: Maharashtra | Ajit Pawar our 'captain', will contest from Baramati, says Bhujbal

However, despite facing challenges in his uncle's stronghold, Ajit Pawar has hired a political consultant and launched a campaign targeting women voters. Being the finance minister of the state, he hopes to cash in on Ladki Bahin Yojana launched by the Mahayuti regime ahead of the polls.

Uddhav Thackeray

Known for his oratory and ability to develop a narrative against the Opposition, Uddhav Thackeray is a crucial figure for MVA.

However, he needs to learn from his mistakes in candidate selection in the past and rely less on the sympathy wave to improve his party’s performance against the rival Shinde Sena.

The Lok Sabha poll results were a mixed bag for Shiv Sena (UBT), as the party won 9 of 21 LS seats it contested. However, stakes will be much higher during Assembly elections and Sena (UBT) will be yet again banking on anti-incumbency sentiment. With MVA doing well, Uddhav might also succeed in luring back some of his lost flock from the Shinde camp.

As these are the first Assembly elections after the Sena split in 2022, it will be a litmus test for both the Sena factions, though all eyes will be on Uddhav as he carries forward the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. He will be looking for redemption as someone who recast a party founded on hardline Hindutva ideals to make common cause with Congress and NCP (SP).

The result will also show if Shinde's charge that the Thackerays reneged on party founder Balasaheb Thackeray’s core values has stuck. So far the Sena (UBT) has held on to its ground. Thackeray is now in a position to be the Opposition’s CM face but only numbers will ensure he can make the cut.

Also Read: Will back any CM nominated by Cong or NCP to 'save' Maharashtra: Uddhav

Sharad Pawar

At 84, Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar proved his political acumen in the Lok Sabha polls by leading the NCP (SP) to win 8 of 10 seats the party contested in the state.

Known as the architect of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the octogenarian also proved that it’s not end of the road for him in politics despite 44 of his legislators deserting him following Ajit Pawar’s rebellion. Defying his age, he took the state by storm to rebuild his party and the results were there to see for everyone in the Lok Sabha polls. His NCP faction contested 10 seats and won 8, making it the best strike rate among the MVA allies. Pawar even ensured the defeat of Ajit's wife Sunetra Pawar in the high-stakes LS poll battle in his home turf Baramati.

He capitalised on Maratha angst and kept the narrative focused on issues such as rural distress and the targeting of political rivals by government agencies. His issue-based campaigning steered MVA to securing victory in 30 of 48 Lok Sabha seats.

In view of his success in the Lok Sabha polls, many of Ajit Pawar’s MLAs are now trying to make their way back to his camp. Sharad Pawar is confident that the MVA will wrest power from the Mahayuti alliance.

Sharad Pawar has been particularly active in western Maharashtra, creating a buzz and winning over several leaders from the ruling BJP and Ajit Pawar-led NCP.

Also Read: Maharashtra people eager for political change; will be reflected in poll outcome: Sharad Pawar

Nana Patole

Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole faces a challenge to not only clinch the polls but also to ensure that his party gains the leadership stature within the MVA.

Patole is confident that the grand old party will repeat its notable Lok Sabha polls performance in the Assembly polls and the Haryana mandate will not have any impact on their poll prospects in Maharashtra.

Patole is trying hard to get a good bargain for the Congress in the seat-sharing talks with the MVA allies and even ended up trading barbs with Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut over Vidarbha seats. According to him, it should not be difficult for the Maha Vikas Aghadi to win 180 assembly seats out of 288, if they get their seat-sharing arrangement right.

In the Lok Sabha elections, Congress contested 17 seats and won 13, apart from a rebel Congress candidate’s triumph on one of the seats. A hardcore grassroots-level political worker, Patole is vociferous on the issues of agrarian distress and corruption. He has often targeted the BJP government at the Centre for its “anti-farmer policies”. The biggest challenge for him would be take everyone along in the party and also ensure smooth coordination with other MVA allies – Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP).