Maharashtra | Will smaller political players upset poll arithmetic of MVA, Mahayuti?

While the two rival alliances – the Congress-led MVA and the BJP-led Mahayuti – are battling it out in the electoral arena for upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections, there are some smaller political outfits that could affect the poll prospects of these alliances.

There is a strong possibility of small players emerging as kingmaker this time, as the political landscape is more fragmented with the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) splitting up over the last couple of years.

Parties like Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), and Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) might spoil the party for the Mahayuti and the MVA, and may even hold the key to power in case of a fractured mandate.

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Political analysts don’t rule out the possibility of smaller parties and Independents getting somewhere around 30 seats. These MLAs will play a decisive role, if there is a hung Assembly in Maharashtra.

As per the Election Commission of India, a total of 4,136 candidates are in the fray for the November 20 Maharashtra Assembly polls, which is almost 28 per cent more than the last elections. There are as many as 2,086 independent contenders among them.

Secured 10% seats in 2019 polls

In the 2019 Assembly elections, smaller parties won 29 seats and their candidates finished as runners-up in 63 constituencies, underscoring their strength and potential impact.

In a contest dominated by the two main alliances (BJP-Shiv Sena and Congress-NCP), four smaller parties made a mark, collectively finishing third in 157 out of 288 constituencies. The BSP, VBA, MNS and AIMIM emerged as political players who could not be ignored in Maharashtra’s politics, though each one of them have varying levels of influence and support across the state.

These parties could play a spoilsport in the 48 constituencies where their 2019 vote share percentage exceeded the margin percentage of victory. Their performance in these seats could well determine the election’s outcome, particularly in close contests, the possibility of which is high in view of the large number of rebels and independent candidates in the poll fray. These political players have the potential to upset the calculations of both MVA and Mahayuti.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS)

With Marathi identity at the core of its ideology, the MNS led by Raj Thackeray has traditionally been a force to reckon with, particularly in urban areas like Mumbai and its suburbs.

Also read: BJP still firm on backing Raj Thackeray's son in Mahim seat: Fadnavis

The MNS is posing a challenge to both the rival alliances, though it has been on “friendly terms” with the BJP since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The party is contesting 25 out of 36 seats in Mumbai and will be a key factor in at least 36 other constituencies in the state. Of the 25 seats which the MNS is contesting in Mumbai, the Shinde Sena has fielded its candidates on 12 seats followed by the BJP on 10.

The tacit understanding between the MNS and the BJP became evident when the latter initially decided to support Raj Thackeray’s son Amit in Mahim Assembly seat instead of backing Shinde Sena candidate Sadanand Sarvankar. Later, the BJP fell in line and said it will support Sarvankar who is the official candidate of Mahayuti alliance.

Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA)

Led by BR Ambedkar’s grandson Prakash Ambedkar, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) is a coalition of smaller parties primarily appealing to Dalits, Buddhist Dalits, Muslims and other marginalised communities.

The VBA has the potential to affect the poll prospects of bigger parties, which became evident in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls when it contributed to the defeat of the MVA in 4 Lok Sabha seats as its candidates polled more than the winning margin of the Mahayuti alliance. The VBA had contested 35 of 48 Lok Sabha seats.

Also read: ‘Batenge toh katenge’ slogan divides Mahayuti days ahead of Maharashtra polls

Now, the VBA has fielded 67 candidates in Maharashtra, mainly in Mumbai and Vidharbha region. The VBA has shown its electoral strength in previous elections, particularly in regions like Vidarbha and Marathwada.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, the VBA drew a blank but garnered a 7% vote share.

If the VBA manages to attract a substantial number of Dalit votes (Maharashtra has 14% Dalit population), it could weaken the MVA's traditional support base, potentially benefiting the Mahayuti.

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)

Though known for its influence in Telangana, the Hyderabad-based AIMIM led by Asaduddin Owaisi holds considerable clout in parts of Maharashtra, particularly Aurangabad and Mumbai, where Muslims are a sizeable number.

The AIMIM seems to have reworked its strategy for the Maharashtra Assembly elections this time, which doesn’t augur well for the Congress-led MVA. Apparently focusing on its best bets, the party is contesting only 16 seats, its lowest ever, which is less than half as compared to 44 in the 2019 Assembly polls.

The party’s ability to attract Muslim voters could split Muslim votes, a bloc that the Congress-led MVA coalition is banking on.

Also read: Our ancestors did jihad against Britishers, but yours penned 'love letters': Owaisi to Fadnavis

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)

The BSP is going solo in Maharashtra and has fielded its candidates on 237 out of 288 seats.

In the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections, the BSP contested the highest number of seats at 262 but failed to make a significant impact, securing just 0.91 per cent of the votes. The party finished third only in only 12 out of 262 constituencies it contested.

However, even the BSP, with its base among marginalised communities, could impact outcomes in close contests, especially if it consolidates its resources in a smaller number of target constituencies.